Buy American and Hire American

When this blogger started blogging in 2009, his very first post was titled “What is American goods, anyway ? ” Eight years later, when returning back from a two year hiatus in blogging,  the same theme resurfaces as the second innings of blogging is started.

The trigger for this post is of course Trump’s executive order titled the same as this post, which he signed with much fanfare three days ago.  The order , of course, is pure bombast and is only meant to show that the President is doing “something”. It simply orders the Secretary of Commerce to tell the world what the hell this means in 60 days and orders sundry other Ramamrithams to specify how it will be implemented  in 150 days. I was not aware that you need an Executive Order to tell people to do their jobs, but apparently in the world of alternative reality, that is required.

Precious little, other than nuisance value, will come of it. For you see, in today’s globalised world of supply chains it is almost impossible to determine what is “American” as my first ever post argued.  If “value added” is the yardstick for measuring national origin, then your iPhones are as American as mom and apple pie even though they are entirely manufactured outside the US. If the physical act of manufacturing (read final assembly)  is the yardstick, then the iPhone is Chinese while BMW is American.  If the entire supply chain has to be in the US, most products will simply disappear off the shelves as some of the raw materials and components are simply not available in the US and have to be imported.

The Executive Order gives some clues to the warped thinking – apparently they would like  that “for iron and steel products,  all manufacturing processes, from the initial melting stage through the application of coatings, occurred in the United States .”  US iron and steel has been on decline for decades. Only an idiot will set up steel capacity in the US – after all the next President can sign another Executive Order to the opposite. Not a single new job will be created. What will only happen if this pig headed policy is even half tried is that the existing US steel plants will jack up their prices. The American consumer shall pay.

The problem of disappearing jobs is a real and serious one, but there are no easy fixes. It cannot be tackled by trumpeting economic nationalism. It certainly cannot be solved by sitting on the toilet seat and tweeting whatever comes to your mind.

By the way, the GOP was meant to stand for free markets and trade. It would have been appropriate if a President Sanders were to try something like this. But a Republican President ?

PS : Its nice to be back. Sorry for going away for two years – I was dabbling in a social enterprise in the interim, but am now back in retirement, and therefore back to blogging.

The bonanza / disaster of 2014

As the year draws to a close it is customary to review the year gone by. What do you think was the most significant event of 2014 ? Some would say Ukraine. A few might vote for Ebola. Still others might say ISIS. What about the missing Malaysian Airlines plane ? Others might say the Indian elections. Many in my part of the world might even say Lingaa 🙂
In my opinion however, the most significant happening of 2014 was the steep fall in the price of oil. In June 2014, Brent crude stood at $110 a barrel. Today it is at $ 60. This has profound ramifications on both the economics and politics of the world.
Because of the world\’s dependence on oil as the primary source of energy, there has been a massive transfer of wealth over the last decade or two from the poor to the rich. Most of the world\’s nations are oil importers. A few, blessed by sheer geographical luck are oil exporters. Wealth has gushed from the former to the latter for years now.
With the step decline in the price of oil, the tide has turned. The oil exporters are facing economic disaster. The hardest hit is Russia – a kleptocracy that has frittered away the oil boom years, now suffering from the twin effects of falling oil prices and the sanctions over Ukraine.  The rouble has crashed and they have been caught pissing in to the wind  (apologies to this blogger !). Next in line is Venezuela, another country that wasted the good years. Iran is yet another sufferer. Even mighty Saudi Arabia is vulnerable. The following chart shows the lot that is in trouble.
The rest of the world is a winner. Inflation, world over, has come down. Global GDP may raise by 0.5% or so, purely on account of oil price. The US and China are the biggest beneficiaries. In fact the booming shale gas production in the US, coupled with weak economic growth globally has caused the fall in price of oil. As an aside, the tree huggers in the UK and elsewhere in Europe who have been blocking every move to frack in Europe must be forced to pay $110 a barrel for oil and not benefit from the effect of the shale gas revolution in the US.
Poor countries across the world have benefited from lower oil prices and have been able to curb inflation. India is the biggest beneficiary of them all. Inflation in India has steeply fallen solely on account of oil prices. Petroleum subsidy has fallen so much that the government has raised taxes on petroleum products and at the same time decontrolled diesel prices without a squeak from the public. The fiscal situation would have been a far greater disaster but for the unexpected bonanza. 
Oil prices will probably recover, but are unlikely to go back to three figures in the near term. That might have larger consequences. Inflation can be held in check. Funding to the Islamic jihadists, which has largely flown from oil money is likely to be constrained. Russia is unlikely to repeat its misadventures as in Ukraine. The oil producers such as Venezuela and Nigeria, who are most affected will be forced to adopt more sensible economic policies which can only benefit them in the long run. All in all, we can ring in the new year with a feel good factor.


PS : This blogger owes an apology for going AWOL for 2 months and is deeply thankful to his readers who have all been very kind and encouraged him to \”come back\”

    Buy American and Hire American

    When this blogger started blogging in 2009, his very first post was titled \”What is American goods, anyway ? \” Eight years later, when returning back from a two year hiatus in blogging,  the same theme resurfaces as the second innings of blogging is started.

    The trigger for this post is of course Trump\’s executive order titled the same as this post, which he signed with much fanfare three days ago.  The order , of course, is pure bombast and is only meant to show that the President is doing \”something\”. It simply orders the Secretary of Commerce to tell the world what the hell this means in 60 days and orders sundry other Ramamrithams to specify how it will be implemented  in 150 days. I was not aware that you need an Executive Order to tell people to do their jobs, but apparently in the world of alternative reality, that is required.

    Precious little, other than nuisance value, will come of it. For you see, in today\’s globalised world of supply chains it is almost impossible to determine what is \”American\” as my first ever post argued.  If \”value added\” is the yardstick for measuring national origin, then your iPhones are as American as mom and apple pie even though they are entirely manufactured outside the US. If the physical act of manufacturing (read final assembly)  is the yardstick, then the iPhone is Chinese while BMW is American.  If the entire supply chain has to be in the US, most products will simply disappear off the shelves as some of the raw materials and components are simply not available in the US and have to be imported.

    The Executive Order gives some clues to the warped thinking – apparently they would like  that \”for iron and steel products,  all manufacturing processes, from the initial melting stage through the application of coatings, occurred in the United States .\”  US iron and steel has been on decline for decades. Only an idiot will set up steel capacity in the US – after all the next President can sign another Executive Order to the opposite. Not a single new job will be created. What will only happen if this pig headed policy is even half tried is that the existing US steel plants will jack up their prices. The American consumer shall pay.

    The problem of disappearing jobs is a real and serious one, but there are no easy fixes. It cannot be tackled by trumpeting economic nationalism. It certainly cannot be solved by sitting on the toilet seat and tweeting whatever comes to your mind.

    By the way, the GOP was meant to stand for free markets and trade. It would have been appropriate if a President Sanders were to try something like this. But a Republican President ?

    PS : Its nice to be back. Sorry for going away for two years – I was dabbling in a social enterprise in the interim, but am now back in retirement, and therefore back to blogging.