From \’Teacher Condemnation\’ to \’System Condemnation\’?

Years ago, it was felt that the root of all problems in education is the teacher. In fact, the MLLs (Minimum Levels of Learning, which served as the de fact national curriculum framework) in the late 80s and early 90s were designed to ensure \’teacher accountability\’ in terms of the minimum that would be achieved. A popular programme, Rishi Valley\’s multi-grade teaching (adopted/adapted as \’activity based learning\’ in many states) actually originated from the desire to get children to be able to learn without needing the teacher (which is why there is so much of self learning in it).

People still continue to condemn the teacher and hold him responsible for all the ills in education. However, with the proliferation of so many \’reports\’ on education all around, there is now a great sense of intolerance towards the education system itself. The belief seems to be that not only government teachers and schools but the government education system itself is condemnable. Among NGOs, academics, commentators, researchers and intellectuals the general notion seems to be gathering steam that everything and everyone in the government system is the problem!

But what is a system if not the people in it, the way they work and the frame within which they work? From that point of view, I have to say that some of the finest people I\’ve come across are \’system\’ people. Every year I get the chance to work with thousands of teachers who I see putting in 12-14 hour days when others from outside the system (e.g. NGOs) fade away after only 8 hrs of input. This is not to say everything is OK with the system or the policies or the people – it\’s just point out that a black and white view doesn\’t help. And that just as it is not possible to change a teacher while condemning him, it is not likely to be possible to improve a system while

Five Ideas for Teachers\’ Day

Teachers\’ Day is round the corner. Once again, we\’ll have the same old speeches, boring comments and everyone showing so-called \’respect\’ for teachers for one day – then it will all be forgotten till the next year comes around again!

For those of us who feel we need to go beyond the usual platitudes, here are a few straightforward suggestions. As always, your responses and further suggestions would be very welcome indeed!

1. Prepare a \’Teacher Strength Chart\’

On a chart, put a photo of the teacher (could even be children\’s drawing) and write down 5 things that you like about the teacher or 5 good qualities the teacher has. (Every teacher has these, just that some of them may not know they have them.) Who should do this? Students / SMC or parents / CRCC or fellow teachers. Keep the chart up for as long as you want.

2. Invite the teachers\’ families and honour them

Host a function where teachers\’ parents / spouses / children are invited and honour them along with the teacher. Why? Firstly because if a teacher teaches well, gives a lot of time, and lives up to professional standards, the family has to support the teacher and sometimes even make sacrifices. On the other hand if a teacher doesn\’t live up to professional standards, the family will… you get the picture! The SMC or the CRCC would obviously have to take the lead in organizing this, with students\’ help.

3. A special \’sports\’ session for teachers

Teachers have to be so responsible that they sometimes forget what it is to be a teacher. So how about something that helps them recall the time when they themselves were young. So you could organise a kabaddi or cricket match for teachers, or even races. Other possibilities include a Talent Show (whether teachers get to display their skills such as singing or mimicry) or even a picnic. Once again, the SMC with the students\’ help and the CRCC\’s support can easily organize this.

4. Stock the school library with books bought especially for teachers

Ask the teachers what they would like to read – and buy as many of those books for your school library as the budget permits. The CRCC would need to take active lead in this, with guidance from BRC and DIETs/

5. Launch a year-long \’Search for Greatness\’

This is a difficult idea, so read carefully! Every teacher and every school can improve and reach a level far better than what it is today. In honour of teachers on Teachers\’ Day, the SMC and students as well as the CRCC can get together, promise their support and work out how they will improve the school in the year ahead. Together they will discuss what it means for their school to be \’great\’ (and will not focus on infrastructure but learning processes), identify concrete steps to attain this greatness (see suggestions separately in my blog), and work out a phased implementation plan (see ADEPTS). Teachers will naturally be part of this discussion.

You can build on the School Development Plan and dedicate the effort to teachers (of course, they too would take active part in implementing the plan). Inform the teachers that the successes will be because of them, and shortcomings because they would not have got enough support from us (that is our Teachers\’ Day gift to teachers). So this would be a year long effort to show our respect to teachers while also working with them to bring about actual improvement. Neat, no?

The Case for Children\’s News Programmes

Imagine regular news programmes for children
While advertising and entertainment programmes have begun to cater to children\’s needs, for some reason news channels have ignored children altogether! Imagine a regular children\’s news programme, at a fixed time, presented in a lively way, as something for children to look forward to daily. It could be on radio and better still, on TV.

What such programmes could contain
While national and international events would figure in it, children\’s news would focus on the world as seen by children. Background information would make the news more accessible, along with activities that can be done at home or school. There might even be discussions and debates on issues that children have views and opinions on, along with scope to engage with the channel through phone calls / sms / email.

Newspapers too
And perhaps newspapers would follow with some space for children\’s news, based on what came on TV the previous night. This would not only enable greater understanding of the news itself, it would greatly boost higher order literacy (apart from newspaper circulation). This would also provide teachers with more current material for use in different classes across a range of subjects!

Many benefits
The immediate benefits for the channels themselves would be in terms of developing loyal viewers for the future (and perhaps an expanded revenue source through increased advertising range).

However, the longer term implications for children themselves, for society and the country would be enormous.

Children who have had the opportunity to engage with a world beyond their immediate environment would develop cognitively and socially (well exceeding the abysmal levels attained at present!)
Focusing the programming at special groups (e.g. girls, or children with disabilities or the rural poor or those who need help to learn the state language – such as tribal children – or English) would dramatically increase learning opportunities for the marginalized and the disadvantaged.
Wide spread use of such programmes would also help harness the demographic dividend India has at the present.

If handled sensitively, this could help create a nation where plurality is cherished and the narrow confines of identity are not allowed to become a source of conflict.

Who\’s who in Chinese politics

Xi Jinping, the current Chinese leader is easily the most powerful leader that China has had ever since Deng Xiaoping faded away in the early 90s. But in order to understand his power, we have to go back a bit in time in modern Chinese history.

Mao was a tyrant and supremely powerful in China and until his death, he was simply the sole power centre. But that degree of concentration of power resulted in chaos in China – the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution being two big disasters. When he died, the elders decided that no single person should ever be allowed to accumulate such power. Deng Xiaoping became the preeminent leader, but there was a rival power centre in Chen Yun and to a lesser extent in Li Xiannian. Multiple purges later, Jiang Zemin was appointed the Secretary of the Communist Party immediately after the infamous Tiananmen incident in 1989.

Jiang accumulated a fair degree of power, but was never all powerful. He led the party out of the post Tiananmen crisis and then earned his own notoriety by the brutal suppression, and virtual extermination, of Falun Gong – a cult loosely based on mysticism, but which was feared by the Party as a political movement. By the norms set by Deng, which he followed and reinforced, he stepped down after some 12 years as the Secretary of the Party and handed over to Hu Jintao, who was handpicked by Deng himself before his death. However, Jiang continued to remain the Chairman of the Central Military Commission and therefore in his first term Hu really did not have much power and had to constantly \”handle\” Jiang. Jiang continues to remain a power centre and is the leader of the Shanghai faction. However he is getting old (he\’s past 90) and his power is fading, helped along by Xi\’s efforts to undermine this faction.

Hu Jintao is a colourless and plodding leader, who even while he was the Secretary of the Party, was never a charismatic leader. His hold on power was weaker. When he handed over the reins to Xi Jinping, he quit all his formal roles. He leads the Youth League, another faction, but is not a powerful leader.

Xi Jinping comes from a group called the \”princelings\” – their fathers were revolutionary leaders in the Mao era and their positions, at least to some measure, is owed to their parentage. When Xi took over, he swiftly started to consolidate his power with a massive anti corruption drive, the likes of which China has never seen.

Ostensibly Xi was tackling one of the greatest scourges of China – corruption. The scale of corruption in China is simply unbelievable. Nowhere has mankind seen anything like this. It is all pervasive . I won\’t say anything more – I still wish to travel to China !! Let me just say that whatever you think is the level of corruption in China, the reality is probably tenfold worse. It is an existential threat to the Party. Therefore tackling corruption was a popular thing to do.

But the anti corruption drive was also a big consolidation of power by Xi. It was positioned as catching \”tigers and flies\” – both the small fry as well as the really powerful. Unsurprisingly, the people targeted the most were political opponents. More than 100,000 flies have been indicted, but more importantly so have nearly 200 tigers. This includes some 100 senior people in the military including two former Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission (the equivalent would be Defence Secretary and the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the US military being purged). The biggest tiger of all who was jailed is clearly Zhou Yongkang, a past member of the Standing Committee. Such a thing is simply not done in Chinese politics – the upper echelon of the Communist Party was thought untouchable.

Xi\’s main ally who has carried out the anti corruption drive is Wang Qishan, a current member of the Standing Committee and 6th in the formal order of seniority. But clearly the real no 2 in China is Wang Qishan. He is a star economic leader in China – having held a number of economic portfolios in the past. But for the last 5 years he has been Xi\’s enforcer in the anti corruption drive. Crucially he is 69 and by the tenets of the unofficial retirement policy, he should retire in October. All the rumours swirling around China are that Xi will keep him.

The formal No 2 is the Premier Li Keqiang. His job is to run the economy and the general consensus is that he has not been successful. His power base is small and he belongs to the Youth League faction of Hu Jintao. In fact at the time of Xi\’s succession it was rumoured that Hu actually wanted Li to succeed him and not Xi. Li is only 62 and can continue as Premier for one more term. This blogger has a view (wild guess) as to what might happen to both Wang Qishan and Li Keqiang and he will boldly articulate a prediction in a subsequent post !

Two other names need mention. When Xi and Li were appointed, there was also speculation as to who would succeed them in 10 years time (the next generation of leaders). Two names were mentioned – Hu Chunhua and Sun Zhengcai. Both were included in the politburo last time around and given important positions. Just two months ago, Sun Zhengcai was summarily replaced and an anti corruption investigation started against him. Clearly he lost out in a power struggle.

How do the Chinese themselves view all this ? You may be surprised ! Watch out for the next post.

PS – Chinese names are not easy to pronounce to Western tongues. Here is an approximation

Mao Zedong – Mao Tze Dhong

Deng Xiaoping – Dhung Hsiao Ping

Jiang Zemin – Jiang Tze Min

Hu Jintao – As written

Xi Jinping – Hsi Jin Ping

Li Keqiang – Li Khe Chiang

Wang Qishan – Waang Chi Shaan

What\’s your favourite advice to facilitators/trainers of teachers?

Over the years, you\’ve taken part in workshops, training programmes, meeting, on-site coaching – either as participant or as facilitator or trainer. Maybe you have even trained trainers or prepared them in different ways. So what\’s your favourite advice to anyone involved with training and facilitation?

We have to leave the teacher in the classroom, isn\’t it?

Parimal Patel, a CRC coordinator from Gujarat, faced the following difficulty. To which there are no easy answers, but here\’s an attempt. Feel free to add your views!

Parimal Patel

Two days ago, I had a discussion in my cluster to make school history and to make school bio-data (which was made by me for my school by spending extra time in the school). Teachers liked my idea but said that that in which time they would make it? They have had a lot of work since June. I\’m asking this question because this is only one example – but there are so many policy-makers and the worker is only one. If we want quality we have to leave teacher in the classroom, isn\’t it? Please think about it – this is a more difficult question in primary education than any other.

Subir\’s response

Parimal (and many other friends struggling with the same problem) – you are right that the worker is one and policy makers are many, and all of them are trying to get the worker to do something or the other! So what can be done? Here are a few points for you all to consider:

The curriculum development process is one very important way to create a framework and common understanding so that the different decision-makers and policy-makers can think in a coordinated way. In the next few months this will be shared across the state and a process to coordinate accordingly will start. In the beginning, though, you can expect a lot of struggle, since everyone will not agree on what the SRG has developed! Be prepared for different ideas all trying to occupy the same place.

When we work in the field, we do have to keep in mind specific actions. At the same time, don\’t worry if the teacher does not do what you are asking for – AS LONG AS HE/SHE IS WORKING TOWARDS THE SAME OBJECTIVE. The problem arises when the objectives themselves are different (as will happen this year in the Gunotsav).

The need to leave the teacher to work in the classroom is really important. We have opposite views about what is happening: some claim the teacher has got too many non-teaching tasks, and some say that the teacher is simply not spending the time in the class. Which view is the correct one? I think both are. People like me will keep on working with policy makers to ensure that non-teaching tasks are reduced, and other colleagues at field level will have to keep on working to ensure that teachers do spend the time available in the classroom.

I like the idea of the school bio-data. Maybe it does not have to be done in one go. How about putting up a chart or board, and letting teachers, children, even community members add things to it when they have the time. Then, perhaps after a month, in the morning assembly this can be shared (it is not necessary to keep doing the same things in morning assembly every day!). Different classes could be given the tasks in different subjects, related to the school bio-data (in language – do the writing work; in maths – make maps, tables with data; in social studies – trace the history; in drawing – make pictures of different aspects of the school, etc.). So making it a project, spreading it over time, and connecting it with ongoing processes might help. This has to do with how we imagine different things being done.

Finally, pl also read the post on \’How Teachers Change\’, and also \’How Teachers Learn\’ in my blog.

\’What We Learn Cannot Be Burnt – \’An Afghan Neo-Literate Woman

As we work in education, it often tends to get too \’sanitized\’ – as if it is not about real people in real situations, where education has a meaning that\’s almost impossible to comprehend. Here\’s a story from Afghanistan, from a programme called Learning for Life that sought to provide initial literacy and health awareness to enable women to become CHWs (community health workers, sorely needed in the country). This story was documented in June 2005, by Judie Schiffbauer, and shared by Katy Anis.

Each morning, six days a week, 40 year old Zeba Gul wraps a light gray shawl around her head and shoulders and leaves her family’s mud-walled compound in the Afghan village of BegToot. She follows a path that winds through dusty alleyways and then along green fields to arrive at a two-story building constructed of unbaked brick made from mud and straw. Inside, a set of narrow stairs leads to the Learning for Life classroom, where other women are already gathered. Removing her shoes at the doorway, she enters and lowers herself to the mat-covered floor, tucking her long legs beneath her.

In December 2004, when the LfL health-based literacy program began in BegToot, wind whipped snow against the classroom windows, but on this fine summer day, the windows are open to admit a pleasant breeze. The room looks out over groves of mulberry trees, for which the village is named. Tall, creviced mountains rise high in the distance, still bearing traces of winter snow.

But the 26 women in the class are not admiring the view. Instead, each attends to Qotsia, their 21-year-old teacher, who stands beside a small blackboard at the front of the room. One of millions of Afghans who fled the war-torn country, Qotsia grew up as a refugee in Iran, where she received 12 years of formal education. Now she has returned to BegToot, and the women are grateful.

Dressed and coifed in black, Qotsia begins to write with a piece of chalk. Carefully demonstrating each stroke, she writes a word in Dari composed of several letters from the alphabet displayed on a poster on the wall. The dark black letters on the poster are easy to see, but six months ago, no woman in the class could have named or written a single one. Today, hands shoot up when Qotsea asks someone to spell out and then read what she has written. One woman rises and comes forward: k a r u m (worm). “Very good, Pashtoon Jan!” says Qotsia. Pashtoon Jan smiles as her fellow learners sound out the word, repeat it in unison, and write it in their notebooks: k a r u m. Worms are the topic of today’s lesson.

To the left of the blackboard, a series of drawings depicts women busy with women’s chores: one is cleaning vegetables; one is boiling water to be stored in an earthenware jar; another is feeding a sick baby; and one is washing a child’s dirty hands. Now the women in this Level One literacy class are going to learn how worms and a child’s dirty hands are related.

As one of six Community Health Workers enrolled in the class, Zeba Gul already knows a lot about worms. Their life cycle and method of transmission were explained to her when BRAC, a REACH NGO-grantee, trained her as a CHW. But until now, Zeba Gul has never known how to spell, read or write the names of the parasites– roundworm, tapeworm, and pinworm—that sicken so many children and adults in the village.

As Qotsia begins the lesson, Zeba Gul leans forward and points to a young woman sitting nearby: “That’s my daughter,” she whispers. “Because of this class, she is learning to read and write before her hair turns gray.”

Later, the class at an end and women lingering to talk, Zeba Gul told her story. She was born in Paghman, but she has not always lived there. When she was sixteen, she married and moved to Kabul with her husband to live with his family. Her daughter and several other children were born in the city.

“It was good,” says Zeba Gul. “My husband had a small shop. He worked hard. In the morning, he opened the shop. In the afternoon, he had a second job in a government building.”

Even during the dark days of war, the family chose not to leave Afghanistan for sanctuary in Pakistan or Iran. “We stayed,” she says, remembering their struggles with a hint of pride in her voice. “We were hard workers, and we stayed.”

For a time after the Russians left, Zeba Gul thought the worst was behind them. But peace did not last long. “After that,” she said, “I wasn’t sure what the fighting was about; I know only that it did not stop. So much fighting.”

When Zeba Gul explains that both the family’s shop and home were near Damazang in Karte Seh, the room grows very quiet. Everyone knows that Karte Seh was virtually destroyed during the civil war. “Ay, Khoda!” the women whisper, as Zeba Gul continues her story:

“One night, our shop was ablaze. How it burned! And our house burned too. Everything we had was swallowed in fire. Oh, God. What could we do? We had nothing left! So we returned to Paghman. It was more than ten years ago. Here, my husband is a farmer. Thanks to Allah, he is alive.”

Many of her listeners have been less fortunate, and the widows nod in agreement as Zeba Gul utters her prayer of gratitude. The women in the room have known great sorrows, but it is resilience that binds them.

“Now,” continues Zeba Gul, “I am a CHW. And I am learning to read and write in this class. See there: my daughter is also here! Faz l’Khoda–Give thanks to God. What we learn cannot be burned.”

Call the SNP\’s bluff

Just in case you were not following the British elections, a small earthquake happened. The Tories won, the Lib Dems were wiped out, Labour performed poorly, and UKIP performed well but got no rewards. The bigger earthquake happened north of the border where the Scottish Nationalist party (SNP) won all seats bar three in a landslide, essentially running on a plank of Scottish independence.

This blog is a politics free zone and this blogger does not comment on political matters although he has (obviously !) strong views on every matter under the sun including Scottish independence 🙂 But he can and will argue a point of view on the economics of the issue of Scotland\’s secession.

Scotland runs a much higher level of expenditure as compared to the income it generates. If it were a separate nation, it will be running a deficit of 8% of GDP, as against the UK\’s 4%. The SNP is even more to the left than Labour and wants to spend more. In the cuckooland of irresponsibility that all opposition parties operate in, this is all very possible.

Scotland\’s economy is tiny and is heavily influenced, even now, by oil. With the current low prices of crude, Scotland\’s already iffy finances would be in dire straits if it was an independent country. But thankfully it is not and is currently being bailed out by the English tax payer.

When the referendum was held last year (and Scotland voted to narrowly stay in the UK), it was promised to the Scots that the powers to tax and spend would be devolved to the Scottish parliament. What the SNP wants is the power to tax and spend, but continue to get the bailout by the English tax payer. For a period of transition this is acceptable, but this is not a sustainable proposition. What the Tory government would probably do is to immediately devolve the powers to tax and spend, but set a graded target of deficit reduction to the UK average over , say a five year period. That is enough to turn the squeeze on any government in Scotland. Independence would start to look an increasingly unattractive proposition.

The issue of independence will never be settled on economic grounds. Everywhere in the world it is settled on emotional and political grounds, even when it is blindingly obvious that it would be a case of economic suicide. It is for the electorate to decide, although every Anglophile, including this blogger, has a view. But one thing is certain. If the UK called the bluff and handed over the management of finances to a Scottish parliament, in an election five years later, whether Scotland is an independent nation by then or not, there is no chance that the SNP will win 56 seats. Its time to make the SNP accountable.

China\’s Issues

Every country faces challenges and China is no exception. But by global yardsticks, China\’s issues are less critical than what most other countries face. It is after all the one country in the world which does not face a serious growth challenge (at least as of now). China is however such a large country that even a seemingly minor issue is of gigantic scale and one that will affect the whole world. This is why everybody in the world ought to take a much greater interest in this country.

This post is a compendium of social, political, economic and moral issues that China faces at this point of time, in no particular order

Maintaining GDP Growth : The \”contract\” between the Communist Party and the people is a simple one – Economic growth for political control. When economic growth falters, this contract will be put under strain. There are a number of challenges to maintaining economic growth and some of them are articulated below. You can\’t grow endlessly at 8%+. The inflexion point has come.

Quantum of Debt : China\’s debt to GDP ratio is galloping and is now above 300%. Much of the growth over the last decade has been debt fuelled. Growth will seriously falter if debt is cut. That\’s why the elusive \”soft landing\” is proving so difficult for China. Just for comparison, India\’s debt to GDP %, which I often cry about is \”only\” 130%. The United States, of course is a leader at 350% !

Income inequality : Every country faces this problem, but China faces it as bad as the US. The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality is 0.42 (higher the number, greater the inequality). The US is 0.46. India is 0.35. China is starting to have first world problems

Ageing population : Because of the one child policy that was rigidly enforced until recently, China is rapidly ageing. It will be the first country in history to have an ageing problem before it got rich (remember, on a per capita basis, China is still middling). With a poor social security network, who is going to pay for the aged and take care of them in a decade or two. China has the peculiar problem of one grandchild for four grandparents.

Corruption : We have spoken of it in previous posts. It is a serious problem.

Environment : China faces an acute environmental problem. The government is actively tackling it, but the problem is a huge one and one that was allowed to build up to crisis levels over decades. China also faces an acute water problem (worse than India\’s). There aren\’t easy solutions. Much of the north is virtually a desert, but with teeming populations.

Restive provinces : The one thing China is absolutely terrible at is integrating people who are culturally different. 93% of China is a homogeneous Han (those who talk about diversity in China have no clue what diversity really means – come to India). The two largest provinces Tibet and Xinjiang are restive and brutally suppressed

Rising nationalism : Very few Chinese would recognise this as an issue, but it really is. Anti foreigner sentiment is high – its easy for a large number of Chinese to be fanatically against a nation if whipped into a frenzy of perceived slights. The Chinese government is increasingly bullying in its approach – Japan (Senkaku), entire East Asia (Nine dash line), India (Doklam and Arunachal). The average citizen who only has access to government propaganda gets whipped into dangerous nationalism. The Chinese would do well to ponder over this – why do they have so few friends ?

A moral vacuum : To an outsider, this might seem to be a strange issue, but many Chinese would immediately relate to it. Firstly during the Cultural Revolution and then in the breakneck speed of economic growth, its ancient culture, beliefs and traditions have gone. Today money is the predominant (only) religion. In other countries, religious and social organisations provide a balance to the materialism. In China they do not exist, or if they rise, are brutally exterminated by the government (see what happened to Falun Gong). So many Chinese wonder – after money what? And they may then turn their attention to demanding a level of freedom not in consonance with what the party is comfortable with.

And so this is the real major issue that China has faced since the mid 1980s and continues to face now. What is the balance between economic freedom and growth and political and other freedoms. The first flare up came when Zhou Enlai died in 1976. The second major flare up came during the Tiananmen incident in 1989. Since then there has been an uneasy truce, but one which has never gone away. Some day it will rear its head again. How China confronts it, and who is in power in China to confront it, will have tremendous consequences for the world.

China\’s new lineup

Anybody who predicts what the next Standing Committee and the Politburo will be is almost certain to be wrong ! This is why most newspaper columnists are content with naming possible candidates and leaving it at that. This blogger does not care if he is proved wrong or even as a fool. There are no consequences to getting it dead wrong. So here\’s my prediction what\’s going to happen !

There are only two near certainties in this political game. One is that Xi Jinping will continue as Secretary of the Communist Party, Chairman of the Central Military Commission and as the President. The second is that Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zengsheng, Liu Yunshan and Zhang Gaoli will retire from the Standing Committee . Everything else is up for grabs.

Two of the key moves that is the subject of much speculation is what will happen to Li Keqiang the current Premier (most views are that he will stay on as Premier) and that of Wang Qishan (Xi\’s ally in the anti corruption drive, but who is crossing the informal retirement age of 68).

My guess is that Li Keqiang will be pushed out and Wang Qishan will replace him as the Premier. This is not considered likely today and if it happens, will be radical and unexpected. If it indeed does happen, it will indicate that Xi has taken total control of the Party. My reasoning is that Li has been a disappointment as Premier with his management of the economy, his key job. He will also carry the can for the stock market troubles of 2015. Li belongs to the Youth League faction which has been systematically defanged. There is precedence in China of the Premier being replaced – Li Peng giving way to Zhu Rongji in 1998. Wang Qishan , as we have seen in earlier posts, is the de facto No 2 in China today. He is an expert on the economy and if he were to be appointed Premier, he will be Xi\’s trusted lieutenant in the soft landing of the economy that is a big imperative for China. This will mean Xi is bending the retirement rule – something I am guessing he will do as a strawman for his own options 5 years from now when he will face this retirement rule himself.

I think Li Zhanshu is a shoo in for the Standing Committee. He is currently the Director of the General Office of the Party and is a right hand man of Xi. Stacking the Standing Committee with his people will be a primary objective of Xi.

There is a good chance that Wang Yang, currently Vice Premier will be elevated to the Standing Committee. He is not a Xi loyalist and was potentially a candidate for the Standing Committee even the last time around. He is however efficient and strong and has quelled his reformer (read political) instincts. He has kept his head low over the last five years and for sheer ability is likely to rise.

Another likely name is Wang Huning. He is currently the head of the central policy research office. A non controversial choice who doesn\’t belong to any faction. A theoretician whom Xi seems to rely on and is often seen on Xi\’s overseas trips as an important adviser.

If Xi is in total control of the Party and has not needed to cut any deals, then this is the likely Standing Committee – cut down to five members . Xi Jinping, Wang Qishan, Li Zhanshu, Wang Yang and Wang Huning.

If Xi however decides to stay with a seven member standing committee, then the two additional names, would be as my guess, Zhao Leji and Han Zheng. Both are \”senior\” but not powerful and therefore likely to simply make up the numbers and duly nod their heads to anything Xi says.

If my prediction is even 75% right, then it is clear that Xi is all powerful. None of these members can be a potential successor to Xi and it will also indicate that Xi is preparing to stay on after 2022 as he hasn\’t groomed a successor unlike what his predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao did.

Just as important as who gets in, is who doesn\’t get in. The disappointed persons would be

– Li Keqiang, the current Premier. He would be the biggest casualty if he were to fall. If he doesn\’t get dropped, Xi is just being cautious not to make too many changes. Li\’s power will continue to wane and he will, at best be a bureaucrat continuing to run the economy. Real decisions will made by Xi.

– Hu Chunhua, the current party chief of Guangdong. He is of the next generation and had been touted as a potential successor to Xi even five years ago. He has recently been making noises pledging loyalty to Xi. His elevation to the Standing Committee will mean he is the clear front runner next time around. His non inclusion will be a strong signal that Xi intends to stay on even after 2022.

– Chen Min\’er, current party chief of Chongqing. He was just brought in there to replace the disgraced Sun Zhengcai, a potential successor to Xi who fell in a power struggle. Chen is a staunch Xi loyalist. Its unlikely that he would be nominated, but if he were, it would be a clear signal that he would take over from Xi at least nominally in 2022, while Xi holds real power from the backroom.

A team like the one I have predicted will mean the following for China

– Xi Jinping is all powerful. He will start to acquire Mao like cult status. It is only hoped that he wouldn\’t unleash horrors on the country as Mao did.

– The Party will become even more ruthless in suppressing dissent. Personal freedoms will be even more curtailed and censorship will worsen.

– The economy will be managed efficiently. Economic troubles will come but they will be managed as best as could be.

– On foreign policy China will become increasingly belligerent and muscular. They will be difficult to deal with diplomatically and might pick up fights with other countries. The current US administration will constantly lose on anything they pick up with China.

– The anti corruption drive and the defanging of political opponents will intensify. Xi might however face a challenge when Jiang Zemin dies. Major political activity tends to happen when somebody important dies. The two major upheavals in China happened in 1976 after Zhou Enlai died and more famously in 1989 when Hu Yaobang died which led to the Tiananmen incidents. Jiang is nowhere near as liked as Zhou or Hu were, but it may be a trigger for old timers and those who had lost out in the Xi era to maybe flex their muscles.

– Xi will stay on post 2022 and will be the main power for at least another decade. He will install one of his men as the General Secretary, but will stay on as the Chairman of the CMC and wield real power. He may even be appointed Chairman of the Party, a post that was abolished after Mao.

How wrong I am would be revealed in the days after October 18th when the line of 5 or 7, which I alluded to in the first sentence of this series of posts will walk in and be introduced. Even if I am 50% right, I will lay claim to being a \”Zhōng guó tōng\” (China expert) !

Enough of politics. This blog will go back to plodding on business and economic matters. It will return briefly to China and politics when the actual line up is announced in end October.

What Do We Actually \’Celebrate\’ In Our Schools?

\’So, you\’re \’celebrating\’ again.\’

\’Yes, it\’s Independence Day tomorrow.\’

\’Oh, so another round of ritualistic speeches?\’

\’What do you mean, ritualistic speeches?\’

\’You know what I mean. The same old \’important\’ people will be called. They will be welcomed, garlanded and they will walk around, feeling even more self-important.\’

\’You\’re being very unkind, you know.\’

\’But close to the truth, isn\’t it?\’

\’I\’m not sure if this is really ritualistic…\’

\’No, it is what follows afterwards…. The same formal atmosphere will be created. Children will sit in neat rows and told not to talk too much. The LIP (or your Local Important Person) will be praised, invited to give us the benefit of his wisdom, children will be asked to shush, and then the LIP will give the same speech as every year – you are the future of the country… freedom is very important.. our great leaders were so very great… you must work hard… you must try to like the great people of the past… And all this while instead of experiencing freedom on Independence Day of India, children will be sitting bored, stiff, not allowed tomove around or talk or express themselves….\’

\’You\’re being really harsh!\’\’

\’OK, tell me, didn\’t you hear the same speeches when you were a child?\’

\’Ye-es.\’

\’Did you really enjoy those celebrations? Were they a celebration for you?\’

\’Actually, to be honest, no, not really.\’

\’Aren\’t you surprised that the same speeches are being made even now?\’

\’Yeah, now that you mention it…\’

\’And shouldn\’t children be more like the leaders of tomorrow rather than the leaders of long past. After all, every kid is not going to experience walking 17 kilometres to school!\’

\’Hmm… something to think about, there. And come to think of it, why was every great man\’s school 17 kilometres away?\’

\’See, it\’s getting you too! And when it comes to – no, no, better not to say that.\’

\’Well you can tell me… I\’m not going to shout at you!\’

\’I know you won\’t. But I don\’t want you to feel depressed either.\’

\’Come on, I can handle it. Tell me what you were going to say.\’

\’Well, if you insist. The thing is, children attend all these functions year after year, experience the same thing over and over again. And what do they learn? They learn that they don\’t matter. Their job is to listen. Their role is to be passive, not think for themselves. And look at you – you were a child who once found these functions boring but you are organizing exactly the same kind of function again! Independence Day isn\’t quite an experience in Independence, isn\’t it? My thesis is that these National Day type of \’celebrations\’ only teach us to be slaves, to accept that we have no freedom to be different or better, to allow ourselves to be defined by the limited vision of those limited adults who were similarly made limited by the experience they went through as children themselves…. Hey, you\’re suddenly very silent now. This is not look good… come on, say something.\’

\’What do I say? I\’m feeling so…\’

\’So… what?\’

\’So depressed!\’

————————————————-

What do you think about the other \’celebrations\’ we have in our schools? Is the birthday of a child celebrated \’more\’ or differently or better than that of other children whose families are considered to be less important or not influential?

What are the festivals celebrated in schools? Whose festivals are left out? Many communities / religious groups never see their festivals even discussed in school? What do they feel about it? And what do they \’learn\’ from this?

On Sports Day, do most children have the scope to participate and gain something? Or is only the \’victory\’ of a few celebrated again and again? And what do the rest learn from this?

And on Results Day, whose achievements stand out? And what does everyone learn from this? (Maybe CCE will make a difference here?)

Perhaps all these celebrations, in the end, make us realise that their isn\’t much about us that is worth celebrating. When I was younger I would have said that this happens even though the intention is quite different. But now, a little more battered and older, I think the intention was always this – to make you realise that only a few can be \’important\’ persons worth celebrating, not you.

————————————————-

So what should we celebrate in our schools?

For starters, children and learning. Simply the presence of every child is worth celebrating (rather than \’Oh God, another one!\’). And how to celebrate? By smiling, by welcoming, by genuinely talking with the child, giving space to her questions, by looking for ways to ensure she is comfortable, involved and engaged in an actual learning.

Children will ask unexpected questions, offer different points of view, find innovative ways of doing things, or help each other… celebrate this. Point out what they have done which is so good, and why it is so.

There will be times when those who usually \’fall behind\’ will make an effort, come up with something of their own (of course, only if you ensure they have the opportunity to do so). Celebrate their efforts, point out their good parts, and indicate what else they can do that will earn them similar \’celebration\’.

If you find a fellow teacher, a staff member, a parent, an SMC member who is doing something successfully and contributing to children and the school, that\’s worth celebrating.

And on Independence Day? Start a few days before. Discuss with children what Independence Day means to us. Ask them how they think it should be celebrated. Come up with ideas that puts the children in the front, not adults or LIPs. Maybe they make drawings and posters related to freedom. Maybe they hold a debate on what freedom means and whether we really are a free people. Maybe they decide not to do a \’function\’ in the school at all and instead spend time with children who are unable to be in school because they are not really free…And maybe they will learn something very different from such \’celebrations\’ than we did.

What does \’taking pride in being an Indian\’ mean?

Anyone working on curriculum or materials or education in general, ends up wanting children to take pride in being an Indian. But what does \’taking pride in being an Indian\’ mean? Though the idea of \’taking pride\’ can be questioned, here are some things a person \’proud of being an Indian\’ would do / not do (not in any particular order):

celebrate the uniqueness and successes of those who are \’different\’ from us – whether belonging to different religion, ethnicity, language, region, profession…
not spit out in the open anywhere (surprised? well, this is a leading cause of diseases like TB still being active and killing people)
stop complaining about what is wrong (hoping someone else will do something about it) and start taking small steps to make things better, and also urging others to do the same (there\’s power in numbers!)
not restrict their sense of identity to a state or a region or a sub-set of India…
taking the responsibility of being at one\’s best (whether in health, or talent or work or socializing) so that one can ADD to what is already good in India
taking responsibility of keeping one\’s immediate surroundings at the best we can (in terms of things being well-organized and clean/hygienic as well as in an \’ecological\’ sense)
not simply keep harping on the \’golden days\’ of India\’s past but be aware of what we are at present… and hence
not be afraid to face what is really wrong, accept it and work to changing it (e.g. recognize the \’ugly Indian\’ who jumps lines, is rude and selfish, flouts rules and grins when he gets away with it. Or, of course, the bigger issues of poverty, security, discrimination…)

Anna\’s is NOT a movement for change

Let\’s imagine for a moment that corruption vanishes – no one takes bribes any more. Which of the following do you think would now happen as a result?

Dalits will not face discrimination anywhere; people will stop believing in caste and elections will be around issues, not social groups. Unborn girls will not be killed, dowry will go, sexual harassment will vanish, the notion of \’minority\’ will not need to be discussed, equality and equity will be established.
People will start working harder, with greater commitment, be much more innovative, and therefore the economy will shoot up. Private enterprise will no more be required to shore up government efforts.
We will stop exploiting environmental resources in a dangerous manner, all power and energy related problems will be solved, petrol will become cheaper, our sources of water will not be polluted any more and global warming will come to a halt (at least in India).
All children will start attending school and learning well; teachers will transform into good teachers, all government schools will become great schools, and India\’s learning standards will be among the highest in the world. In sports too we will emerge as a world power.
Inflation will not affect us any more, the price of food and other essentials will come down, no matter what happens elsewhere in the world.
Health and nutrition levels will go up greatly, diseases of the poor (water-borne ones or those caused by malnutrition, for instance) will be vanquished.
Poor governance will vanish – in the absence of bribes, officials will become competent, start taking good decisions, stop representing power groups, start listening to people and actually working for their betterment.

I hope you were able to tick off quite a few!

Oscar Wild said: \’Stupidity is the only sin.\’ And in that sense, Anna&Co are great sinners. Unfortunately, those who continue to believe they\’re helping destroy the roots of our problems and bringing about real change – are even more so.

Five Ideas for Teachers\’ Day

For those of us who feel we need to go beyond the usual platitudes, here are a few straightforward suggestions. As always, your responses and further suggestions would be very welcome indeed!

1. Prepare a \’Teacher Strength Chart\’

2. Invite the teachers\’ families and honour them

3. A special \’sports\’ session for teachers

4. Stock the school library with books bought especially for teachers

5. Launch a year-long \’Search for Greatness\’

We have to leave the teacher in the classroom, isn\’t it?

Parimal Patel, a CRC coordinator from Gujarat, faced the following difficulty. To which there are no easy answers, but here\’s an attempt. Feel free to add your views!

Parimal Patel

Subir\’s response

The curriculum development process is one very important way to create a framework and common understanding so that the different decision-makers and policy-makers can think in a coordinated way. In the next few months this will be shared across the state and a process to coordinate accordingly will start. In the beginning, though, you can expect a lot of struggle, since everyone will not agree on what the SRG has developed! Be prepared for different ideas all trying to occupy the same place.

When we work in the field, we do have to keep in mind specific actions. At the same time, don\’t worry if the teacher does not do what you are asking for – AS LONG AS HE/SHE IS WORKING TOWARDS THE SAME OBJECTIVE. The problem arises when the objectives themselves are different (as will happen this year in the Gunotsav).

The need to leave the teacher to work in the classroom is really important. We have opposite views about what is happening: some claim the teacher has got too many non-teaching tasks, and some say that the teacher is simply not spending the time in the class. Which view is the correct one? I think both are. People like me will keep on working with policy makers to ensure that non-teaching tasks are reduced, and other colleagues at field level will have to keep on working to ensure that teachers do spend the time available in the classroom.

I like the idea of the school bio-data. Maybe it does not have to be done in one go. How about putting up a chart or board, and letting teachers, children, even community members add things to it when they have the time. Then, perhaps after a month, in the morning assembly this can be shared (it is not necessary to keep doing the same things in morning assembly every day!). Different classes could be given the tasks in different subjects, related to the school bio-data (in language – do the writing work; in maths – make maps, tables with data; in social studies – trace the history; in drawing – make pictures of different aspects of the school, etc.). So making it a project, spreading it over time, and connecting it with ongoing processes might help. This has to do with how we imagine different things being done.

Finally, pl also read the post on \’How Teachers Change\’, and also \’How Teachers Learn\’ in my blog.

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