Indra Nooyi is not an idiot !

No No. PepsiCo is not foolish enough to launch Doritos for women. For Gods sake, PepsiCo is one of the greatest consumer marketing companies on earth. Sure, even the finest companies can lay a goose egg once in a while. But  not such an obvious bloomer like Doritos for women.
The brouhaha started with an interview Indra Nooyi, the Chairperson of Pepsico gave to Freakonomics. As reported in the New York Times –
 Ms. Nooyi told the interviewer that women did not eat Doritos the same way men did.“They don’t like to crunch too loudly in public,” she said. “And they don’t lick their fingers generously, and they don’t like to pour the little broken pieces and the flavor into their mouth.”She was asked whether PepsiCo — which owns Frito-Lay, the manufacturer of Doritos — was planning “a male and female version of chips.”
Ms. Nooyi responded: “It’s not a male and female as much as, ‘Are there snacks for women that can be designed and packaged differently?’ And yes, we are looking at it, and we’re getting ready to launch a bunch of them soon. For women, low-crunch, the full taste profile, not have so much of the flavor stick on the fingers, and how can you put it in a purse? Because women love to carry a snack in their purse.”
The Sun (of the  notorious British tabloid fame) took this and reported that Doritos for women was being launched. Social media picked it up and hyped it with juicy headlines.

Feminists responded by lashing out and saying this simply reinforced gender stereotypes. Men  lashed out saying this was PC going too far. Sending a tweet is easy – you don\’t have to think and you can spew whatever banality you wish to without any consequence;  just ask a certain old man occupying a seat of power. And then before you could say Doritos, a full blown controversy had erupted. The company had to issue a statement that No, they were not launching Doritos for women !
Indra Nooyi must be scratching her head in bewilderment. All she was outlining in her podcast was how Frito Lay really tried to understand consumers, tried to get insights and tailor products accordingly. Very likely they may have launched a variant that was less crunchy, if that\’s what women preferred. But they wouldn\’t do something as dumb as launching a \”Doritos for women\”.
Just goes to show how careful anybody has to be when making a public appearance. It seems altogether appealing not to appear in public at all – after all no human is infallible enough not to utter an inanity. It also shows how lots of people have nothing else to do but to respond to every nonsense and tweet some rubbish. A certain distinguished reader of mine is a prodigious tweeter. He may want to pause 🙂

    Immigration and Agriculture

    There are some basic facts about agriculture. One ; you cannot do away with agriculture; you have to eat after all. Two; However much you mechanise agriculture, there are large portions of it that have to be done by hand and you need manual labour. Three; agricultural labour is hard hard work. You and I cannot do it. Four; everywhere in the world, the natives do not want to do agricultural labour. Five; You therefore have to \”import\” labour – poor people from places other than where the farms are and usually from another country. Six; the natives do not want these \”immigrants\” to come.
    This is a real problem, which as stated, does not have a solution. Witness what\’s happening in the UK.
    The Brits don\’t want to work in the fields. Therefore most of the agricultural labour comes from Eastern Europe (white Christians, mind you; the problem is compounded in the US because the labour is Hispanic). The Brits have voted to leave the EU and don\’t want anybody coming into their country. End result – fruit is rotting in the fields as reported in the article linked. 
    This was not even about illegal immigration – these workers all came perfectly legally from Eastern Europe and since it was seasonal work, actually often went back to their countries after the picking was over. And yet the Brits have spat on their face and told them they are not welcome.
    The same rural folk in the UK are the ones who voted for Brexit. London overwhelmingly voted for staying. And the main reason for voting exit ? Immigration. We don\’t want foreigners; period.
    The UK farming lobby wants to reinstate the seasonal workers scheme. The deal is , please come and do the dirty work we don\’t want to do, stay in some ghetto so that we don\’t see you, give us all the fruit and then bugger off to where you came from. Couching it in polite language does not detract from what it really is meant to be.
    Agricultural labourers should simply organise themselves and show the middle finger to the UK. If you want us to work, treat us as decent human beings and give us the respect we deserve. Or else, you can do your own dirty work.
    To paraphrase the Duke of Norfolk – you cannot have your fruit and eat it too !

    Thus spake Gates

    Regular leaders of the blog know that this blogger is an unabashed admirer of Bill & Melinda Gates. He is of the opinion that they must be sainted – for they have have done more good in the world than many, if not most, religious leaders.
    They publish an annual letter which is like a \”State of the Union address\” in their field. This time they have answered in their letter, the ten toughest questions they get. And yes, Donald Trump is one of them, but if you expect an incendiary answer, well, you don\’t know the Gates.
    I consider their Annual Letter as required reading for any human being with a heart. Here is this year\’s letter.
    Its a bit different as it addresses questions, some of which are not developmental in nature – like Trump, or what do they do when they disagree. But it is , as always, an interesting and often motivating read.
    May I exhort you to read this one, and then every one of their previous 10 letters. It is a far more productive use of your time, than reading you know what !

    Sack all Fund Managers !

    Here is uncontestable proof that all Fund Managers are a waste of time. They are (mostly) lavishly paid for nothing. If that sounds a radical statement, read on.
    Its a well known saying in financial circles that you cannot beat the market in the long run. The sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett has been saying this for a long time. In 2007, he publicly laid a bet that the S&P 500 index would outperform hedge funds over a 10 year period. He wagered $500,000 on it to anybody who would take up the challenge, observing cheekily , \” \”After all, these managers urged others to bet billions on their abilities. Why should they fear putting a little of their own money on the line?\”
    Surprisingly only one person took up the bet (shame on you hedge fund industry). Protege Partners handpicked a  portfolio of hedge funds. And the wager was on – the S&P 500 against this handpicked pool of hedge funds.
    Ten years ended on 31 Dec 2017. And guess who won ? The hedge fund pool gained 22% over 10 years. The S&P 500 rose 85%. No contest ! Buffet won a handsome amount and promptly donated it to the charity,  Girls Inc of Omaha.
    There\’s a big lesson to everybody who is saving and investing. In the long run you cannot beat the market index. Repeat after me, In the long run you cannot beat the index. Repeat again, In the long run you cannot beat the index. Write it out 1000 times.
    And yet, we listen to advice from friends. To tips. We hire investment managers. Fund Managers design all sort of esoteric funds and write research reports on how their funds are outperforming the market. A million online portals exist that cater to advice on investment. All of them charge a fee. All of them get handsomely paid.  
    Instead follow the advice of Warren Buffet (for free; no fees charged). Simply invest in an index fund – the S&P 500 if you are in the US, the Footsie if you are in the UK, the Nifty if you are in India. A fund that will charge minimum fees to simply hold the basket of securities exactly mimicking the index. And then forget about it. Come back after 10 or 20 or 30 years. You would have made more money than anybody else. It\’s as simple as that.
    There\’s only one slight problem. Warren Buffet has beaten the S&P Index handsomely in the 50 odd years he has been at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway !

    The poor state of business journalism

    If you clicked on Business News from the US on Google, here\’s a sample of the news items that are featured
    Business news has become a reality show. Where are the many important economic issues facing the world ? Where is the reasoned debate ? I had hoped that the dry area of economics and business would be the last to succumb to trivialisation and  sensationalisation. Alas, it has already fallen.
    Take the case of the Nirav Modi – Punjab National Bank fraud that has hit the headlines in India. It is a massive fraud and yet try as I might,  and despite the millions of words written and aired on this (the favourite word is scam – in India everything is a scam), I am not able to make out what exactly happened. There isn\’t one journalistic piece on what exactly happened in detail, why it happened and how can it be prevented. Instead the predominant coverage is that because of the same surname as the Indian Prime Minister, the opposition Congress Party has been going around calling Nirav Modi as \”Chhota Modi\” (Smaller Modi) although there is absolutely no evidence of any relationship.  Both the parties are blaming each other loudly (from what news has come out, this appears to be a plain banking fraud with no link to politics).
    The two finest business newspapers in the world – Financial Times of the UK and the Wall Street Journal have become obsessed with Trump. No, I don\’t want to read anything about him, thank you.
    The Economist remains the only \”good\” read. Alas, this blogger\’s subscription is having some niggles and there has been no issue to read for a month.
    Can we examine America pumping itself with steroids? They are reducing taxes, increasing military spending, increasing social spending and presuming to invest in infrastructure at the same time, and that too when the country is near full employment. This is deficit financing on a staggering scale , being done by the party that ostensibly hates deficits. 
    Can we examine the Brexit issue in terms of what exactly the trade deal issues are ? Can we examine China\’s pile of debt ? Can we marvel at Europe overtaking the US in economic growth – yes that happened last quarter. Can we think about the boom in India\’s indirect tax revenues ?
    Instead I am being told that a Transavia flight made an emergency landing because a passenger refused to stop farting.

    Relationship between Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI), Domestic Institutional Investors, and Stock Market Returns in India

    The present article attempts to understand the relationship between foreign portfolio investment (FPI), domestic institutional investors (DIIs), and stock market returns in India using high frequency data. The study analyses the trading strategies of FPIs, DIIs and its impact on the stock market return. We found that the trading strategies of FIIs and DIIs differ in Indian stock market. While FIIs follow positive feedback trading strategy, DIIs pursue the strategy of negative feedback trading which was more pronounced during the crisis. Further, there is negative relationship between FPI flows and DII flows. The results indicate the importance of developing strong domestic institutional investors to counteract the destabilising nature FIIs, particularly during turbulent times.

    Integration of Stock Market – Evidence from India and Major Global Indices

    In designing portfolio diversification plays an important role and diversifying into international market is one of important ingredient in it. High integration among the markets across the globe however also have its own risk of spillover effect of one country into another geography which will have cascading effect across entire globe. For this study has been done to identify interdependency among ten indices of market spread across Asia, Europe and America. The study has been done by measuring co-integration among various indices and also determining causality among the indices by Granger Causality. The study reveals to large extent presence of strong dependency across various markets. Among the indices studies SHANGAI from China showed low dependency across various geographies.

    A Comparative Study on Financial Performance of Shariah Compliant Stocks and Conventional Stocks in India

    Islamic Equity Market consist the companies which follow the Shariah norms in their business activities to be Shariah compliant. The objectives of this study are to examine the performance of select Shariah-compliant shares listed in BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange), India and to compare the performance of Shariah-compliant stocks with select conventional stocks. The study reveals that the performance of Shariah-compliant stocks is better than conventional stocks during the select period of study and the return of Shariah-compliant securities is less volatile than the conventional securities.

    Determinants of Trading Decision: An Experiential Examination

    In the midst of increasing globalization, the past two decades have observed huge inflow of outside capital in the shape of direct and portfolio investment. The increase in capital mobility is due to contact between the different economies across the globe. The growing liberalization in the capital market leads to the growth of various financial products and services. Over the past decade, the Indian capital market has witnessed numerous changes in the direction of developing the capital markets more robust. With the growing Indian economy, the larger inflow of funds has been fetched into the capital markets. The government is continuously working on investor’s education in order to increase retail participation in the Indian stock market. The habits of the risk-averse middle class have been changing where these investors started participating in the Indian stock market. It is an explored fact that human beings are irrational and considering this fact becomes imperative to investigate factors that influence the trading decisions. In this research, ‘an attempt has been made to investigate various factors that affect the individual trading decision’. The data has been collected from various stockbroking firms and from clients of those stockbroking firms their opinions were recorded by means of a questionnaire. Data collected through the structured questionnaire, 33 questions were prepared which was given to the 330 respondents on the basis of convenience sampling out of which 220 individuals filled questionnaire, the total of 200 questionnaires was included in the study after eliminating the incomplete questionnaire. Various factors are being explored from the literature and then with the help of factor analysis some of the most influential factors have been explored. Factors like overconfidence, optimism, cognitive bias, herd behavior, advisory effect, and idealism are the factors which influenced the trading decision of the investors the most. Such kind of a study is contributing in the area of behavioral finance as a trading decision is an important aspect while investing in the stock market. And this kind of study would be helping and assisting financial advisors to strategies for their clients in making the right allocation and also the policy maker and market regulators to come up with better reforms for the Indian stock markets.

    Effect of Enterprise Risk Management on Firm Value: Empirical Evidence from Non-Financial Firms in Pakistan

     This research examines the effect of enterprise risk management on firm value in Pakistan. Further, this study empirically examines company characteristics that establish the execution of an enterprise risk management system. Using a sample of final dataset of 83 non-financial firms located in Pakistan. The sample included non-financial firms from the year 1999 to 2015 and so up to seventeen observation years per company. As in context of Pakistan, most of the organizations are already implement an ERM programs and establish specialized ERM departments because the ERM is now a global term and has become increasingly relevant because of the growing difficulty of risk and an additional development of regulatory frame works. For the empirical evidences, data collected from non-financial firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Results of logistic regression shows that Capital Opacity, Profitability, Financial Leverage, Firm Size and Slack have positive impact on the implementation of an ERM system but Industrial diversification, Industry and Return on Equity are negatively related to an ERM engagement. The results of ordinary least square regression finds positive relationship between use of an ERM and firm value.

    A Study on Unfolding Volatility and Leverage Effect in Indian Stock Market

    Return is the major attribute of an investment asset that can be considered as a random variable. The variability in return can be expressed as volatility. Forecasting volatility and modelling are the most prolific areas for the research. Volatility and Leverage effect are the two crucial stipulations to study market contradictions and trends that prevail for a drawn-out period. It is observed that when volatility beams the markets soar and when markets roar the volatility fades away. Leverage has a larger scope in managing volatility when investors tend to shuffle their positions. This literature aims to identify the volatility clustering and leverage effect caused to NSE NIFTY 50 index. The study contrasts volatility clustering using symmetric model of i.e., GARCH (1,1). Leverage effects is studied and compared using TGARCH and EGARCH models.

    Stock Market Modeling in the Langevin Formalism

    A Langevin formalism is proposed for stock market dynamics with modeling of various economic market features from first principles. Various processes and effects that occur in the stock market are mathematically incorporated in the said formulation. The Fokker Planck equation corresponding to the Langevin equation so obtained is solved and shows deviation from Gaussian behavior of the rate of change of stock price PDF. The deviation relates to factors such as market efficiency, market depth, liquidity of the relevant stock and informational asymmetries.

    A Precisely Practical Measure of the Total Cost of Debt for Determining the Optimal Capital Structure and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital

    This paper develops a precise method of estimating the cost of debt to a firm that is based on standard financial theories and empirical evidence on default risk and financial distress costs. An analysis with current data on the S&P 500 demonstrates that the capital structures of large firms are consistent with the model’s simple implications.

    Testing the Relationship between Liquidity and Stock Returns in the Palestinian Banks Listed in the Palestine Exchange

    This study examines the relationship between liquidity and stock returns in the Palestinian banks listed in the Palestine Exchange over the period July 2009–July 2018. The study uses three liquidity measures: trading probability (TP), turnover rate (TR), and the measure of Amihud (2002), ILLIQ. The results of Pearson’s correlation test showed a positive correlation between tow liquidity measures (TP and ILLIQ) and stock returns, and the results of fixed-effect model showed a significant effect for the same tow liquidity measures (TP and ILLIQ) on stock returns. So, in the context of Palestine, TP and ILLIQ seem to appear better measures for liquidity; thus, the investors can use these two measures of liquidity to predict the stock returns of the Palestinian banks.

    Using VIX to Dynamically Hedge Portfolio Risk

    Many investors accept buy and hold as their long-term investment strategy. However, during periods of heightened risk, staying disciplined can be problematic. Alternatively, market timing appeals to our emotions but is very difficult to employ successfully. Between these two extremes lies tactical asset allocation, where limited variances are allowed to take advantage of market conditions. Dynamic hedging is a form of tactical asset allocation. Instead of relying on future predictions of asset class returns, dynamic hedging strives to reduce portfolio risk when market risk is elevated. This paper presents a dynamic hedging strategy developed to accomplish this goal. It uses VIXs normal trading range to assess market risk. When VIX trades above its normal trading range and the upper Bollinger band, the dynamic hedging strategy is applied. The result is that portfolio risk is lowered when market risk is extreme. The application of this strategy provides better returns, lower volatility, and better downside protection than a strategic buy and hold allocation. It also avoids the deployment problems associated with market timing strategies.