There is a large body of finance literature that has tested and validated dividend policy decisions mainly focused on the effect of the dividend announcement and the impact it has on the post announcement drift. But very few studies have tested the determinants of the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) surrounding the dividend announcement and to find the role of economic adversity in explaining the change in CAR. The present study investigates the role of change in dividend under both adverse and favorable market conditions. Using the data of S&P CNX 500 companies the study examines the role of dividend yield and EPS in explaining cumulative abnormal return over a period of seven years. Using VAR methodology the study examined the determinants of CAR surrounding the dividend announcement and the dynamic relationship between the variables. The results of the study showed that during adversity, dividend yield is the major factor explaining CAR. Variables like EPS, volume and price explain the CAR when there is no economic adversity. The study found that there is a significant relationship between abnormal return and its determinants.
Month: June 2019
Mobile Money Landscape in the 12 SADC Countries using FinScope Survey Data
There is no doubt that mobile money is bringing the under-served and the excluded population into the main stream financial services corridors. Based on the FinScope surveys, mobile money is becoming one of the enablers of financial inclusion. In an increasing number of developing countries, a number of poor people are using basic mobile phones to transfer money, paying for goods and accessing some basic financial services. According to the World Bank, mobile financial services are amongst the most promising mobile applications in the developing world. Although FinScope results show that mobile money usage is relatively low (23%) in the SADC region, the trend of usage is coming up fast. FinScope results show that close to 7 in 10 mobile money users are using it as a remittances/money transfer vehicle while 54% for buying airtime. It is encouraging that about 7 million adults (24% of mobile money) store value or save money in their mobile money accounts. Some barriers to mobile money relate to: affordability, perceived cost of mobile money, lack of understanding of mobile money/lack of awareness and no access to cell phones. Besides these barriers, mobile money is becoming a game changer for the landscape of financial inclusion in the SADC region.
Monthly Patterns in Egyptian Stock Market
In this paper, monthly effect in Egyptian stock market is investigated for the period January 2007 to July 2015. After examining the random walk hypothesis of the return series, a Seasonal Auto regressive Moving Average (SARMA) model is specified to test the monthly effect in Egyptian Stock market. The results of the study imply that the banking sector of stock market is information ally efficient and does not confirm to the existence of seasonality in stock returns.
Study and Analysis of Dividend Policies, Practice and Its Application in Mumbai based Corporate Houses
In the present paper an attempt has been made to study dividend policy of Mumbai based companies of India. The study tries to assess the level of perceived awareness about models and use of dividends policies, analyses the factors affecting dividend distribution decisions and evaluates the impact of the same on the financial decision-making of companies. In addition the paper tries to understand the correlation between size of companies and distribution of dividend policies. The results of the research paper show that a majority of the fifty respondent Companies follow a policy of consistent dividend rate which is influenced by profit after tax, and finally the legal requirements. It is further observed that generous dividend or erratic divided policies are not popular choice among fifty respondent companies. The use of traditional method of dividend policies which suggests that market price increases with declaration of dividend is strong and dominant. Followed by the Modiglani Miller Method which indicates that dividend distribution has no impact on valuation. On the contrary it is found that Investment decisions influence share valuation. This is further followed by Walter Model where impact of dividend on share price depends on the IRR visa-a-vis cost of capital) and Gordon Method in which dividend policy has an impact on share valuation. Statistical tests such as Friedmans ANOVA test, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, and, Karl Pearsons Coefficient of Correlation analysis are used for analysis and the validity of the collected data is checked by using Cronbachs alpha.
Impact of Corporate Governance on the Cash Holding of the Firms: An Empirical Study of Indian Manufacturing Sector
The paper empirically examines the impact of corporate governance on the cash holding of the firms. The components of corporate governance are measured by board size, board meeting, audit committee members, directors remuneration and non executive directors and the cash holding is measured with the log of average cash and size is taken as control variable for the control effect on the dependent variables. Moreover, correlation and panel regression model were employed to examine the relationship between the corporate governance and cash holding. Empirical data was collected from 96 firms over the period of 2004-05 to 2013-14. The results show that directors remuneration and the number of audit committee members positively influence the cash holding and the board size also positively influences the cash holding whereas, the non executive directors and the board meetings do not play any role in enhancing the cash holding.
An Analytical Approximation for Option Price under the Affine GARCH Model – A Comparison with the Closed-Form Solution of Heston-Nandi
In the option pricing theory, two important approaches have been developed to evaluate the prices of a European option. The first approach develops an almost closed-form option pricing formula under a specific GARCH process (Heston & Nandi, 2000). The second approach develops an analytical approximation for computing European option prices with more widespread NGARCH models (Duan, Gauthier & Simonato, 1999). The analytical approximation was also developed under GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models by Duan, Gauthier, Sasseville & Simonato (2006). However, no empirical work was performed to study the comparative performance of these two formulas (closed-form solution and analytical approximation). Also, it is possible to develop an analytical approximation under the specific GARCH model of Heston & Nandi (2000). In this paper, we have filled up those gaps. We started with the development of an analytical approximation, for computing European option prices, under Heston-Nandis GARCH model. In the second step, we carried out a comparative analysis of the three formulas using CAC 40 index returns from 31 December 1987 to 31 December 2013.
On Volatility Trading & Option Greeks
Commensurate with this exponential growth in the depth and breadth of derivative markets and the range of financial products traded therein, there needs to be developed a comprehensive mathematical framework to support the, hitherto, empirically established features of trading strategies involving these instruments. It is the objective of this article, to provide a mathematical backup for the various properties of volatility trading strategy using call options. Additionally, an attempt is made to elucidate the implications of behavior of various option Greeks on volatility trading.
Evaluation of Value at Risk in Emerging Markets
Financial institutions have witnessed numerous episodes of financial crises all over the world during the last four decades. The researchers, academicians and policy makers in the field of finance studied these episodes extensively and to mitigate the risk involved in these crises have proposed several measures in the financial literature, but Value at Risk (VaR) has emerged as a more popular risk measurement technique. Although a number of studies have been undertaken in this area of research for developed markets but very few studies have been conducted in developing and emerging market economies. This study makes an attempt to evaluate the performance of VaR in emerging markets namely Brazil, Russia, India and China by considering Historical, Monte Carlo and GARCH Simulations to calculate VaR for the period 1998 to 2015. The study found that GJRGARCH Simulation is more suitable for Brazil and China while Historical Simulation for Russian and Indian Stock Markets based on the back-testing experiment.
Relationship between Code of Corporate Governance and Corporate Financial Performance (An Empirical Study of Food Companies Listed on KSE)
The crucial role that implementation of Code of Corporate Governance plays on protecting the rights of minorities, shareholders, local as well as foreign investors cannot be denied. Companies all over the world are required to implement their respective Code of Corporate Governance for avoiding agency conflicts between companies management and stakeholders and for assuring transparency in accountability. This paper aims at exploring the impact of implementation of corporate governance practices (designed by Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan) have on the financial position of companies. For explanatory variables of the study, composition of the board as per the Code of Corporate Governance that comprises of presence of independent, executive and non-executive directors has been taken into consideration. Return on equity has been taken as an indicator of firms profitability i.e. the dependent variable. For this study, companies listed on food producing sector of Karachi Stock Exchange have been screened for excogitation of the relationship. It is an empirical research based on nine years data from 2007–2015. Using Hausman Test for selecting the data analysis technique between Fixed or Random, Fixed Cross Sectional Panel Analysis has been used for analysis of the data collected. Findings indicate that presence of independent, executive and non-executive directors as per the code requirements levies a significant impact on the profitability of companies indicated by return on equity. It is, thus concluded that companies should ensure compliance with code of governance practices to reduce not only the agency issues but also to increase their profitability.
Static Systematic Risk Profile of Nifty 100 Stocks: A Year on Year Analysis of Beta
Beta Coefficient, as a measurement statistic of systematic risk of securities, was initially explained by Sharpe as a slope of simple linear regression function using rate of return on a market index as independent variable and a securitys rate of return as dependent variable. National Stock Exchange (NSE), the leading stock exchange of India, practice this ordinary least square (OLS) regression based single index market model for disseminating beta coefficients of prominent NIFTY 100 stocks. OLS regression based index model presumes that beta coefficients of securities should remain stable for accuracy of predicted returns. Brenner and Smidt (1977) emphasized the importance of having accurate beta forecast mainly because of (i) understanding risk-return relationships in capital market theory and (ii) extensive usage of beta in making investment decisions. The objective of this paper is to examine year on year stability of beta coefficients of NIFTY 100 index stocks.
Exploratory Factor Analysis for the Identification of Dimensions Which Cause Non-Performing Assets in Non-Banking Financial Institutions
According to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor, public sector banks are having stressed accounts equivalent to over Rs.7 lakh Crores including non-performing assets (NPA) and restructured loans (News Asia, 2016). RBI has also pointed out that gross NPA of public sector banks has risen to 6.03% during June 2015 from 5.20% during March 2015. As banks have growing huge bad debts, steps are being laid down by the RBI and the government to help lending banks clean up their balance sheet by 2017. NPAs impact bank growth or stability and deteriorate profits, increase provisions, reduce reserves, affect capital adequacy, increase market borrowings, drop share values, build negative image about the economy and high interest rates. In order to compensate for the money lost in the form of interest in NPAs, banks have to charge high interest rate from other borrowers. This will have indirect impact on inflation and results in negative impact on development. Overall development of the country will also get affected due to NPA by way of unemployment, business exit due to inability to meet its loan repayment obligations, instability of the banking system, and liquidity crisis. A detailed analysis on the factors which cause NPA has become a high priority research agenda in the present day context. A questionnaire is developed for the purpose to acquire and analyse data to identify factors which cause NPA. Also, an exploratory factor analysis has been carried out to identify factors which contribute to growing NPA in financial institutions. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify factors which cause non-performing assets in non-banking financial institutions. Design or methodology or approach: A questionnaire has been developed to gather data from 120 professionals who are involved in the process of granting or recovering loans in non-banking financial institutions in India and appropriate statistical techniques have been used to test for statistical significance. Findings: As a result of exploratory factor analysis, three components with corresponding factors are identified for the cause of non-performing assets in non-banking financial institutions. These are component 1 which is professional incapability of the borrower in running the firm leading to NPA, component 2 related to borrower nature in wilful default and his or her influential nature on financial institution and government resulting in NPA and, component 3 due to weak internal policy of the firm or external environment which aid non-repayment of loan. Component 1, component 2, and component 3 have nine factors, seven factors, and six factors associated with them, respectively, as explained in the paper. Research limitations or implications: The study identified the factors which are to be critically analysed prior to granting loan so that chance of the loan becoming NPA can be minimised. The success of this finding depends on suitably designed electronic credit worthiness evaluation system that evaluate the borrower. Originality or value: The identification of various factors which contribute to non-performing assets and to take suitable measures to control them is a high priority agenda for any financial institution and this research is directly oriented towards that direction.
Assessing the Inter Bank Disparity in Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) Management in Indian Public Sector Banks
In a bank-dominated financial system like India, the strength of the overall financial system or financial stability highly depends on the soundness of banks. Indian Banking system proved to be strong and resilient during the global financial crisis of 2008. But of late, there has been increased concerns about the continued deterioration in the stability of the banking sector. Financial stability report of RBI confesses to the fact that the risks to Indian banking sector have been increasing in the post-recession period particularly the risk of accumulating NPAs. This study attempts to analyse the trend in profitability, NPAs, and the effectiveness of recovery mechanisms and interbank disparity in NPA management with respect to public sector banks. We found that the profitability of public sector banks is declining in the post-crisis period and the amount of NPA has been on the rise. Further, the recovery mechanisms have proved to be ineffective in containing the problem of bad debts.
Lead Lag Relationship between Futures and Spot Prices in Select Nifty Companies
The equity derivatives market in India has undergone remarkable changes in terms of instruments introduced. Introduction of single stock futures, amidst great misgivings, was solely responsible for placing Indian exchanges in the topmost position in the global scenario. Till 2006-07, single stock futures were the most traded instruments in the Indian equity derivative segment. But, post-Global Financial Crisis, there has been a continuous drift in favour of index options from single stock futures. There has been a continuous decline in the share of single stock futures, the gain being that of index options. This is considered as a clear indication towards mature stock market. Even though the inception of derivative trading has significantly influenced the trading volatility in the capital market segment, it is yet to be seen whether the introduction of derivatives has achieved its purpose or not. The present study is an attempt to study the impact of volatility on the stock market after the introduction of derivatives in Indian segment. The study takes into account a period of thirteen years, from 9th November 2001 to 31st March 2014. A bunch of Nifty companies which satisfy the set criteria are selected for the study. The study reveals that there exists causality between the futures and spot prices of these companies. These companies are found to be co-integrated in the long run as well as in the short run.
Examining the Fisher Effect in Short and Long Run: A Study of NSE Sectoral Indices
The belief that stock market provides hedge against inflation has been put to test by many researchers over the past few decades. The present study aims at testing the Fisher effect in the Indian context. We have used monthly data, from July 2006 to June 2016, of the National Stock Exchange sectoral indices and consumer price index. The ordinary least square regression and Johansen cointegration approach have been used to test whether or not Indian sectoral indices provide hedge against inflation in short and long run respectively. The weak exogenity test under VECM has been used to establish the hedge hypothesis in the Indian stock market. The present study has established results in support to the hedge hypothesis that stock market provides hedge against inflation.
Do IPOs in Cold Markets Provide Better Returns
Significant listing day returns for IPOs is a phenomenon that is observed when companies go public. Using a larger timeframe (1999-2014), we attempt to determine the long-run performance of underpriced IPOs issued in an emerging economy such as India during the hot and cold IPO markets for 36-months. The results indicate that IPOs perform significantly better when issued during cold markets. We find that the distribution of returns is the same across cold and hot markets at specific periods during the 36-month period of study.
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