When the caged birds sing.

How important is it to have a voice ? And how important is it for that voice to be heard ?

A few months back ,Loujain al-Hathloul, one of the most prominent women’s rights activists from Saudi Arabia was released after spending more than 1000 days in prison. Her release came about a week after the US called on Saudi Arabia to improve its human rights record, including releasing all political prisoners and women’s rights activists.In December 2020, she was sentenced to five years and eight months in prison by a Saudi Specialised Criminal Court. The Saudi Arabian authorities charged her under the state’s broad counter-terrorism laws for undermining national security and trying to change the political system of the country.

The Saudi women's rights activists who remain behind bars | Human Rights News | Al Jazeera

Being branded as a terrorist, she must have done something which could have endangered her country and the people. So what exactly did she do?

She had played a fundamental role in the movement to lift the driving ban on women and the “Wilayah” male guardianship system. It was only last year in August that Saudi Arabian women were allowed to travel abroad without obtaining permission from a male guardian, apply for passports and register their marriages and divorces. So trying to abolish ages old patriarchal dictum which had chained women for years, yes you can say that’s somewhat fulfills the definition of terrorism.

In 2014, al-Hathloul, who had a driving license issued in the UAE, was detained for 73 days for attempting to drive into Saudi Arabia from the UAE. Following this, weeks before the Saudi Arabian authorities lifted the ban on women drivers in 2018 (the last such ban in the world) she was arrested along with several other women’s rights activists. Before the ban was lifted, any women caught driving, could be sentenced to flogging (a beating administered with a whip or rod)

In 2015, she made an unprecedented move ,when she stood for elections , which was also the first time women were allowed to vote and stand for elections. But according to Amnesty International , her name was not even added to the ballots.

She was detained in 2018 on grounds of national security.For over 10 months after she was detained, she was not charged and there was no trial. According to Amnesty International, she was waterboarded, given electric shocks, was sexually harassed and was threatened with rape and murder during this time. Finally she was able to see the light of the day , after spending days locked up, for having a voice.

Princess Latifa is the daughter of Dubai’s billionaire ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum and his second ” official” wife Her Royal Highness Princess Haya bint Al Hussein. A video of her had surfaced a couple of months back in which she claimed she was being kept hostage by her father in a villa converted into a jail in Dubai. Talk about actually being caged, that to in your own house, that to for years, by your own father.

Amnesty accuses India of violating rights, capturing runaway Dubai princess - India News

As per the ‘Free Latifa’ campaign, the princess tried to escape from the family residence in Dubai in 2002. She was 16 at the time. She was, however, easily tracked and brought back to the palace where she was allegedly detained by her father for over three years, the campaign says.

Latifa made a second attempt to escape in February 2018, when she met up with her friend at a coffee shop in Dubai. After which they drove out of town and managed to cross the border into Oman. From there, she got on a boat and sailed into international waters. However, she was held just off the coast of Goa in India by a “significant Indian and UAE military force”, and taken back to Dubai again.

Since they were published, the videos have led to a call for an investigation into the matter by the United Nations (UN), which has responded to these demands affirmatively saying it will raise the matter with the UAE.

As per recent pictures uploaded on social media, she was seen at various places with her friends . And the update regarding her actual whereabouts is under process.

Let’s get back to the where we began, How important is it to have a voice ? and how important is to be heard ?

Will Oil Price go down???

America does rely on oil in many ways. It’s about 90 percent of the energy that we use in transportation. And it’s more than a third of the overall energy that we use. In fact, it’s probably going to stay that way for a lot, a lot longer. The Energy Information Agency administration predicts that going out to 2050 is still going to over a third of the energy that we’re going to use. So how was it possible for oil to reach a negative value and what does it mean for the American economy? To understand what happened, it’s important to know how a futures contract functions. So the futures market is a way to bet on the future price of a certain commodity.

Different types of oil from all across the world are traded by barrels in their individual market places. But two futures contracts serve as the major benchmark for oil price. Brent Crude trades oil from the North Sea in northern Europe, setting the standard for international oil prices. While the West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, trades a specific grade of oil traded in Cushing, Oklahoma, that serves as a domestic benchmark for oil prices. A refinery might have a contract with a producer and say, we will pay you that Brent price or we’ll pay you the Brent price minus the transportation costs. Or you know that it’s all subject to negotiation. And those two are well known. It’s a shorthand, if you will. And a lot of times other crudes are priced off of those crudes because they’re well, known the quality is high and has a long track record. Similar to most treated commodities, oil prices rely heavily on how much of it is available on the market. In other words, supply and demand. Oil like just about anything else in the world is determined that prices are determined by a willing buyer and a willing seller. And so that means that as demand goes up, more people are buying it.

The price will typically go up, supply stays the same and vice versa. If supply suddenly increases, then then typically the price will go down if the demand stays the same. The demand is determined by how much oil is needed at any given moment due to its crucial role in the economy. High demand has often been associated with a healthy economic growth. Historically, oil demand has moved with the economy of a country. It’s been very tightly tied because almost all transportation comes from burning oil and a lot of other industrial processes use oil. So when the economy is humming along strongly, the demand goes up. And when you have a recession, the demand goes down. On the other hand, supply is usually determined by the producers who have control over its output. Historically, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, otherwise known as OPEC, has played a crucial role in determining the supply. OPEC currently has 13 member countries, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela as founding members. However, a lot has changed in recent years as the U.S. surpassed both Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest crude oil producer since 2018. Thanks to the rise in production from American shale fields. Essentially these countries and OPEC, everyone is competing for market share.

Everyone wants to produce more for their country, but also the optionality to export it to another country and especially growth regions such as China, Asia. Being an investor or a producer in the oil industry means keeping an eye on this fine balance between supply and demand, as well as the geopolitical events that could threaten the industry. Never forget about geopolitics and the impact it can have on the oil price, because that can be that X factor of why oil may have a big premium or a big discount to fundamentals that you see supply and demand. It’s because geopolitics introduces other risk factors. A historic drop occurred on April 20th, 2020, with U.S. oil prices on WTI dropped by almost 300 percent. Trading around negative 37 dollars. What happened with oil in terms of the negative pricing in April with the futures contracts was rather unprecedented. We have seen negative prices before. For example, last year we were talking about negative natural gas prices and Waha in April 2019. But that’s more due to processing or field issues, not what is happened specifically this time with the COVID 19 and in the price war. Oil prices had been under pressure since January as China battled the spread of COVID 19.

When the pandemic finally reached the rest of the world, demand took a devastating hit. People started talking about the demand going down 2 or 3 percent instead of growing by 1 or 2 percent, as was had previously been expected. But then by the time it got to the United States and all over Western Europe, the forecasts were very different. And at the trough, we probably saw demand in April bottom out, down 30 percent. So we’ve never seen anything like this, certainly in the last 40 years since world oil markets have developed. To make matters worse, a price war erupted between Saudi Arabia and Russia in early March after OPEC and its allies failed to reach an agreement on deeper supply cuts. Oil saw its worst trading day in 20, 29 years. Yesterday, both WTI crude and Brent crude lost nearly a quarter of their value, and the S&P energy sector ended the day 50 percent off its 52 week closing high. Saudi Arabia launched a price war against other key producers. As supply remains steady while demand struck record breaking lows. The petroleum industry quickly began running out of storage space to put their oil. Cushing plays a very big role as one of the main hubs of that commercial storage. And Cushing at the time of the negative contract was around 70, 70 percent full, and what was left was perhaps already committed. So that was a huge issue because Cushing plays one of the main roles in pricing the WTI contracts. As the delivery date for WTI grew near. And investors had nowhere to put the oil. They soon began a massive sell off, prompting an unprecedented crash into the negative territory. WTI special in a way, because it’s so tightly connected to physical oil. And so if you’re holding a contract for WTI, you’re expected to take possession of oil.

What was happening was the buyers who had bought a futures contract, which meant they had responsibility to take delivery of the oil, recognized that that storage was filling up and they had no place to put the oil and they didn’t want the oil. And so they wanted to get out of the contract. Usually they can get out of the contract by getting somebody else to take the oil instead at a positive price. Cause oil’s a valuable commodity. But there was nobody who wanted to take that oil, particularly because it was located in an area that was producing way more oil than they needed. And the pipelines to move oil out of that area were completely full. The historic drop quickly sent shockwaves through the U.S. financial market. The Dow plunged by over 1,200 points over the following two days, and brokerage firms like interactive brokers reported taking 109 million dollar hit to cover its customers losses. It was kind of like what happened in 2000 where we we’re wondering if the computers could roll over. Some of the traders computers couldn’t even handle the negative. They weren’t set up for a negative. So you can imagine the disarray and the surprise, you know, that some traders faced the next morning when they looked at their margin calls or what they owed based on the severity of this drop.

However, experts point out that although the event was unexpected, there was no need to panic. It was not unforeseen. The exchange itself saw it as a possibility ahead of time. They actually discussed what to do if that were to happen, reprogram their software and so forth. And at least one major media outlet reported on it a week ahead of time before it happened. Also, some other products have gone negative in the past. Things like natural gas. So I think it’s important to put it in perspective that while this had never happened with oil before, it was just on one particular instrument. The WTI was just for one day and it was seen as at least a remote possibility ahead of time that it happened. It was very few contracts. There was very little trading at those prices and the price very quickly rebounded into positive territory.

PM Modi’s Visit To Saudi Arabia Deepens Bilateral Ties

It goes without saying that India has always cherished to maintain good bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia. The incumbent PM Narendra Modi has right from start always shown a great deal of interest in improving further the bilateral relations between both the countries and deepening them further. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia – Mohammad Bin Salman too has shown great interest in enhancing further the bilateral relations between India and Saudi Arabia.

It goes without saying that the sustained efforts to end the prolonged nonchalant relations between both the countries began seriously for the first time while former PM late Atal Bihari Vajpayee was at the helm of affairs. The first step was taken when Vajpayee’s Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh had travelled to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia in early 2001. We then saw how five years later, King Abdullah visited Delhi which was the first visit to India by a Saudi monarch in half a century to announce a new phase being heralded in bilateral relations. But the depth was still lacking and attention was confined only to buying oil from Saudi Arabia and exporting manpower.

However, much water has flown under the bridge since then! It cannot be denied that the expansion and institutionalization of strategic cooperation between India and Saudi Arabia started taking deep roots during the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s latest two-day visit visit to Saudi Arabia in end of October which is the second in three years. After arriving in Riyadh, PM Modi tweeted on a happy note saying that, “Landed in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, marking the start of an important visit aimed at strengthening ties with a valued friend. Will be taking part in a wide range of programmes during this visit.”

It is quite well known that Saudi Arabia is second biggest supplier of oil to India after Iraq. It is also India’s fourth largest trading partner and the bilateral trade amount adds up to $27.48 billion in 2017-18 and Saudi investment of around $ 100 billion in India in various key areas like energy, agriculture, minerals, mining, petrochemicals and infrastructure is also in the pipeline. This makes the relations between both the countries all the more important and both countries appreciate this fully.

As we all know, this latest visit by PM Modi to Saudi Arabia was about Modi delivering a keynote at the high profile “Future Investment Initiative Summit” that was basically an initiative of Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. It also cannot be denied that this visit of PM Modi to Riyadh truly marks the consolidation of a bilateral partnership that has long struggled to take deep roots and this is in the mutual long term shared interests of both the countries.

It is most refreshing to learn that India and Saudi Arabia have shown together deep interest in last few years to deepen the ties between both the countries. This has culminated in the launch of a Strategic Partnership Council between both the countries during PM Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia just recently. This new body comprising of two mechanisms which will be headed by the Foreign Ministers and Commerce Ministers of both sides will guide and monitor relations in some crucial areas, as for instance, energy, security and trade.

It cannot be lightly dismissed that India is one of eight countries with which Saudi Arabia is forging strategic partnerships under its Vision 2030 policy. Saudi Arabia understands fully the growing potential of India and this alone explains as to why it has placed India in the club of those few countries with whom it is forging strategic partnerships as just stated above. This is bound to deepen the bilateral ties between both the countries.

It is also quite heartening to note that in a marked departure from the one they issued in February 2019, the joint statement by New Delhi and Riyadh made no mention at all on the resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan. In the joint statement that was issued on October 29 after the bilateral meeting was concluded between PM Narendra Modi and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the two sides reiterated their “categorical rejection of all forms of interference in the internal affairs of countries” and the need for the international community to fulfil its responsibilities towards “preventing any attacks on the sovereignty of States”. This was the need of the hour also!

Be it noted, the February 2019 joint statement that was issued after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to India had a full paragraph on India-Pakistan relations stating that, “The two sides stressed the importance of regional stability and good neighbouring relations. His Royal Highness appreciated consistent efforts made by Prime Minister since May 2014 including Prime Minister’s personal initiatives to have friendly relations with Pakistan. In this context, both sides agreed on the need for creation of conditions necessary for resumption of the comprehensive dialogue between India and Pakistan.”

It cannot be lost on us that the recent October 29’s joint statement between both India and Saudi Arabia was silent on India-Pakistan ties or a dialogue. This is a healthy sign as relations between both the countries are now not placing Pakistan on priority list any longer! It has to be unequivocally appreciated!

Also it cannot be ignored that unlike February 2019 when the joint statement said that the Prime Minister and His Royal Highness “condemned in the strongest terms, the recent terrorist attack on Indian security forces on 14 February, 2019 in Pulwama in Jammu & Kashmir”, there was no reference this time to the Pulwama attack. The joint statement said that, “The Indian side condemned the terrorist acts against civilian installations in the Kingdom”. This was a reference to the drone attacks on Saudi oil fields. The joint statement said that both sides expressed their rejection of all terrorist acts and stressed the need to “prevent access to weapons including missiles and drones to commit terrorist acts against other countries”.

Needless to say, the February statement too had called upon “all States to deny access to weapons including missiles and drones to commit terrorists acts against other countries. This time, on terrorism, it said that the two sides stressed that “the extremism and terrorism threaten all nations and societies. They rejected any attempt to link this universal phenomenon to any particular race, religion or culture.” Very rightly so!

More importantly, in a new formulation, both sides also called for “closer cooperation in the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Center”, and also agreed on strengthening cooperation in combating terrorist operations, exchange of information, capacity building and strengthening of cooperation in combating transnational crimes, within the framework of the existing bilateral security cooperation.

Any discussion on India’s deepening ties with Saudi Arabia would be incomplete without mentioning the full list of 12 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that were signed between both the nations following bilateral talks. So let us discuss them one by one. They are as follows:-

1. The most significant MoU was signed to establish a Strategic Partnership Agreement that was signed by the Prime Minister of India – Narendra Modi and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia – Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

2. MoU on Cooperation in the Field of Renewable Energy between Saudi Ministry of Energy and Ministry of New & Renewable Energy of India that was signed by Dr Ausaf Sayeed who is the Ambassador of India to Saudi Arabia and HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud who is Energy Minister of Saudi Arabia.

3. MoU on Security Cooperation that was signed by TS Tirumurti who is Secretary, Economic Relations (ER), Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) of India and HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Naif Al Saud who is Interior Minister of Saudi Arabia.

4. MoU for cooperation in combating illicit trafficking and smuggling of narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances and chemical precursors that was signed by Dr Ausaf Sayeed and HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Naif Al Saud.

5. MoU between Saudi General Authority of Military Industries (GAMI) and Department of Defence Production, Ministry of Defence concerning collaboration in military acquisition, industries, research, development and technology that was signed by TS Tirumurti and HE Ahmad Al-Ohali who is Governor of General Authority of Military Industries of Saudi Arabia.

6. MoU for cooperation in Civil Aviation that was signed by Dr Ausaf Sayeed and HE Abdulhadi Al-Mansouri who is President of GACA in Saudi Arabia.

7. MoU between Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), Ministry of Health & Family Welfare and Saudi Food & Drug Authority (SFDA) for Cooperation in the field of medical products regulations that was signed by TS Tirumurti and HE Dr Hisham Al Jadhey who is CEO of SFDA of Saudi Arabia.

8. Letter of Intent between Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority (Monshaat) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Atal Innovation Mission (AIM), NITI Aayog of the Republic of India that was signed by Dr Ausaf Sayeed and Engineer Saleh Al-Rasheed who is Governor of Small and Medium Development Authorities of Saudi Arabia.

9. Cooperation Programme between Foreign Service Institute, MEA and Prince Saud Al Faisal Institute of Diplomatic Studies (IDS) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia by Dr Ausaf Sayeed and Dr Abdallah Bin Hamad Al Salamah who is Director General of Prince Saud Al Faisal Institute for Diplomatic Studies.

10. MoU between Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) and Saudi Aramco signed by HPS Ahuja who is CEO and MD of ISPRL of India and HE Ahmad Al-Subayae who is Vice-President of ARAMCO of Saudi Arabia.

11. MoU for Cooperation between National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) signed by Vikram Limaye who is MD and CEO of National Stock Exchange of India and Engineer Khaled Al-Hasan who is CEO of Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul).

12. MoU between National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and Saudi Payments that was signed by Arif Khan who is the Chief Digital Officer of National Payments Corporation of India and Ziyad Al Yusuf who is MD of Saudi Payment.

In its joint statement pertaining to the volatile Syrian situation, the two leaders of India and Saudi Arabia very rightly highlighted the importance of preserving unity in Yemen, ensuring its stability and coming out with a viable political solution to solve the Yemeni crisis that would be based on the outcome of the Yemeni National Dialogue, GCC initiative and the Security Council Resolution (2216).

On Palestine, India and Saudi Arabia both stressed on the need for achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Palestine based on relevant UN resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative. Both leaders exuded confidence that the peace resolution will guarantee the rights of the people of Palestine and lead to the establishment of their independent state based on the 1967 borders with Jerusalem as its capital.

Last but not the least, the two leaders also agreed on the ever-lasting importance of bilateral engagement in promoting ways to secure the waterways in both the Indian Ocean region and the Gulf, from any threat that may endanger the interests of the two countries including their national security. Finally, we saw how at the end of the visit, PM Modi extended an invitation to King Salman to visit India to complete the consultations and further discuss matters of bilateral cooperation and international issues of mutual interest. PM Modi also reiterated his support to Saudi Arabia for its upcoming Presidency of the G20 in 2020.

On a concluding note, it may well be said that the bilateral relations between India and Saudi Arabia have certainly deepened over the last couple of years but still there is lot of scope for expanding it further which must be worked out exhaustively. No doubt, PM Narendra Modi is showing considerable interest in ensuring that relations between both the countries are further deepened and what is most comforting to note is that this is being reciprocated by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in equal measure! This will benefit both the countries equally!

Sanjeev Sirohi, Advocate,

s/o Col BPS Sirohi,

A 82, Defence Enclave,

Sardhana Road, Kankerkhera,

Meerut – 250001, Uttar Pradesh.

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