• State preparedness to manage the possible third wave of Covid-19 .
• Provides a real time analysis of data – few
suggestions and strategies for effective management
Delhi Administration’s policy responses .
• In January 2021 – first wave subsides – the need for hospitalisation of covid-19 patients fell drastically.
Delhi administration was using less than 20% of its bed capacity.
• In February 2021 – Delhi Government reduced the bed capacity to the level of just above 5,000
• In March 2021 – health system collapsed – increase in the number of covid-19 cases hit by the second wave of pandemic.
• In April 2021 – bed occupancy went from 33%
to over 90%
Government – increased its bed capacity – could not keep pace with the rise in covid
• In May 2021 – utilisation of government hospital beds went rapidly back to 30%
Many other areas in the country were experiencing a rise in cases.
• COVID-19 waves require the health infrastructure to be elastic .
• Demand for COVID-19-specific health infrastructure is spatially varied – health
capacity at a fixed location will not be sufficient.
• Conveys the difficulty that several administrations in the country face
Hard to increase the capacity in response to the kind of surge – in April 2021
Key health infrastructures don’t exist in all areas in our country
Real time analysis of data .
• 145 districts – accounted for 75% of the cases during the 1st wave – Same accounted
for up to 80% of cases during the 2nd wave.
Permanently at risk Districts – districts that were hit by the 1st wave, affected in the 2nd wave to a greater extent
Population size, density and mobility make them prone to rapid spread.
Need reserve capacity and resources to be expanded – prevent any risk associated
with possible 3rd wave
• Mobility framework – capacity to move healthcare facilities from one area to another
Identify what resources can be moved – based on mobility costs and supply elasticity.
• Policy innovations in three areas
Personnel management – Inducting trained final year medicine and nursing students – Rehiring of retired medical personnel – use
Resources with high mobility costs need to be evenly distributed – ensure equity in access in poorly served areas
Expanding the health infrastructure covering all regions
Providing accessibility through enhanced regional and area connectivity .
• Leads to sharing of resources within the country – reduces inaccessibility and
• Efficiency of resource-sharing increases with the
area of coverage.
States or districts – benefits of resource sharing is larger – coordinate and build trust
• Greater institutional coordination for a long run is
Bodies such as the National Disaster Management Authority and the NITI Aayog could play a vital role.