Zero probability of recession in India.

Amid global pandemic accompanied by Russia-Ukraine crises and rising prices of fuels, the major economies across the globe are facing economic slowdown majorly in the form of peaked inflation, unstable government, industrial slowdown, low supplies and much more consequences. Some of the economies have slipped into crises, while some are struggling through the worst phase of slowdown. Industry experts have been showing aspersions that a global recession is just around the corner.

The recent survey by Bloomberg has attempted to gauge the percentage probabilities of various countries slipping into recession. The survey by Bloomberg said that risk of recession in a handful of Asian economies is rising as higher prices spur central banks to accelerate the pace of their interest rate hikes. Sri Lanka, which is in the midst of its worst economic crisis ever, has an 85% probability of falling into recession in the next year, up from a 33% chance in the previous survey by far the highest increase in the region. Economists see a 20% chance that China will enter recession, and a 25% likelihood that South Korea or Japan will enter one. Bloomberg economists also raised their expectations for a chance of recession in New Zealand, Taiwan, Australia and the Philippines to 33%, 20%, 20% and 8%, respectively. Central banks in those places have been raising interest rates to tame inflation.

India being one of the major and growing economy, also have been facing the consequences of global crises, particularly inflation. The survey report by Bloomberg for India is that it mentions that India has zero probability of slipping into recession. India literally has 0 percent chances of recession as against economic giants US and China which has 40 percent and 20 percent respectively. Although for India, surging domestic prices of key commodities is mainly on account of imported inflation, retail inflation based on consumer price index stood at 7.01%. In April, it had jumped to 8-year high of 7.79% have feared the economist about a probable recession but the case for India is much better compared to other economies.

Zero probability of recession in India.

Trade Cycle

Trade cycle or business cycle refers to cyclical fluctuations in economic activities like employment, income, prices etc. It is a characteristic feature of capitalist system. In a trade cycle, there are alternating waves of expansion and contraction. These waves recur frequently and in similar patterns. It comprises of a period of good trade wherein the prices are high and unemployment is low and a period of bad trade wherein the prices are low and unemployment is high.
A business cycle usually consists of four phases. These phases do not have a definite time intervals or periodicity. The four phases are: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression.
Recovery is the first phase in the trade cycle. It is the revival period. Here entrepreneurs increase the level of investment. This in turn leads to increased employment and income. A increased income level means more purchasing power in the hands of people which leads to more demand for consumer goods. This leads to increase in prices for commodities and eventually leads to profit generation Business expectations improve and optimism prevails.
Prosperity is the second phase in the trade cycle. In this stage, demand, output, employment and income are at the peak levels. Increased profits lead to increased stock market values. There is expansion in economic activities. Demand and prices go up. The production level is very high and known as boom. The economy surpasses the level of full employment to reach the level of over full employment. This leads to inflation and is a sign of end of prosperity.
Recession is the third phase of the trade cycle. It starts when there is a downward descend from the peak. The level of investment declines and consequently the demand for raw materials decline as well. Liquidity preference rises in the economy. The margin of profit declines and a wave of pessimism spreads in the business. Recession can be mild or severe.
Depression is the fourth phase of the trade cycle. It’s characteristic feature is the general fall in all economic activities. Production, employment, income decline. This general decline in economic activities lead to fall in bank deposits. Credit creation declines and bank rate falls. Distribution of national income change and margin of profit declines.

https://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/trade-2/trade-cycle-4-phases-of-trade-cycle-discussed/23414

There are several factors responsible for the existence of fluctuations and trade cycles. External factors like political events, growth rate of population, migrations, discoveries, innovations etc are responsible for the cyclical fluctuations in the economy. As far as internal factors are concerned, mechanisms within the economy give rise to repetitive fluctuations. Over investment is one such factor. It is the credit availability by the banks which leads to over investment in capital goods rather than consumer goods. This eventually brings depression in the economy. Competition may be another reason for fluctuations. The profit motive causes firms to anticipate demand and subsequently do excess production. For this, firms hire more workforce and cost of production increases. This raises the prices of the commodities and decline in the demand for them. This ultimately leads to depression.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/businesscycle.asp

Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Economy and The World.

India has been under lockdown phase 4 until May 31^st with some relaxations. Prime Minister Mr. Modi announced a relief package of 20 lakh Crores INR for various sectors to propel economic growth on May 17. Some relaxations which were provided to Red, Orange and Green zone areas during the Lockdown 3.0 like opening of some of the individual shops of non-essential items were extended to Medium and small scale industrial sector, farm and trading sector. Malls, Cinemas, restaurants and places with probable high foot fall remained closed. India now is ranked third in the world in terms of coronavirus cases, after the US and Brazil.

The COVID-19 pandemic pushed economies into a Great pushback, which helped contain the virus and save lives, but also triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Over 75 per cent of countries are now reopening at the same time as the pandemic is intensifying in many emerging market and developing economies. Few countries have started to recover. However, in the absence of a medical assistance, the strength of the recovery is highly uncertain and the impact on sectors and countries are uneven.

The entire country remained under lockdown till May 31, 2020 followed by Unlock phase-1 from June 1 and June 14. Up to May 31, was the Lockdown 4. Earlier the Lockdown 3 was up to May 17, Lockdown 2 was upto May 3 and before that the Lockdown 1 was from March 22 to April 16, 2020. Prime Minister Mr. Modi announced measures with some relaxations. According to experts, this is being done to ensure that the Food Safety of India is protected as Rabi harvesting season is on anvil. PM Modi said detailed guidelines have kept in mind the needs of the informal sector and farmers. India now joins countries such as France, USA which are moving with the idea of unlock phases after extended lockdowns.

The Harsh Effects on World Economies

A high degree of uncertainty surrounds this forecast, with both upside and downside risks to the outlook. On the upside, better news on vaccines and treatments, and additional policy support can lead to a quicker resumption of economic activity. On the downside, further waves of infections can reverse increased mobility and spending, and rapidly tighten financial conditions, triggering debt distress. Geopolitical and trade tensions could damage fragile global relationships at a time when trade is projected to collapse by around 12 per cent.

This pandemic like no other will have a recovery like no other. First, the unprecedented global sweep of this crisis hampers recovery prospects for export-dependent economies and jeopardises the prospects for income convergence between developing and advanced economies. We are projecting a synchronised deep downturn in 2020 for both advanced economies (-8 per cent) and emerging market and developing economies (-3 per cent; -5 per cent if excluding China), and over 95 percent of countries are projected to have negative per ca-pita income growth in 2020. The cumulative hit to GDP growth over 2020–21 for emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, is expected to exceed that in advanced economies. Sooner or later this crisis will vanish and it has to because change is the undisputed law of nature. The only thing waiting for us after this epidemic is a shattering or rather say, a collapsing economy for many nations. We are fighting this pandemic together hence same should be our spirit in handling the ruptured economy. With confirmed case count for India crossing a million and more than 26000 deaths, all we can do is to get more strongly committed to all guidelines and suggested precautions by governments and health agencies worldwide.

Why Australia is least affected by recession!!!

America’s economy is approaching a big milestone. If it keeps humming until July 2019, it’ll be the longest expansion in U.S. history. It would be exactly one decade and one month old by then. But there’s another country with an even more impressive run It’s even called the ‘lucky country’ Three big lessons from Australia.

Be smart.
Be organized.
Be lucky.

So, if I’ve got any advice for other countries, it’s try and be as lucky as Australia That luck has to do with Australia’s treasure trove of natural resources. You know Australia is on the other side of the world and sitting on tremendously valuable minerals right at the point where the Chinese economy is just around the corner and exploding. Australia and every one its natural resources were within the right geographic neighborhood even as the Chinese economy began to begin . And it just so happens that China did a big fiscal stimulus in 2008 and spent a great deal of money building new cities. So all of these resources were drawn from places like Australia. So that also served as a huge tailwind at a time when developed markets were in a whole lot of trouble.

The year 2008 was a time of economic turmoil The Global Financial Crisis hit and markets crumbled around the world. But as it turns out this was also a year for Australia’s economic management to really show off At the time the government had a very helpful and very low level of debt. One reason? Pension reform in the 1990s. Australia set up a compulsory retirement system called the superannuation system. It requires employers put money into its employees’ retirement savings.

Since companies and citizens have to build up retirement savings, some of the financial burden to pay off pensions was taken off of Australia’s government As other economies reeled in the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Australian Government was then able to put money directly into people’s bank accounts This boosted consumer spending in order to stimulate growth In 2008, the Australian Government unlike some other developed market governments actually jumped in very quickly with fiscal stimulus, so that helped to kind of minimize the effect of the crisis The country’s numbers continued to look sluggish after the financial crisis. But they never quite dipped low enough or for long enough to satisfy the definition of a recession. It takes two quarters of negative growth to fall into a recession. Australia’s economy did post a couple of negative quarters since 2008, but no country’s perfect. Overall Australia’s economy has been managed pretty much in recent years partly due to a robust and stable financial institution.

Australia has an independent financial institution and it is a very well-run financial institution . It also has a floating exchange rate and the exchange rate helped it adjust to international shocks. Australia’s economic reforms gave it flexibility in times of hardship. For example, floating the Australian dollar In 1983, Australia’s government moved the dollar onto a floating exchange rate This meant that the dollar would be valued by supply and demand instead of being subject to influence from its government or its central bank It allows the economy to react to shocks as well Typically when an economy is hit by some sort of negative shock. The currency will adjust. It will depreciate and that helps promote exports. Another reason behind Australia’s economic diary lies in its immigration policy. Since the late 1990s, Australia has seen growth in temporary migration, many arriving to the country on student or temporary work visas. The number of temporary migrants peaked in the year 2000. However a recent change to immigration law in 2018 gave visa applicants more hurdles to get through if they wanted to come to the country Even when our GDP per capital average incomes aren’t rising by much because the number of people continues to rise that means the total GDP continues to rise at even more rapid pace Part of that’s underpinned by much faster population growth Most experts think Australia’s economy remains strong in 2019, but it’s not without risks.

Australia’s suffering at the instant from pretty weak wage growth. That’s worrying a lot of people. There’s a lot of fear right now that China is hitting a wall. That will hit demand for Australian products. The good news is to the extent that the Chinese are buying commodities hopefully will find buyers from overseas for many of those commodities if the Chinese are not there The bad news is the rest of the world economy is not doing that well.

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