Public Perception of Corruption in the Police and Police-Community Relations in Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Public Perception of Corruption in the Police and Police-Community Relations in Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Egwu, Francis Ogbonnia

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Nigeria Email: francis.egwu@funai.edu.ng

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8519-8303

Nlemchukwu Emmanuel Chigozirim

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Nigeria Email: nlemchukwu.emmanuel@funai.edu.ng

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6403-6507

**Daniel Chidiebere Onwe**

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Nigeria Email: onwedaniel1990@gmail.com

 ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4168-148X

Corresponding author***

Adinde, Kenneth Umezulike

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Nigeria Email: kenneth.adinde@funai.edu.ng

 ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7458-7847

Igwe Kenneth Chiemeka

Department of Political Science, Alex Ekwueme Federal University,

Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Nigeria

 Onyeacho Chike, ESQ

Department of Criminology and Security Studies,

University of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Umuagwo, Imo State

Izuogu Augustine

 Department of Criminology and Security,

University of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Imo State

Nwadiani Grace Chinelo

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Nigeria

Email: nwadianigracy@@gmail.com  

Abstract

The present study examined public perception of police corruption and police community relationship in Ebonyi State, Nigeria. The study adopted quantitative method of data collection, sampling of 399 which comprises 243 males and 156 females, with stratified and simple random sampling technique. The study is anchored on structural functionalism theory as its framework. The findings of the study revealed that the public tends to dislike the police and as such, do not trust the police which in turn, alienates positive police-community relationship. The high practice of bribery, corruption, extortion and brutality on citizens impedes the trust and confidence of the public towards to the police. The study recommends that there should be periodic host of mutual police-community programme and festive by the police to enhance positive relationship with the public. Active team should be established and improved on proper surveillance, monitoring, evaluation and auditing the activities of the police force.

Keywords: Community Relation, Corruption, Police, Police-Community Relationship, Police Corruption

Introduction

The police is arguably the most visible agent of government and citizens often assess the character of a government through its police force. This is because the police are the “guardians” of society. To a large extent, the growth, actions and behaviours of the police as an institution, not only reflect the political and economic character of society, but also mirror what those in power are willing or able to tolerate or condone or perhaps even demand of the police. Thus any adequate analysis of the problems and challenges of the Nigeria Police must start with the appreciation of the history and dynamics of its development, which from its infancy in 1861 was characterised and cultured in impunity, incivility, brutality, a lack of transparency and accountability all of which eventually metamorphosed into large scale corruption. Corruption within the Nigeria Police is not unique. Corruption exists in the Nigeria Police Force much the same as it does in any other police organisation the world over, except perhaps, in terms of its extent and the organisation’s reaction to it. However, the issue of corruption in the Nigeria Police cannot be treated in isolation of the larger society. To achieve any success in combating corruption in the Nigeria Police one has to take a holistic approach and most importantly understand the growth and existence of corruption within the police (ICPC, 2008)

Corruption in the police organisation is not just limited to Nigeria as it also has global antecedent. In Palestine, It has been repeatedly asserted by a number of observers and monitoring organizations that corruption within Palestinian institutions (public, private, and civil society organizations) is prevalent (ICHR, 2012a, Ramahi, 2013, AMAN, 2013). According to several opinion polls and recent reports, Palestinian police were reported to be involved in “patronage, nepotism, and favoritism”, “prejudice”, “police brutality”, and “waste of public funds” (ICHR, 2012a; AMAN, 2012). They were rarely reported to be involved in other serious forms of corruption such as bribery, “the fix”, and “direct criminal activities”. In spite of this, the subject of police corruption has received very little attention in the research literature on Palestine. This may be due to a number of reasons. As with most police organizations, the Palestine police leaders might not be open to having outside researchers investigate such a sensitive topic. Police officers within the Palestine police might also be reluctant to discuss corruption for fear of damaging the image of the Palestinian struggle against the occupation and other possible fallouts. Finally, the nature and extent of police corruption are difficult to capture and gauge accurately using empirical methods.

In contemporary Nigeria, the public sees the police as an instrument and face of the government in power that is always ready to unleash terror at the slightest opportunity, hence they are held in low regard and do not enjoy the habitual cooperation of the public. The public perception of the police is not shaped by the kind of job they are called upon to do but by the attitude of the personnel. Their roles in many cases denigrate the law, endangering the citizens and blotting the institutional reputation of the police that they represent. The police no doubt know that they are not liked by the public, despite the fact that they risk their lives to protect them. At the very slightest opportunity, they are booed and jeered at by the public who call them derogatory and disgusting names. This dislike or resentment of the police apparently has some bearing on Nigeria Police colonial history. The police are conceived, not as a service organization for native, because of the use to which the colonial masters put the police that were harassing and arresting tax defaulters, brutalizing trade unionists and other nationalists, and torturing persons accused of criminal offences, nobody wanted to have anything to do with the police. It will be seen, therefore, that from the beginning, a serious communication gap was built between the police and the public and this mutual distrust rather than disappear has continued to grow wider. The situation is so bad that it became fashionable for parents to threaten their unwary and troublesome children with police presence (Odu cited in Asemota, 2012). The unfortunate mundane picture of the police painted here by the public has created serious problems for the police/public relations.

Brief Overview of Nigeria Police and Police-Community Relationship

What is today known as the Nigeria police force is the brainchild of the British colonial government and it dates back to 1861, following the annexation of Lagos (Tamuno, 1970). Although various nationalities all had their local ways of policing before the advent of the British colonialists, but such arrangements were based on a part-time basis. Most of these police were not paid formal salary; they got their rewards from gifts and gratifications in an informal way and they were natives of the area they policed. Dambazau (2004) noted that the Nigeria police, from inception, was not put in place to protect the interest and as well as the wellbeing of the people. The Nigerian police was borne out of the desire by the British colonialists to protect themselves, their interest and their trade. The British consul charged with the administration of Lagos established a Consular Guard in Lagos by the Police Act of 1861 to maintain law and order. In 1861, the 30-member Consular Guard was renamed Hausa Guard. It was further regularized in 1879 by an ordinance creating a constabulary for the Colony of Lagos thus the Hausa Guard became known as Hausa Constabulary and its men mainly drawn from among the Hausa ethnic group. The constabulary was mainly military in character, though it performed some police duties (Tamuno, 1970).

In 1861, the Lagos Police Force was created and armed like the Hausa Constabulary. With the proclamation of Northern and Southern protectorates in 1914 until 1930, they were merged to form the present Nigeria Police Force with headquarters in Lagos (Tamuno, 1970). In 1943, the Northern and Western Regions of Nigeria established their own regional police forces. All the northern and southern protectorates police forces were merged with the Nigeria Police Force in 1968 and with the creation of Abuja as Federal Capital Territory in 1976, the headquarters of Nigeria police shifted from Lagos to Abuja ( Alemika & Chukwuma, 2000). Currently, the Force Headquarters of the Nigeria Police is located at Shehu Shagari Way, Abuja Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Since 1976, the Police Force has been undergoing series of structural changes. Like promotion, establishment of departments more zonal and state commands, divisions and special branches to checkmate its public relations and consequently upsurge of crime in the country. Police cannot perform their duties without having a good relationship with the community wherein they serve. Similarly, the community will live in absolute anxiety and fear of attack without police. There is need to maintain and sustain a mutual relationship between the police and public in the society. Akpotu (2003) contends that the Nigeria police have a very poor relationship with people right from time. This is as a result of corruption, envy and brutality that they mete out to the people. In any rally or demonstration, they turn to fuel the event by shooting the public. Mbachie (2005) lamented that the practice of the police does not help matters in promotion of cordial relationship with the public. The police cause many accidents that claimed lives through their checkpoints on the roads. Ehon (2003) also asserted that the culture of monetization and the tendency to get rich quick among members of the police force have affected their relationship with the public. He further expressed his feeling that police do not believe in hard work; they have thrown the values of the society into the dustbin. With the above stated problems, the public seem to perceive the police as enemies. This has made the police to come out with some programmes aimed at establishing a cordial and friendly relationship with the public. Yecho (2005) maintains that the police enforce law in a way that is essentially indiscretion. According to him, they seek to favour culprits who are highly influential in the society to the detriment of the common masses. They appear blind to justice and equity and consequently twist the law to suit their selfish interest. By implications, the police rather than effectively controlling crime are actually in the habit of violating the laws of criminal justice system in order to protect those in high positions and control of power and resources (Yeche, 2005). Adesina (2003) sums it up that police-community relationship in Nigeria has been a poor one. The police are disliked instead of liked, distrusted instead of trusted, hated instead of loved. They cause disharmony instead of harmony and this has resulted in total loss of confidence by the public in the Nigeria police. This has become evident of the poor police-public relations in Nigeria.

A good rapport and goodwill between police and the public enable police to serve the public better and the public also feel better. Black (2011) maintains that under modern conditions, no government organization of any kind can operate successfully without the cooperation of its publics. These publics may be both at home and overseas, but mutual understanding will be a potent factor for success in every case. The police require knowledge on how the community operates in order to take full advantage of the facilities and services provided by the police. There is clearly need for good police public relationship to help citizens understand the responsibilities of Nigeria Police Force in the society. Good police public relations enables the police to have a better understanding of the public’s concerns especially crime related issues, and citizens are more inclined to report crimes that occur to the police, provide tips and intelligence to the police, willingly serve as witnesses, and happily participate in criminal justice system. Incidentally, police also become more proactive thereby preventing crimes before they occur or minimizing their impact, instead of simply reacting to calls for service from members of the public. Good police-public relations prevents the possibility that the pubic think that police are simply a mechanism for intelligence collection and as such denying them vital information that would aid in crime detection, prevention and apprehension of criminals. Poor police public relations denies the police basic understanding of public problems, goals, desires, and in turn the public also are denied access to the police especially those in need of the police services. They perceive police as an agent that occupies an out-of-touch force that does more harm than good to the public. In these situations, police rarely assume a reactive mode of response to public problems. It is evident that the Nigeria police are highly and visibly subservient to the rich and powerful, even in the rendering of services and as such spoiled their relationship with the public. The Nigeria police have engaged themselves in much brutality on the poor masses. In this way, they hinder the desired public cooperation. Finally, public participation involves members of the public taking an active role in trying to genuinely help the police to illicit information on the whereabouts of criminals in the society. Indeed, the failure of the police in Nigeria and other developing countries generally can be traced to ignorance, lack of trust by the public and the total uncooperative posture due to police insensitivity to the suffering of the people. The police should stop being snipers but learn to stop snipers in Nigeria. Benjamin (2001) also points out that the police have not been useful nor helpful in promoting its image before the general public, as there are many cases of murder, assassination, and robbery which took place in the society that have lasted for two or more years without the police’s identification of the culprits, let alone arresting and prosecuting such groups or gangs. The failure of the police according to Benjamin to either apprehend killers of robbery victims and assassins all over the county has apparently reinforced the belief of critics who describe the police force as dubious, corrupt, inept and brutal.  

Objectives of the Study

The following research questions were formulated to guide the study;

1. Ascertain the public perception of police corruption on police-community relationship in South East, Ebonyi State, Nigeria?

2. Identify factors responsible for the poor state of police-community relationship in South East, Ebonyi State, Nigeria?

3. Suggest possible measures could be adopted to curb police corruption and enhance police-community relationship in South East, Ebonyi State, Nigeria?

Concept of Police-Public Relation

Public Relations refers to a management function of a continuing and planned character, through which public or private organization and institution seek to win and retain the understanding, sympathy, and support of those with whom they are or may be concerned by evaluating public opinion about themselves, in order to correlate as far as possible, their own policies and procedures to achieve by planned and widespread information, more cooperation and more efficient fulfillment of their common interests (IPRA at the Hague, 1960 as cited in Keghku, 2005). Public relations entail the management function which evaluates public attitudes, identifies the policies and procedures of an individual or an organization with the public interest, and executes a programme of action to earn public understanding and acceptance (Grisworld, 1977 in Keghku, 2005). Black (2011) defines public relations as a practice and the art of analyzing trends, predicting their consequences, counseling organization’s leadership, and implementing planned programmes of action which will serve both the origination and the public interest.

Police-community relations refers to a management function of a planned and continuing character whereby the police as a public institution seek ways to win and retain the understanding, sympathy, support, and co-operation of members of the public both as individuals and a collectivity towards effective discharge of their statutory responsibilities as a crime prevention and fighting outfit in society (Chukwuma, 2005). As a corollary to the foregoing, in the police-public relations endeavour, it is not only the police that make the move but also the public who are also expected to embrace every move by the police towards establishing cordial relations between the two parties in the efforts at crime fighting and prevention of social disorder. The foregoing -shows that any meaningful police-public relations is expected to be a two-partite move towards cooperation and support for crime fighting and social disorder prevention. That is n to say, like in the case of corporate image management in business administration, police-public relations as an endeavour should not be “monologic” (coming from one party) but “dialogical” in nature (Massey, 2013). Worthy of note here again is the relationship between the two concepts of police-community relations and community policing. All too often since the mid 1980s it made its debut into the Nigerian soil as an attempt to strengthen the obvious decline in the capability of the conventional police to stem the rising wave of criminality across Nigeria, the concept and practice of community policing has been widely confused with that police public relations. The point is that while police-community relations is an integral part of the larger practical project known as community policing, the two mean different things. For instance, while police-community relations is an intangible attitudinal construct, community policing is a practice that entails police-community partnership and community problem solving (BJA, 2008).

Factors Impeding the Effectiveness of Police-Community Relationship

There is no doubt that the effectiveness and efficiency of the Nigeria police have been under stress and adversely affected by various problems such as inappropriate policing orientation and strategies with emphasis on reactive instead of proactive/preventive measures, brutality against citizens, including extrajudicial killing, corruption and extortion, poor performance in the areas of intelligence analysis and utilization as well as investigation and perversion of the course of justice etc (Jike, 2003; Ekpeyong, 1987; Alemika, 1993; Onoge, 1993). Onoge (1993) observed that the sloganeering “Police is your friend” in present-day Nigeria notwithstanding, the rival popular image of the police as corrupt “kill and go” squad has not abated. Onoge wondered that despite three decades after independence Nigeria still quests for a social order based not on brute force but on just and moral consensus. Violence, inter-communal and religious conflicts remain, corrupt looting of the national treasury continues to occur, all sorts of violent crime are committed with reckless abandon in the full glare of the police statutorily charged with public peace and order maintenance; all of these signal the lack of commitment to orderly development of the Nigeria socio-political space (Onoge, 1993). Till date, it is somehow very disturbing that despite the constitutional powers granted the police to maintain public peace, safety and general security in Nigeria, the quality of security has nothing to be proud of and it has no doubt generated a great deal of controversies (Odekunle, 2004) Odekunle declared “ Nigeria police force falls short of optimum performance”. This is manifest in the widespread inefficiencies, corruption, unfairness in dealing with suspects, occasional over-use of legitimate force, bad temper, bullying, and other abuses of citizen’s rights with impunity. The Apo six killings in Abuja by the police in 2005 is an example (Brewier, Gueke, Hwne, Moxon-Browne and Wilford, 1996). Ekpeyong (2007) argued that there were reports of some crimes committed with the connivance or participation of the police. This is also evident in „how the police protect robbers: a victim’s account‟ in Tell Magazine, December 31, 2001. It was reported in this paper that some of the special Anti Robbery squad of the Nigeria police, Lagos command, struck a deadly partnership with armed robbers, helping them escape justice and threatening the lives of victims who make efforts to recover their stolen property. Ekpeyong also observed that there were cases of alleged destruction of crime evidence and reports by the police, arrested persons released, criminal charges and prosecutions dropped in exchange for bribes or other benefits. Ekpeyong also averred that false charges were reportedly made against innocent and ignorant citizens, criminal investigations suspended and other abuse of rights with impunity were rampant among the police. The poor educational attainment, the lack of the requisite professional qualification, the recruitment of low-skilled persons, and low salary scale which had lagged behind the national minimum for several years but until now, is allegedly at the root of the misdeeds of the police and high attrition rates (Ekpeyong, 2007). In line with the police inefficiency, Orobator (1993) observed that the problem of under-funding is not peculiar to the police, but said it will remain a recurring problem so long as the supply of national resources cannot meet the demand for social services. From this point, however, the under-funding of the Nigeria Police has reduced their state of preparedness and level of efficiency to a pitiful level. The acute shortage of accommodation for the policemen made the co-ordination of their activities difficult and this adversely affected their performance. Orobator maintained that the police cannot be said to be better off in terms of equipment, radio and other communication facilities that can hardly be relied upon, as their capacity for mobility is at best close to zero. He said, cases of an entire Police Division having only a vehicle, which is usually not always road-worthy, are abundant and indeed there are stations without vehicles at all. The end result, according to Orobator (1993), is that the Nigeria Police Force is not adequately equipped for its job; the nonchalant attitude to work is an additional factor that has aided the inefficiency of the police in crime prevention and control in Nigeria. Alemika (2003) was of the opinion that agencies of crime management in Nigeria share in common certain problems such as authoritarian or repressive legacy and orientation, lack of consultation with and accountability to citizens; lack of policies that specifically harmonize their operations with democratic principles of criminal justice system; poor funding of activities; poor staffing and inadequate remuneration of staff; inadequate resources; insensibility/insensitivity and thereby non-utilization of scientific research, knowledge and expertise in the various academic fields of criminology, forensic criminology, police science, Psychology, penology, sociology of law, criminal justice and law enforcement to improve training, planning, operations, monitoring and evaluation; corruption; lack of institutionalized mechanisms by which the agencies are answerable to the public for their activities and lack of coordination to achieve efficiency (Alemika, 2003).

Theoretical Framework

This study is anchored on the extant theory of Talcott Parsons 1956 Structural Functionalism. Functionalism draws its inspiration from the ideas of August Comte (1798-1857), Herbert Spencer (1820-1903), Talott Parson (1920-1979), Emile Durkheim (1858-1917) and Robert Merton (1910-2003). Functionalism is a theory that sees society as a complex system whose parts work together to promote solidarity and stability (Macionis, 2010). This perspective looks at society through a macro-level orientation, which is a broad focus on the social structures that shape society as a whole, and believes that society has evolved like organisms (DeRosso, 2003). The theory is of the view that both social structure and social functions are performing in the society. Functionalism addresses society as a whole in terms of the function of its constituent elements, namely, norms, customs, traditions, and institutions. A common analogy, popularized by Herbert Spencer, presents these parts of society as “organs” that work toward the proper functioning of the “body” as a whole (Vrry, 2000). For example, each of the social institutions contributes important functions for society: Family provides a context for reproducing, nurturing, and socializing children; education offers a way to transmit a society’s skills; knowledge, and culture to its youth, politics provides a means of governing members of society; economics provides for the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services; and religion provides moral guidance and an outlet for worship of a higher power; while police provides for security of lives and property. The functionalist perspective emphasizes the interconnectedness of society by focusing on how each part influences and is influenced by other parts. For example, the increase in poor police-public relations will increase the level of crime the society and vice versa. Functionalists use the terms functional and dysfunctional to describe the effects of social elements on society. Elements of society are functional if they contribute to social stability and dysfunctional if they disrupt social stability. Some aspects of society can be both functional and dysfunctional. For example, crime is dysfunctional in that it is associated with physical violence, loss of property, and fear. But according to Durkheim and other functionalists, crime is also for society because it leads to heightened awareness of shared moral bonds and increased social cohesion. So police-community relations play a crucial role in controlling crime of corruption. Police public relations allows people to volunteer information to the police about criminal hideouts as such enabling the police to carry out their functions of crime detection, prevention and apprehension of criminal, thereby effectively maintaining a functioning society. The structural functionalist theory will be adopted as a theoretical guide for the study due to its relevance to the topic of discussion.

Methodology

Study Design, Study Frame and Sample Size

The study employed descriptive survey design. Descriptive survey gives a clear picture of a situation and it serves as a basis for most researchers in assessing the situation as a prerequisite for drawing conclusion. According to Nwankwo (2006) descriptive survey is a research method which focuses on a representative sample derived from the entire population. This design was adopted because of its ability to ensure a representative outlook and provide a simple approach to the study of opinions, attitude and values of individuals. The study area was Ebonyi Metropolis, South-East, Nigeria. The area is made up of thirteen local government. The researcher’s choice of Ebonyi Metropolis was informed by the prevalence of corrupt practices among the police officers on duty. The total population was 214,969, from which a sample of 400 was selected using Taro Yamen formula for sample determination.

Data Collection and Setting and Data Analysis               

The instruments for data collection were questionnaire and In-depth Interview (IDI). The questionnaire was used in collecting quantitative data. For the quantitative data, questionnaires were processed using as Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 20.0. Descriptive statistics such as frequencies, percentages and tables were used for data analysis. The qualitative data were processed using content analysis.

Results

The responses were presented in tables and respondents were asked on how they perceived police corruption on police-community relationship in South-East, Ebonyi State, Nigeria.

S/NITEMSStrongly AgreeAgreeDisagreeStrongly DisagreeMeanDecision
1The police are said to be the people’s friend, this assertion often plays in reality.52401171901.88Rejected
2The public have trust issues on the police and as such, do not have positive relationship with them.20011136523.15Accepted
3The public sees the police as their friend in whom they have full confidence in.40331202061.77Rejected
4Police are corrupt in it’s dealings and regarded as trigger-happy by the public.20110049493.14Accepted
5Due to the involvement of the police in bribery, extortion and other corrupt practices, it breeds negative relationships with the public.2507833383.35Accepted

Field Survey, 2025

From the field survey, the public decline the notion that “police is your friend” thereby depicting that there is no friendly atmosphere of relationship existing between the public and the police. The public tends to dislike the police and as such, do not trust the police which in turn, alienates positive police-community relationship. The police are regarded by the public, as corrupt and trigger-happy agency whom often infringe on enshrined fundamental human rights. The study also reveals that, the negative relationships between the police and public, stems from bribery, corruption and extortion imminent in the police.

Table 9: Identify Factors Responsible for the Poor State of Police-Community Relationship in Ebonyi State.

S/NITEMSStrongly AgreeAgreeDisagreeStrongly DisagreeMeanDecision
1The high practice of bribery, extortion and brutality on the citizens has often impede the trust and confidence on the police.2159951343.24Accepted
2The dented relationship of the police and public is caused by the high practice of corruption imminent in the organization19912540353.21Accepted
3Lack of professional practices and conduct in matters regarding the public renders poor police-community relationship.18911136633.07Accepted
4Absence of proactive policing and lack of intelligence leading to arrest of innocent people causes loss of confidence in the police by the public.2308954263.31Accepted
5Lack of community oriented programmes organized by the police to boost synergy and foster healthy relationships.22511125383.31Accepted

Field Survey, 2025

Table 9 tends to identify the reason for the poor state of police-community relationship. As seen above, the table contains five statements. All the statements contained in the table were accepted following proper mean score analysis. This implies that, there wholesome agreement with the information depicted by the researcher. The study reveals that, the high practice of bribery, corruption, extortion and brutality on citizens impedes the trust and confidence of the public towards to the police. The police are said to act unprofessional in discharging their duty which in turn questions their credibility level by the public, making the public not to have friendly relationships with them. The inability of the police to be proactive in crime prevention and poor intelligence leading to arrest of innocent people also contribute to the poor state of police-community relationship in Ebonyi State. Finally, the police lacks community oriented programmes and do not invest in initiatives that will enhance and foster healthy relationships with the public.

Possible Measures Adopted to Curb Police Corruption and Enhance Police-Community Relationship in the Area.

S/NITEMSStrongly AgreeAgreeDisagreeStrongly DisagreeMeanDecision
1There will be an effective police-community relationship if proper solutions are developed and implemented.2328532503 .25Accepted
2If the police conducts themselves in a professional manner in discharge of their role, there will be enhancement in it relationship with the public.24010030293.38Accepted
3The police should set up an active public complaint unit that will swiftly address community complains on erring officers.19014033363.21Accepted
4Proper check should be done on the activities of the road side policemen to penalize those involve in extortion and bribery.15120029193.21Accepted
5Police officers renumeration should be increased to meet up to average living conditions to caution bribery tendencies.2506544403.32Accepted
6Periodic host of mutual police-community programme and festive by the police will not enhance positive relationship with the public.33541501621.89Rejected

Field Survey, 2025

Table 10 of this study suggests possible solution or measures that can be put in place to halt police corruption and enhance police-community relationship in South-East, Ebonyi State, Nigeria. From the above, the table contains six statements. All the statement were accepted except for statement 6 which was rejected, showing a total disapproval with the information therein. The study reveals that if the police conduct themselves in a professional manner while showing respect for human rights will definitely enhance public trust and confidence in them, thereby strengthening the relationship amongst both parties. The need for the police leaders to set up a working and effective public complaint unit to swiftly respond to public complaints will also strengthen positive relationship with the community. There should be a proper surveillance and check on the conduct and activities of the roadside officer to ensure higher standards of professionalism while discharging their duties. The need for increase in the salaries and renumeration of officers should be implemented so as to curb corruption and bribery due to poor living standards. Lastly, the police should organize frequent or periodic community-oriented programmes that will serve as avenue for togetherness of the public with the police. For such will instill confidence and trust in the heart of the public.

 Discussion of Findings

The public revealed that the notion of “police is a your friend” does not play in reality as the public dislike the police. It is a love-hate relationship. This depicts that there is no friendly atmosphere of relationship existing between the public and the police. The public tends to dislike the police and as such, do not trust the police which in turn, alienates positive police-community relationship. The police are regarded by the public, as corrupt and trigger-happy agency whom often infringe on enshrined fundamental human rights. The negative relationships between the police and public, stems from acts of bribery, corruption and extortion imminent in the police.

Onoge (1993) observed that the sloganeering “Police is your friend” in present-day Nigeria notwithstanding, the rival popular image of the police as corrupt “kill and go” squad has not abated. Onoge wondered that despite three decades after independence Nigeria still quests for a social order based not on brute force but on just and moral consensus. Till date, it is somehow very disturbing that despite the constitutional powers granted the police to maintain public peace, safety and general security in Nigeria, the quality of security has nothing to be proud of and it has no doubt generated a great deal of controversies (Odekunle, 2004).

Findings from the study also emphasized on the high practice of bribery, corruption, extortion and brutality on citizens  by the police which in turn, impedes on the trust and confidence of the public towards to the police. The police acts unprofessional in discharging their duty as such, questions their credibility and effectiveness level by the public, making the public not to have friendly relationships with them. Another factor also reiterated on the study findings is the inability of the police to be proactive in crime prevention and poor intelligence which most times leads to arrest of innocent people. This unprofessional act contributes to the poor state of police-community relationship in Ebonyi State Metropolis. Finally, the police lacks community oriented programmes and do not invest in initiatives that will enhance and foster healthy relationships with the public.

Odekunle (2004) declared “Nigeria police force falls short of optimum performance”. This is manifest in the widespread inefficiencies, corruption, unfairness in dealing with suspects, occasional over-use of legitimate force, bad temper, bullying, and other abuses of citizen‟s rights with impunity. The poor educational attainment, the lack of the requisite professional qualification, the recruitment of low-skilled persons, and low salary scale which had lagged behind the national minimum for several years but until now, is allegedly at the root of the misdeeds of the police and high attrition rates (Ekpeyong, 2007). Ineffectiveness of the police are contributed by poor funding of activities; poor staffing and inadequate remuneration of staff; inadequate resources; insensibility/insensitivity and thereby non-utilization of scientific research, knowledge and expertise in the various academic fields of criminology, forensic criminology, police science, Psychology, penology, sociology of law, criminal justice and law enforcement (Alemika, 2003).

The study also found out there is need for the policemen to conduct themselves professionally. Most especially the roadside officer. If the police conduct themselves in a professional manner while showing respect for human rights, it will definitely enhance public trust and confidence in them, thereby strengthening the relationship with the public. Police leaders should set up a working and effective public complaint unit which will swiftly respond to public complaints, in turn strengthens positive relationship with the community. There should be a proper surveillance and check on the conduct and activities of the roadside officer to ensure higher standards of professionalism while discharging their duties. There should be an increment in the salaries and renumeration of officers in order to curb corruption and bribery tendencies caused by poor living standards. Police should organize frequent or periodic community-oriented programmes that will serve as avenue for togetherness of the public with the police. This friendly atmosphere will imbibe trust and confidence of the police into the people.

Orobator (1993) observed that the problem of under-funding is not peculiar to the police, but said it will remain a recurring problem so long as the supply of national resources cannot meet the demand for social services. From this point, however, the under-funding of the Nigeria Police has reduced their state of preparedness and level of efficiency to a pitiful level. Shortage of accommodation for the policemen made the co-ordination of their activities difficult and this adversely affected their performance. Orobator maintained that the police cannot be said to be better off in terms of equipment, radio and other communication facilities that can hardly be relied upon, as their capacity for mobility is at best close to zero. Alemika (2003) was of the opinion that police in Nigeria is bedeviled with problems such as authoritarian or repressive legacy and orientation, lack of consultation with and accountability to citizens; lack of policies that specifically harmonize their operations with democratic principles of criminal justice system, poor planning, operations, monitoring and evaluation; corruption; lack of institutionalized mechanisms by which the agencies are answerable to the public for their activities and lack of coordination to achieve efficiency.

Conclusion

Regardless of cultural, political, or socioeconomic background, the vast majority of people have one thing in common: to live in a peaceful and prosperous community. A sense of safety and belonging are fundamental to any human’s needs, and without this, it becomes difficult to prosper and develop their best self. Integral to that sense of peace and safety is the relationship between law enforcement and the community in which they live and serve. Police-community relations is a term that can encompass everything from the physical interactions between officers and civilians to the intangible emotions between them such as respect and trust. Essentially, police-community relations are the relationship between the police and the communities they serve. Healthy police-community relations are synonymous with a healthy community.

In general, police-community relations is the relationship between the police and the communities they serve. Both officers and civilians in the community depend on these to be healthy and strong to best preserve public safety and uphold justice. Sadly, there have been longstanding practices in many police departments that have fractured the public trust, such as corruption and using high arrest numbers as a metric for gauging success in departmental evaluations.

Recommendations

In line with the findings of the study, the following recommendations are made:

1. Periodic host of mutual police-community programme and festive by the police will not enhance positive relationship with the public. This should be a community-oriented programme aimed at harmonizing the police and public towards working in one accord. This will also present a friendly atmosphere allowing positive union in an informal setting between the public and the police.

2. There is a dire need for the renumerations and allowances of the police to be looked into. Just like the assertion posits “a hungry man is an angry man”. If a police officer is waged on poor renumeration, such person will transfer aggression to the public it is policing by extorting them thereby escalating corrupt practices.

3. The establishment and improvement of proper surveillance, monitoring, evaluation and auditing team within the police force. This team will serve in the area of checkmating the activities of the police officer, even those on road side. They will specialize in giving listening ear to the public on their complaints without delays.

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Daily writing prompt
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Kidnapping and Socio-Economic Development in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria- A Quasi-Social Analysis.

Citation

C, I. K., Chigoziri, N. E., O, E. F., U, A. K., Augustine, I., Esq, O. C., Onwe, D. C., & Chinelo, N. G. (2025). Kidnapping and Socio-Economic Development in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria- A Quasi-Social Analysis. International Journal for Social Studies, 11(12), 14–32. https://doi.org/10.26643/ijss/11

Igwe Kenneth C

Department Of Political Science, Ae-Funai

**Nlemchukwu Emmanuel Chigoziri, Ph.D

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Ae-Funai

nlemchukwuemmanuel@yahoo.Com 08030819692

Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6403-6507

Corresponding Author

Egwu Francis O

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Ae-Funai

Adinde Kenneth U. Ph.D

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Ae-Funai

Izuogu Augustine

Department of Criminology and Security Studies

University of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Umuagwo, Imo State

Onyeacho Chike Esq

Department of Criminology and Security Studies

University of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Umuagwo, Imo State

Daniel Chidiebere Onwe 

Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Nigeria. Email: Onwedaniel1990@Gmail.Com
Orcid: https:/orcid.org/009-0003-4168-148x

Nwadiani Grace Chinelo

Department of Criminology and Security Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Federal University, Ebonyi State, Nigeria. Email: Nwadianigrcay@Gmail.Com

ABSTRACT

Kidnapping has undoubtedly become a growing, lucrative, and preferable alternative to other types of crime. The gravity of kidnapping has become so intense that it has virtually affected all parts of contemporary Nigerian society. This article investigates kidnapping and the socioeconomic development of the Niger Delta region. The study population is 400 respondents drawn from nine (9) states in the Niger Delta, comprising adult respondents aged 18 to 70 in six selected states of the Niger Delta. The article revealed that kidnapping initially began as a social crusade aimed at emancipating the Niger Delta region and raising awareness of its long-standing neglect, impoverishment, and underdevelopment to the international community. Nowadays, people are kidnapped on a daily basis for various reasons, such as economic, political, and personal differences. Some of the victims are killed or maimed. The article calls for the government at various levels to intensify awareness campaigns on the evils as well as punishment for kidnapping. Additionally, the enabling laws on kidnapping should be increased. The punishment for kidnapping should be as grave as that for murder and other felonious offences to further instill fear in would-be kidnappers. Finally, citizens should be encouraged to report any suspected incidence or kidnap attempt to security agencies without delay. On the other hand, more security personnel should be deployed to the various communities in the Niger Delta with better arms.

Keywords: Kidnapping, Social problem, Niger delta, Government, Policing style

INTRODUCTION

The crime of kidnapping has in recent times become endemic in the Niger delta. It has undoubtedly become a growing, lucrative, and preferable alternative to other types of crime. The gravity of kidnapping has become so intense that it has virtually affected all part of the contemporary Nigeria society.

Hardly a day passes in Nigeria without kidnapping incidents making the headlines in our villages, communities, towns and the social media. Kidnapping is an alien culture in Nigeria society. During pre-colonial and post-colonialism, and immediately after the Nigerian civil war, crimes that existed in Nigeria were burglary. theft, armed robbery, incest and rape. The perpetrators of these crimes were few by then and operated on the dark with utmost secrecy. The operations then did not pose many traits to the stability and security of Nigeria nation.

The current dimension of kidnapping became alarming in the Niger Delta region when militants in February 2006, abducted few oil workers, ostensibly to draw global attention to the dire situation in the oil- rich region of the country. The victims were mostly foreigners. Since then, the menace has so far gained popularity in other parts of the country, especially in the Northern part of the country. Now, their targets are no longer foreigners alone; but practically every Nigerian is a potential target. The group called itself “Enough is Enough” in the Niger Delta claimed responsibility.

            Initially, this started as a social crusade for the emancipation of the Niger Delta region, and to create awareness of aged-long neglect, impoverishment and the underdevelopment of Niger Delta region to the international Community. Now People are kidnapped on daily basis for various reasons such as economic, political and personal differences. Some of the victims are killed or maimed before they are rescued, while others are rescued by their relatives after paying ransom.

Data from 2015 to 2023 global kidnap index by the online tourism site revealed that Nigeria was placed second among the countries with high kidnapping rates. This rating puts Nigeria among countries with serious kidnapping problems. They include: Philippines, Venezuela, Columbia, Brazil, and Mexico (Ujumadu, 20018; Ekpe, 2020). Such report could serve as an assumption due to lack of accurate statistical data. Also, it has been reported that Nigeria as at August 2021, recorded 5612 cases of kidnapping and close to 3000 dead persons in kidnappers’ den as against 4508 cases recorded throughout 2023 (Ekpe, 2023). The former inspector General of police in Nigeria stated that kidnappers and hostage-taker got N100 billion  naira in ransom (about N900 billion naira) between 2015to 2023 (Kyrian, 2023). Kidnapping cases in Niger delta  have been ravaging daily activities. The safety of persons in Nigeria and their property cannot be guaranteed. Kidnapping is an offence punishable by the law in Nigeria. Anybody got involved in the act is expected to face a penalty of l0years imprisonment. Apart from this, some states like Rivers, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Imo, and Delta, Bayelsa, have passed into law a bill termed “prohibition of hostage-taking and related offences law”, with death penalty as punishment for offenders; (Inyang, 2015; Ekpe,2016).

      But with the surge of kidnapping incidence in the state orchestrated by the ineffectiveness of security agents particularly the Nigerian Police, social insecurity and an increase of various forms of crimes, peoples’ safety can longer be guaranteed, nightlife now becomes a bizarre to the people, particularly visitors in the State; business activities also suffers set back as people are afraid of being kidnapped, which led to the reduction in the workforce of some of these industries.

Statement of the Problem

Most Nigerians would agree that crime rates and insecurity in the country have become a source of concern over the years as the country has continued to experience steep rise in crime. Davidson (2020) points out that the general state of insecurity in some parts of the country has no doubt reached a stage where virtually everybody is now worried on the direction it is going. Presently, hardly can people sleep because of the fear of being robbed or kidnapped. Businessmen have taken flight with their businesses for fear of being kidnapped or robbed There are various organized and non-organized crime, such as smuggling of contrabands, especially firearms, counterfeiting, money-laundering, armed robberies, kidnapping, car hijacking, and human trafficking have become sources of worry for the Nigerian government. Likewise, incidents of high-profile crime and politically motivated killings and kidnapping have lately compounded the complexity of the crime situation in the country. Kidnapping is all over Nigeria and the criminal commerce of Kidnapping paints an ugly picture of the already battered image of Nigeria and become a life-threatening ailment. For instance, there is no month in Nigeria when we do not read on the pages of newspapers about cases of kidnapping of young and old people.

There are evidences that, the Niger Delta has lost hope of tomorrow because those who are involved in this ugly business find it difficult to quit because they see it as a business that can never be abolished by any government in Nigeria, in the sense that government of the day is yet to take a bold step to find a lasting panacea to this barbaric act. Onovo (2020) point to an interesting fact when he stated that the one of the barriers that reduces the capacity of governmental agencies to share criminal intelligence negates the fight against crime such as kidnapping. And that the Lack of a national process for generating and sharing intelligence, as well as the Existence of laws that unduly restrict law enforcement access to information, the hierarchical structures of sharing information, Deficits in criminal intelligence analysis. Lack of good technologies to support criminal intelligence sharing are major snag to the fight against kidnapping.

According to Brown, (2019). In his view expressed the fact that all efforts made in several spheres to address this problem have been greeted with little success and the tide has not really been stemmed. Itam (2020) records that governments, in reaction, have set up various anti-kidnapping squads across the country, better equipped with operational facilities to clamp down on kidnapping gangs, and more funds have been pumped into these agencies for maintenance and enhancement of their functioning, but the crime has continued seemingly unabated. In recent time, security enjoys the largest percentage of the budget with over Two billion eight hundred thousand Dollas (2.8$) in the 2023 budget (Nasir Ahmed, 2023). Despite this huge budgetary allocation, the issue of kidnapping has continued to be on the increase. In the light of the above scenarios, that this study intends to look at kidnapping and its implication on the Socio-Economic Development of the Niger Delta.

Objectives of the Study

The general purpose of this study is to determine whether kidnapping, can impact socio Economic Deve1opmen of the Niger delta.

While the specific objectives of the study are to:

1. Ascertain the root causes of kidnapping in the Niger delta .

2. Examine the nature of kidnapping as a crime in the Niger delta.

3. Ascertain the possible causes of the rise in the rate of kidnapping in

Niger delta.

4. Examine the consequences on the socio-economic life of the niger delta.

5. Explore other ways which would complement the ability of the police in the fight against kidnapping in the niger delta.

Scope of Study

The study focuses on “Effect of kidnapping on the Socio-Economic Development in Niger delta. This implies that, the research work was conducted within and around the Niger delta.

Theoretical Framework

The study adopted the anomie/strain theory which attempts to provide the prospective on discrepancies between societal stated goals and the institutionalized means of achieving such goal. Robert K. Merton observed that there is a major contradiction between cultural goals and social structures. He calls this contradiction “Anomie” a concept first introduced by Durkheim. Robert K. Merton’s argument posits that cultural goal of achieving wealth is deemed possible for all citizens even though the social structure limits the legitimate “Institutionalized means” available for obtaining the goals. For Merton, legitimate institutionalized means are the protestant work ethics (hard work, education, deferred gratification). Illegitimate means are force and fraud. Because the social structure effectively limits the availability of legitimate institutionalized means, a strain is placed on people. Soyornbo ( 2016). Believes that it occurs “where there is an acute disjunction between the cultural norms and goals and the socially structured capabilities of members of the group to act in accord with them” In short, strain theory posits that the cultural values and social structures of society put pressure on individual citizens to commit crime. Merton believes that this strain will affect member of the lower class, in this regard therefore, the basic assumptions of the lower class envelopment at a higher level could be seen in the study area as indicated from our findings that unemployment, unequal distribution of natural resource, nature and character of the state has prepared reserved army of youths for recruitment in kidnapping and other crime related incidences. Thus, stalling socio-economic development in Niger delta. Drawing from Jock young on Merton’s anomie/strain theory, in his recent book, the exclusive society (2020), which he located crime in relation to both structural and cultural processes. Stating that structurally speaking, young argues that the dismantling of the welfare state, alongside increasing disparities between the rich and the poor, have served to further exclude disadvantaged groups. This theory explains the social problem of kidnapping in Niger delta, and its implications on the socio-economic development, the above argument of Metron’s theory reveals the menace. This is because, many Nigerians are unemployed and are living below the poverty line of two dollar a day, they invariably innovate their own means (kidnapping) which is not in line with the societal set goals to make a living. This implies that, if there are no jobs for the teeming population of graduates, and a good take home package for salary earners, kidnapping will always be a lucrative alternative venture to make a living alongside other crimes. The Anomie theory has is justified for adding an important dimension to our understanding that kidnapping is as a result of the strain between the societal set goals.

Experience of kidnapping in the Niger delta

In Akwa Ibom state, particular in uyo capital city the list of these been kidnapped keep increasing, the Akwa Ibom State Police Command on the 5thof July2024 arrested four suspected kidnappers after a distress call which gave notification of a kidnap incident at Utang Street by Gibbs Street, Uyo. The Command’s Anti-Robbery Squad. according to the police authorities, immediately swung into action and mobilized to the scene where four male suspects, Abdulkarem Yusuf , Yusuf Waziri’, Inbinabo Sunny Iboroma and Abdulrahman Abbas were arrested.Preliminary investigations revealed that the suspects had earlier kidnapped one Abraham Ekpe at Ring Road 3, Opposite Cemetery. The gang members were arrested while they were on the verge of kidnapping one “Richie”, the friend of their victim (Abraham Ekpe).
Their plan was to take them to the Odukpani Local Government Area of Cross River State.
The Police Public Relations Officer, ASP Timfon John confirmed that the kidnap suspects had demanded a ransom of five million naira from their victim, but he could not pay, prompting them to also kidnap his friend. The victims were all rescued successfully and have been reunited with their families. One red color Honda Accord car with registration number BJ 615 ABC, one handcuff, one dagger was recovered. The suspects will be charged to court upon completion of investigation.

Mr. Owen Owen, an expatriate oil worker with Exxon Mobil was kidnapped in a church premises close to his Mobil quarter horn in Eket. He was released after paying some ransom. Men of God and their children are not spared as some criminals on November 24, 2008 trailed one Evangelist Ita Enyong while on his way to church and kidnapped him. The daughter of a prominent preacher in Uyo, Abel Darnina, was also a victim. The list grew to include Mrs. Comfort Aloysius Etok, wife of a formal senator politician in Akwa Iborn State, who was kidnapped on Thursday, October 16, 2008. Others include: a Lebanese working with STEMCO, Sassive Khali and Hon. Nse Ntuen, the Chairman of ALGON –Formal Association of Local Government Council of Nigeria (David, 2019; Nsoh, 2019). Also, one Mr. Ikpe of Uruan Local Government Area was kidnapped and until today, he is nowhere to be found. His incidence left people to argue that he has been sent to his grave by his abductors (Micheal, 2020).

On June 14, 2019, the father of the former speaker, Akwa Ibom House of Assembly, Chief Nelson Effiong was kidnapped and killed after ransom payment had been made. Mr. Ubong Obot (Obotex) was also reported kidnapped and his barber who came to give him hair cut at his residence was killed in the process (David, 2019; Inyang, 2019). In June 30, 2020; a businessman, Engineer, Emmanuel Okon Ekpeyong and his younger sibling, Mathias, were killed in a foiled kidnap attempt. According to Inyang. (2020), the younger Ekpeyong was shot dead by an unknown kidnapping gang after pitting up a brave resistance against the abduction of his brother who was then bundled into the booth of an Audi 80 car. However, the bravado of Engineer Ekpeyong who forced the booth open tried to escape while the car was in motion proved to be in vain as he was brought down by the kidnapper’s bullets.

A two-year-old boy, Master Favour Felix Effiong was reported kidnapped by people suspected to be ritualist. The boy according to family sources was kidnapped at about 10pm, on Wednesday, September 23 2019, on his way from church program with his mother. Also, Deaconess Ema Eshiet, mother of Mrs. Iniobong Eshiet, a former member of the Akwa Ibom State House of Assembly, was reported kidnapped in her house in Etinan Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, on Wednesday, November 4, 2019. Information holds that the woman was released upon the payment of ten million Naira in somewhere in Port Harcourt City.

One Samuel Ita Imekong, a student of the University of Uyo was reported kidnapped by an identified hoodlums on November 25, 2019. One million naira was demanded for his release (Anonymous, 2019; Shield Newspaper, December, 9). Also, on December 4, 2020, the Bank Manager of United Bank of Africa (UBA) was abducted in front of his house along Nelson Mandela road, in the evening. An undisclosed millions of naira according to source was paid (Akpan, 2020).

Bayelsa State: On February 2O06, militants in the Niger Delta first abducted a few oil workers, ostensibly to draw global attention to their dire situation in the oil-rich Niger Delta area of the country and the victims were mostly foreigners (Ekpe, 2009). Dode (2007) note that this first incident was carried out by the youths of Kou Kingdom in Bilabiri community, in the Ekeremor Local Government Area of Bayelsa State. The victims comprised Britons, Canadians and Americans, whose names were given as Texas Richards, Phil Morris, Au Wallace, Paul Sheppard, and John Steward, Lan Metocolf and peter Verrnulen. Still in Bayelsa State. On the 12th of January 2024 Bayelsa State Police Command have arrested four suspects allegedly involved in the kidnap of a 40-year-old businesswoman in the state, (Inyang 2019).

Confirming the arrest, the Commissioner of Police, Alonyenu Idu, said the victim was abducted at Opolo community in the Yenagoa Local Government Area. He said the four suspects included the wife of the alleged mastermind of the lady’s abduction.

He also linked the youth unrest in Biogbolo-Epie in the same Yenagoa LGA to the disorderly conduct of some suspects believed to be involved in the kidnap of the businesswoman.

on March 4, 2009, unknown gunmen abducted a Lebanese worker known as David in the hitherto safe koluma Okpokuma Local Government Area of Bayelsa State. David is a member of the Elite Construction Company handling the Polaku-Sabagia road construction project of the Niger Delta Development commission (Lartey, 2009). Similarly, the quiet community of Tungbo in Sagbama Local Government Council, in Bayelsa State was thrown into confusion of Sunday, July 6, 2009, following the abduction of 74-year-old woman, Lydia Epiidi, by unknown gunmen. Her abduction came barely two days after the visit of the presidential implementation committee on amnesty to the state (Ebri & Etim, 2009).

Cross River State: In Cross River State, kidnappers on Monday, November 9, 2009, kidnapped Mrs. Victoria Ickeke Idiege Omang, second wife of a Cross River State House of Assembly member N100million offer was turned down for her release, as her abductors saw it as an “insult” and further insisted on collecting N150million ransom as earlier demanded (Una, 2009). Also, the kidnapping of an unidentified 15-year-old secondary school girl who was returning from school was another incidence in Cross River State. The kidnappers called on her parents to meet their conditions or risk her life (Inyang, 2009).

Delta State: in Delta State, on December 23, 2008, an 82 — year old pa Jacob Odivwi Edjesa was kidnapped by gunmen at his residence in Emonu-oregun, Ughelli Local Government Area of Delta State. The octogenarian was murdered by his abductors due to slow response by the Nigerian Police Force (Akinrefon, 2008). Also, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) abducted six foreign crew members from a chemical tanker “Siehern Peace”. This tanker was seized about 20 nautical miles from Escravos on Sunday July 6, 2009. The victims were Captain Yuriy Shastim (Russia), Chief Engineer. Vasvi Bondarkov (Russia),Engineer. Viktor Koshevoy (Russia), Cadet Banjit Singh Dhindsa (India), Arivando Galima and Tavares Rouirgo (Philippines) (Ebri & Etirn, 2009).

Edo State: In Edo State, the worrisome situation started in February, 2009. This was an incidence where a seven-year-old son of the Chairman of Ovia South-west Local Government Council of Edo State, Mr. Monday, Aighoaehi was abducted while he was being dropped t school. It was reliably gathered however, that the little boy was set free after ransom was paid to the kidnappers (Egbegbulem, 2009). Few days after this, another kidnapping took place in which the victim unfortunately ended up in the grave. The victim identified as the managing director of “God is Good Motors,” Mr. Edwin Ajaere was kidnapped and found dead few days later, after a N100million ransom was paid out of the N200rnillion demanded. His death was linked to fear of exposure by his cousin who was a part of the gang. The ugly incident was followed by the kidnap of the wife of Edo State Commissioner for works, Mr. Andrew Bayagbona, who was abducted in her residence in Benin City. A sum of Ni O0million ransom was demanded before her release (Ebegbulem, 2009).

Similarly, General Ademokhia was kidnapped in his farm by suspected Niger Delta militants. An undisclosed ransom was demanded for this release, which he invariably argued for not having such an amount. He spent two days in the hands of his abductors whom he later described as “very nice” people (Ebegbulem, 2009). Also unidentified gunmen abducted a Benin-based transporter, Mr. Monday Osayande, the managing Director of Big Joe Motors in Benin City. Osayande pledged to offer the sum of Nl5millon for his release, but his kidnappers refused, and as well demanded for N100million ransom (Osarogiagbon, 2009). Nevertheless, a lecturer of the Federal Polytechnic Auchi was abducted and a ransom of five million naira was demanded by his abductors who are believed to be students of his institution (Inyang, 2009). Again on Saturday, June 13, 2009, kidnappers abducted a branch manager of alone of the old generation banks on mission road, Benin, Benin City. The seizure of the bank manager came on the heels of the abduction and release of a member of staff of the University of Benin, Mrs. Eremeh, by gunmen. It was learnt that Erameh, a departmental secretary in the School of Dentistry, was abducted while she was taking her children to school on Monday, June 8, 2009.

According to the source, the gunmen who abducted the woman did not take away the children, unlike the members of the gang who abducted a medical doctor and his three children at Auchi. A sum of N10million ransom payment was demanded from the husband of Erameh for her release (Nwankwo, Aborisade & Oni, 2009).

Gunmen also kidnapped a former Chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association in Benin, Mr. Solomon Odiase, and the parents of the Chairman of Ovia North-east Local Government Area of Edo State, Mr. Faustian Ovienrioba. Sources claimed that Odiase was abducted on his way to Iwu Ovia North-east L.G.A., on Saturday evening, September 26, 2009, while the parents of the Council Chairman were kidnapped at Emah, on Monday, September 28, 2009 in the morning. No ransom was made for the parents of the Council chairman as at when report was filed in, but in the case of Odiase, N100million was demanded for his release (Fabiyi, Soriwei & Olatunji, 2009). Also, a veterinary doctor from the Ministry of Agriculture who was meant to represent the Minister of Agriculture, Dr. Sayyadi Ruma, at the annual conference of the pharmaceutical society of Nigeria, was abducted by unknown gunmen. A sum of N20million ransom was demanded from the doctor for his release (Anonymous, 2009; Punch Newspaper, November, 11).

In the first week of June 2024, six South Korean oil workers were kidnapped in Caw throne Channel located near Degema, Bonny and Akukutoru Local Government Areas of Rivers State. In the course of taking these hostages, five military personnel were killed in the raid and two policemen injured. The movement for the Ernancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) claimed responsibility for that attack. These abducted expatriate oil workers were members of staff of shell, their names were given as H.D. Kwom, A. Park, S.B. Kim, O.K. Kim and H.D. Kimi (Dode 2007, cited this view from the editorial of dailysun Newspaper, June 9, 2006).

However, on July 25, 2008, five Russians were abducted by suspected pirates from a marine carrier (Herkules) with registration number 7523192 and call sign, DSAS. The vessel was on chatter by Saipen Nigeria Limited, a subsidiary of EM Group, to their operational field at Akpo oil when it was captured 19 nautical miles from the shores of Bonny. Similarly, 2 hours later, eight expatriates from Global Gas Company, one of the gas servicing companies operating at Bonny Island were abducted by six heavily armed me in the early hours of July 26, 2008. These expatiates included: two Russians, five Latvians and one Lithuanian. The armed men invaded an LPG tanker and shot two civilians before abducting the expatriates (Isine, 2008).

Similarly the Nigerian footballer, Joseph Yobo, had put in a large chunk of his foreign earnings before his elder brother was set free by dare devil kidnappers who had trailed him from a night club to his home in Port Harcourt (Inyang, 2009).

On Tuesday, 8th March 2010, at about 0840 hours, ten-armed men dressed in military camouflage invaded road bridge construction site of Macro Engineering Nig. Ltd at Umuaturu, Etche, shot and killed one Sgt Benedict Ajoi attached to 6 PMF Maiduguri, and kidnapped four expatriates: Mr. Miland (Lebabese), Mr. Farid, Mr.’ Right and Mr. Raymond (Syrian) to an unknown destination. A N50,000,000 ransom was said to have been demanded for their release.

     On Sunday, 5th August 2010, at about 0300 hours, some armed men attacked on Dr. Alexander Okopho with Miss Evelyn Gilbert While he was driving his blue colored Pathfinder jeep, along NTA Road, by Mgbuoba Market, shot him and kidnapped the said Miss Gilbert to an unknown destination.

On Monday, 24th January 2011 at about 21:00 hours, one Chidube Godwin Ibeakolam was kidnapped by four-armed men along Mbano Camp Oyigbo to an/unknown destination.

On Saturday, 5th March 2011 at about 22.30 hours, one Miss Stella and Miss Stella Ogbungba were kidnapped by Hoodlums along Rumoulogwu, Rumualogu Port Harcourt.

  On Monday 21St March 2011, at about 0025 hours, a gang of three-armed men kidnapped one Benedict Kinaka and Gabriel Marcus, brother of who were members of staff of Rivers State Ministry of Transport While driving along Woji road in Port Harcourt.

On Monday 5th March 2012, at about 07:30 hours, one Miss Ma Kaii a student of the University of Port Harcourt was kidnapped by a gang of armed men operating with a white care at Ogbonda estate along Artillery.

On Thursday 8th March 2012, at about 01:40 hours, one Mrs. Ijeorna Olugu Udeh was kidnapped by armed men together with her ash colored pathfinder Jeep with Reg. no. CQ 408 AAA along NTA road. On Thursday 22 March 2012 at about 20:00 hours, one Mrs. Princess Seikibo and her friend were kidnapped by four-armed men in her Hummer Jeep along Obiri-Ikwerre.

 Types of Kidnapping

Kidnapping can be categorized into three (3) major typologies. Walsh and Adrian, (1983) identified types of kidnapping based on the motives behind the incidence. These are

  • Politically-motivated Kidnapping
  • Economic/commercial kidnapping
  • Kidnapping for popularity.
  • Hostage Situation
  • Miscellaneous Kidnapping
  • Kidnapping for Robbery
  • Kidnapping for Murder (or other non-sexual assault)
  • White Slavery
  • Child Stealing
  • Ransom Skyjacking
  • Romantic Kidnapping
  • Classic Ransom
  • Kidnapping for rape or sexual assault.

Politically-Motivated Kidnapping: According to Ujumadu (2009), politically motivated kidnapping is the most dangerous type of kidnapping. This is because it encompasses every other type of kidnappings. i.e. the economic/commercial and popularity-seeking kidnappings. Walsh and Adrian (1983) noted that revolutionary groups seeking publicity initiated politically-motivated kidnapping in the late 1960s and early 1970s. They also used this form of kidnapping to seek the release of imprisoned guerrillas from hail in addition to ransom payments. According to them, such incidents, involved the kidnapping of the U.S., German and Swiss Ambassadors in 1969 and 1970 respectively; the cases of Signor Aldo Moro in 1978 and U.s. General Dozier in 1982 are included. Jerome (2009) described these types of kidnappers as political activists who make political demands exchange for the release of their captives.

In Nigeria, the incidence of kidnapping in 2003 and 2009 respectively reflected the political motives behind it, these were the kidnap cases of the former Anambra State Governor, Dr. Chris Ngige in 2002, and that of the father of the former Central Bank Governor, Pa Simeon Soludo (Ujurnadu, 2009). This type of kidnapping as earlier noted has been revenge or cruelty such as the desire to inflict involuntary servitude on the victim, to cause pain and grieve to victims loved ones or to commit some further crime against the victim (Walsh & Adrian, 1983).

Oraetoka (2009) argued that most of the kidnapping in Nigeria, especially in the South- east are politically motivated. Following his report, the South-East leader’s summit on kidnapping lends credence to the politically motivated theory of kidnapping in the East. These submit brought to fore, that elites have come to realize that kidnappings and associated crimes in the region were politically motivated, not criminally induced as erroneously thought before now. Oraetoka further acknowledges that, in Anambra, Akwa Iborn, Ondo States and the likes, most of the kidnappings are politically motivated. Those in government are responsible for it. A clear example was the crisis between PDP and Labour Party on June 15, 2009 in Ondo State over the abduction of a commissioner’s wife for which N10rnillion was demanded as ransom. Nwosu (2009) added to it that, in Nigeria, especially in the South – East, majority of people kidnapped are politicians. Politicians use kidnapping to settle scores with their political rivals.

Economic/Commercial Kidnapping: As earlier noted, Walsh and Adrian (1983), observed that, the over-whelming i.e. 90% majority of modern kidnapping include criminal gain. The situation in Nigeria belongs to this category. Most of these crimes are committed by criminal gangs seeking to make a fortune by collecting ransoms for, the release of their victims, this type of kidnapping for extortion occurred in the U.S.A in the 1920s and the 1930s. Kidnapping of the U.S. Charles Flyer Limburg baby boy was a clear example of economic/commercial kidnapping. Another form of kidnapping that falls within this category is the abduction and sale of women for prostitution, or concubines.

In Nigeria, this type of kidnapping is what is obtainable today. As earlier noted, the former Inspector General of Police, Sir Mike Okiro analyzed that, most kidnapping in the country are used as a source of raising funds, while over $200,000 is usually requested as money per head. To him, kidnappers and hostage Lakers got Nl5million ransom (about 100million naira) between 2006 and 2009 Kyrian, 2009) Uwake (2009) observed that this type of kidnapping is prevalent specially in the South-Eastern part of Nigeria and is gradually becoming very popular in the south – south region. Jerome (2009) viewed people who get involved in this type of kidnapping as criminal gangs especially in the Niger Delta region who align with the deploy the cover of militant activities to press home their immediate goals of financial reward. Ujumadu (2009) opined that though there had been cases of economic/commercial type of kidnapping it has reduced drastically and the most dangerous type is the one sponsored by politicians. This fact is prevalent in Anambra State of Nigeria.

Popularity-Seeking Kidnapping: Cases where certain groups of terrorists’ kidnaps and make it known to the public, that they are responsible for the act, falls within this category. Walsh and Adrian (1983) identified these crops of kidnappers as revolutionary groups, seeking publicity. They use their prowess to make forceful demands from those in authority. The U.S. German and Swiss Ambassadors who were kidnapped by Brazilian terrorists for the release of imprisoned guerrillas in 1969 and 1970 respectively were a typical example of popularity-seeking kidnapping. These kidnappers, in the cause of agitating for their needs, use hostage-taking to hasten the rapid response to their demands. By this, they make themselves popular. This is the situation in the Niger Delta. The militants most times kidnapped foreign expatriate to ostensibly draw government’s attention to their demands and afterward make public that they are the ones responsible for the act. An example of this, is the case of the first incidence of kidnapping in the South-South region of Nigeria where the group, movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Kidnapped six oil expatriates to draw government’s attention to the plight of the region and thereafter claimed responsibility for the menace (Dode, 2007). These and many more incidents in the region made them popular.

The Nigeria Constitution and Efforts to Curb Kidnapping

In Nigeria, the anti-kidnapping law presently prescribes a penalty of 10years imprisonment for kidnappers; some states have come up with even more stringent laws, ranging from Ife imprisonment to death penalty. But the assessment of this constitutional provision reflects laxity in the implementation process. Not one reported case of kidnapping has been successfully prosecuted so far to serve as deterrent to others and as well promote the constitutional provision (Ekpe, 2009).

Rivers State was reported to be the first state to pass a law, making kidnapping a capital offence in Nigeria (Akwa, 2009). Since them other states like Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo have followed suit, with Ondo State proposing a bill awaiting implementation against the act (Inyang, 2009) Also on subsequent occasions, the National Assembly proposed a bill titled “A bill for an Act of Prohibit Kidnapping, Hostage-Taking, and Prescribes Punishment for its Contravention and other Matters Relating Thereto” (Ogbodo, 2009:6). This event was followed by invitation of the former Minister of Defense, Major Gen. Godwin Abbe and his Interior. Minister Counterpart, Dr. Shettima Mustapha as well as the National Security Adviser, Major Gen. Sarki Muktar, the former Inspector General of Police (IGP), Mr. Mike Okiro, and former Director General of the State Security Services (SSS) Mr Afakriya Gadzama To propose possible ways to tackle kidnapping in the country (Ughebe & Jimoh, 2009).

Despite these steps towards making kidnapping a capital offence that attracts “life imprisonment” and “death penalty”, the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), has urged the governments to exercise caution in their bid to impose death penalty on anybody convicted of kidnapping, and states which have passed the bill already should abolish it and adopt a middle course in the fight against kidnapping. This is because, any proposal on death penalty as punishment would portray Nigeria as backward and retrogressive in view of the global trend, which favours the abolition of death sentence as witnessed in many countries (Ughebe & Jimoh, 2009).

Some States like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Enugu, Abia, etc, have sealed down the operational hours of motorcyclists in their state, some have even gone far to stop their operations totally to stem down the spate of kidnapping. Several vehicles have been bought for the security agencies especially the police; their operational facilities have also enhanced with a lot of money pumped into the agency to facilitate their activities against kidnappers (Ujumadi, 2009; Anonymous 2009, Community Pulse Newspaper, October, 2022). The Government in the Rivers State of Nigeria has also set-up a special Anti-kidnapping squad. It was an elite squad that received training in counterterrorism. As their Akwa Ibom counterpart, the team has been specially equipped to enable them combat crime of kidnapping in the state. Large quantities of bullet proof vests and other accessories were provided to make their work safer and more efficient (David, 2009). On several occasions, governments have been pledging fat sum of money for anybody that gives information that leads to the arrest of kidnappers.

The security agencies have also risen to the task. Several security summits, involving the Military, Police and other Para-military agencies are always organized within the Federal and State levels of government to check the menace (Udejah, Njokwu, Nzeagwu, Ogugbuaja & Aliu 2009). One of such meetings was that of the police held on Tuesday, September, 29, 2009. The former Inspector General of Police, Mr. Ogbonna Onovo, summoned all officers of the Nigeria Police Force from the rank of commissioner and above to an emergency meeting, following the rising cases of violent crimes and kidnapping in some parts of the country. They council meeting came six days after Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, late president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, pronounced insecurity as the greatest challenge facing his administration (Fabiyi, Soriwei & Olatunji, 2009).

Following the upsurge of kidnapping in the Niger Delta, the French Ambassador to Nigeria, Jean Micheal Durnoud, declared his country’s readiness to work with the federal government to check insecurity in the region. He also stated that his country was set to activate the ministry assistance provision in the Memorandum of Understanding reached between the two countries. According to him, the Special Forces have the necessary experiences of maneuvering the mangrove areas such as those in the Niger Delta (Ogbodo, 2009).

METHODOLOGY

Baridam, (2001:51) posits that research design is the framework or plan that is used as a guide in collecting and analyzing the data for a study. This study adopted the descriptive research design and requires the quasi-experimental design because the elements of the research interest are not under the researcher’s control. Thus, the survey method was adopted because it investigates a chosen proportion of a particular population at a particular point in time.

The population of the study will be generally composed of the total population in the nine (9) state of the Niger delta.

The study population is 400 respondents drawn from nine (9) state in the Niger delta. Comprising adult respondents aged 18 to 70 in six selected states of the Niger delta. The decision was justified since the individuals were best suited to give relevant information on this study subject matter and going by reports, these states were seen as flash points in the Niger delta,

To select samples for this study, the simple random sampling technique, as well as the stratified random sampling technique, was adopted since the population of the study consists of sub-groups; simple random sampling and stratified random sampling becomes necessary here. This ensured that an equal representation and chance is given to each stratum. Thus, this technique ensures an unbiased selection of samples in stratum or sub-groups. In doing this, we will identify and select the following states showing the 2006 population figures;

Rivers 7,476,800

Bayelsa 2,537,400

Delta    5,636,100

Edo      4,777,000

Ondo    5,316,600

Abia .4,143,100.

Total 29,887,000

Thus, this will represent our stratum from which the 400 sample population would be purposively drawn for this study.

The interview method was adopted where respondents could not give direct information on the questionnaire due to the problem of Illiteracy. In this case, tape recorders were put to use and the questions in questionnaire translated into Pidgin English and thereafter administered on those who could not read and write.

At the completion of the data collection, all responses were treated in figure tables. This helped to show briefly the trend of the data and the related variables.

The conventional means of discussion and consultation with experts in the general field of Social Sciences was used to validate our data. Such instruments are to be confirmed through discussion and consultation with experts in the field of Peace and Conflict Studies, Criminology and Security Studies, senior colleagues and others considered as experts in the field of study. From this, we come up with the final product for harmonization of various suggestions and views raised during the constructive stage.

Statistics of kidnap cases in Niger Delta

YearNumber of recorded kidnap cases
20074,980
20084680
200910749
20106051
20115554
20131288
20143137
20159416
201615664
20178937
20183534
20192895
20204471
20215612
20224508
20233647

Simple bar chart on number of recorded kidnap cases.

Text Box: Number of recorded kidnap cases
10  

 

From the above two tables, there is clear evidence that kidnapping cases in niger delta began to rise upward from 2013 with several 25 recorded cases. From 2014 the number increased geometrically to 49 and 73 in 2015. From the analysis of the above tables, it shows that the crime of kidnapping has entrenched its stem in Imo State because of its economic and political advantages which affects tremendously the socio-economic development of the state.

Rivers State: In the first week of June 2006, six South Korean oil workers were kidnapped in Caw throne Channel located near Degema, Bonny and Akukutoru Local Government Areas of Rivers State. While taking these hostages, five military personnel were killed in the raid and two policemen injured. The movement for the Ernancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) claimed responsibility for that attack. These abducted expatriate oil workers were members of staff of shell, their names were given as H.D. Kwom, A. Park, S.B. Kim, O.K. Kim and H.D. Kimi (Dode 2007, cited this view from the editorial of daily sun Newspaper, June 9, 2006).

However, on July 25, 2008, five Russians were abducted by suspected pirates from a marine carrier (Herkules) with registration number 7523192 and call sign, DSAS. The vessel was on chatter by Saipen Nigeria Limited, a subsidiary of EM Group, to their operational field at Akpo oil when it was captured 19 nautical miles from the shores of Bonny. Similarly, 2 hours later, eight expatriates from Global Gas Company, one of the gas servicing companies operating at Bonny Island were abducted by six heavily armed me in the early hours of July 26, 2008. These expatiates included: two Russians, five Latvians and one Lithuanian. The armed men invaded an LPG tanker and shot two civilians before abducting the expatriates (Isine, 2008).

On Monday, 15 of January, 2009 unknown gunmen abducted a renowned author and educationist, Captain Elechi Amadi, at his home in Port Harcourt, Rivers State. He was released the following day with the demand of N300million as ransom (Ebri & Etim, 2009). On separate occasions on Tuesday, February 3, 2009, unidentified gunmen abducted Mrs. Gladys Iniette Daukoro, Wife to the Former Minister of State for Energy, Edmund Daukoru and Dr. Elkaya Igom, commissioner for works and Estate with Rivers state Independent Electoral Commission (RSIEC). The abductors demanded the pull-out of Joint Military Task Force (JTF) from Rivers State and the entire Niger Delta region before their release (Obayuwana & Etirn, 2009). Meanwhile Ebiri and Etim (2009) report that, before these incident no fewer than five persons were kidnapped in Rivers State. One of these people was a senior official of Agip Oil Company, Mr. Charles W. James, whose abductors demanded a sum of five million naira for his release. Similarly, the Nigerian footballer, Joseph Yobo, had put in a large chunk of his foreign earnings before his elder brother was set free by dare devil kidnappers who had trailed him from a night club to his home in Port Harcourt (Inyang, 2009).

    On Friday 2 December 2011, at about 07:30 hours, a gang of armed men kidnapped one Mr. G.S.C. Onyeche, a Director in the Rivers State Ministry of Information, along Okra Market Road, Oyigbo to an unknown destination.

On Thursday 12th January 2012, at about 02: 08 hours, a gang of eight-armed men invaded the residence of one Mr. Agolia Aboko, Vice Chairman, PDP, Rivers State at Rukpakulushi New Layout, robbed him of his valuables and kidnapped his 13-year-old child, Isaac Aboko and fled to an unknown destination.

On Wednesday l8 January 2012, at about 21:30 hours, a gang of hoodlums kidnapped one Pastor. Peter Abanimi along Igbo-Etche road, Umuebulu. His vehicle was abandoned at the scene of the crime and was later recovered by men of the Nigeria police.

CONCLUSION

Nowadays, people are kidnapped on a daily basis for various reasons, such as economic, political, and personal differences. Some of the victims are killed or maimed. The article calls for the government at various levels to intensify awareness campaigns on the evils as well as punishment for kidnapping. Additionally, the enabling laws on kidnapping should be increased. The punishment for kidnapping should be as grave as that for murder and other felonious offences to further instill fear in would-be kidnappers. Finally, citizens should be encouraged to report any suspected incidence or kidnap attempt to security agencies without delay. On the other hand, more security personnel should be deployed to the various communities in the Niger Delta with better arms.

REFERENCE

Aborisade, S., Affe, M. and Obasola, K. (2009). Kidnap Lagos Hous Minority Leader Found in Oyo. The punch, May 28,P.7.

Akpan, N.S (2010). kidnapping in Nigeria’s Niger Delta: An Exploratory Study Journal for Social Science 21(1): 33-42

Anonymous, (2009). Investigation into Kidnap of Rescued Uniuyo Student in Progress-Police. The shield, December 9, P.7.

Inyang, J.D and Abraham, U.E (2013). The social problem of kidnapping and its Implications on the socio-economic development of Nigeria: A study of Uyo metropolis. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences.

Merton, R. (1938). “Social Structure and Anomie “, American Sociological Review 3 (October, 193 8):672-682.

National Population Commission (2006). Census. Imo State Office (Federal Secretariat Complex, Owerri).

Nwankwo, C., Aborisade, S. and Oni, A. (2009). MEND Declares War on kidnappers. The punch, January 5, p.7.

Nwaorah, N. (2009). Are Kidnappers Worst Criminals? Vanguard, March 29, p.14.

Obayuwana, O., Etirn, W. and Akpan, A. (2009). Gunmen Kidnap Daukoru’s Wife, Rivers Commisioner. Nigeria, France Align Against Insecurity. Militants Cameroon’s Gendarmes in Arms Build-Up. The Guardian, February 5, PP.1-2.

Okolo, G.U. (2002). Social Work: An Introductory Analysis Calabar: University of Calabar, pp.85-87.

Oyedele, A and Addeh, E. (2009). Kidnappers Release LG Bosses, Seize Wives, Lawmakers Denies Promising to pay Ransom. The Punch, August 10, P.10.

Shaw, C.R, and McKay, H. (1942). “Juvenile Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Delinquency and Urban Areas”

Soyombo, O. (2009) Sociology and Crime Control: That we May Live in Peace. The Guardian, September L7,pp.5 6-72.

Daily writing prompt
How can you build a regular fitness routine?

Effects of Pre-Reading Activities on Senior Secondary Students’ Achievement in Reading Comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria

Citation

Musa, D. D., Jangebe, S. M., Muopshin, J., Muopshin, J., & Yabo, N. U. (2026). Effects of Pre-Reading Activities on Senior Secondary Students’ Achievement in Reading Comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria. International Journal of Research, 13(4), 279–292. https://doi.org/10.26643/ijr/edupub/23

Danjuma Dogara Musa*, Salisu Muhammad Jangebe, Jocelyn Muopshin, Nafisat Umar Yabo.

ddmusadagaske@gmail.com

Department of Language Education, Federal College of Education (Technical) Gusau, Zamfara State, Nigeria

Abstract: 

The present study examined the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-Central which comprises Plateau, Benue, Niger, Kwara, Kogi and Nasarawa states. The study adopted the quasi-experimental research design. Specifically, the pre-test post-test non-equivalent comparison group design.  The sample size of the study consisted of 103 senior secondary students (SS2) The sample was drawn using simple random and purposive sampling techniques. Reading Comprehension Achievement Test (RCAT). was used to gather data. The Reading Comprehension Achievement Test (RCAT) measured the two reading skills namely the literal and inferential comprehension. The data collected for the study were organized and interpreted using descriptive and inferential statistics. The research questions one to two were answered using the mean and standard deviation. Hypotheses one to two were tested using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The findings showed that pre-reading activities motivate and sustain students’ interest in the actual reading activity. They also activate the building of related information in such a way that new information is easily assimilated into learners’ existing fields of knowledge. Though pre-reading activities such as brainstorming, use of picture and predicting play a critical role in the reading comprehension classroom, the study revealed that a significant number of teachers do not use them. The few who do, neither use a variety of them nor use them regularly. The study recommends that curriculum developers and implementers should incorporate appropriate and regular pre-reading activities for assigned texts in the reading comprehension classroom.  

Keywords: reading, pre-reading activities, reading comprehension, achievements. 

 

Introduction 

Reading comprehension refers to the ability to understand information presented in written form. It is a process of making predictions and confirming predictions. The ability to read and understand is, therefore, essential for academic learning because it is the foundation for success in all academic subjects. It is the essence and goal of reading, since the purpose of all reading is to gather meaning from the printed page. The ultimate goal of reading is for extraction of meaning from what the reader is able to read. It is the ability to read text, process it and understand its meaning.

 

Background and Statement of the Problem 

Reading comprehension is the ability to read, internalize, understand, and interact with the text you are reading. It involves critical thinking and deductive reasoning to make meaning of an entire piece of writing. Reading comprehension skills are essential for students, professionals, and anyone who wants to read for pleasure or information. It’s not just about phonological awareness and reading words aloud; it encapsulates language skills such as grammar (syntax), vocabulary, and semantics, to understand the meaning of texts. You make inferences and form an opinion about the read text. Good reading comprehension involves creating images of the words you just read. Readers make connections to previous knowledge as they enjoy the text. They can comfortably answer comprehension questions and summarize parts of the writing or the entire text.

Without reading, ideas and facts stored up in printed materials and electronic sources cannot be tapped. In view of this, reading is regarded indispensable in education as it promotes cognitive growth (Beard, 2021). 

Seeing the important role that English language plays as medium of communication in education in Nigeria, the ability to read and understand texts is central. Reading is one of the four basic skills of English language namely listening, speaking, reading and writing. It is the primary means through which students gain information across various subjects and discipline. It makes students understand and interpret text which helps to enhance their critical thinking. Reading exposes one to new ideas, culture, and perspective and increases one’s understanding of the world (Nwodo, 2019).

Researchers have consistently shown that both teachers and students face numerous challenges in teaching and learning reading comprehension. Many English language teachers in secondary schools lack specialized training in teaching reading strategies. According to Ajide (2020), many teachers rely on outdated methods that focus on literal comprehension and vocabulary drills rather than teaching inferential or evaluative reading skills. Teachers often adopt the read and answer method without guiding students through active reading strategies. Lack of familiarity with scaffolding techniques like prediction, vocabulary pre-teaching, pre-questioning, summarizing and previewing has effect on the students’ performance and achievement. The conventional method

employed by the teachers does not allow the students to employ various skills of reading that will aid their comprehension of the literal, inferential and critical among other skills. 

In order to address the challenges of students’ achievement in reading comprehension, the following skills need to be taught systematically and intentionally which are literal comprehension and inferential comprehension.  

Literal reading comprehension is an understanding of information and facts that are directly stated in the text. This ability is considered the first and most basic level of comprehending a text. The literal level is the most fundamental part of reading. Without understanding of literal meaning, it will be difficult for the students to answer questions on a passage that requires literal understanding. Inferential reading is the ability to realize the hidden concepts and the unstated relationship between the lines in a text. It is concerned with the ability of students to understand meaning that is not explicitly stated or explained in the text. Critical reading is a process of analysing, interpreting and sometimes evaluating. When students read critically, they use critical thinking skills to question the text. Critical reading helps the reader to have a deep understanding of the passage. It helps the reader to seek knowledge, develop ideas and to reflect on the objectives of the passage. 

Most of the studies conducted concentrated on EFL classroom environments and at the tertiary, pre-tertiary, and preschool levels. There exists little current literature on the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension. This study, therefore, purposed tofind out the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria.

Aim and Objectives 

The aim of this study was to ascertain the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria.

RQ1: What is the difference in literal comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools?

 RQ2: What is the difference in inferential comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools?

Scope of the Study 

This research work was restricted to the effect of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-central Nigeria. Pre-reading activities such as brainstorming, pre-questioning, predicting were used to teach reading comprehension to senior secondary students. The variables of interest as contained in the research questions were the ability to answer literal comprehension questions, and identify inferential ideas.  

Theoretical Framework

Schema theory was used for the study. The theory was first proposed by Immanuel Kant which was later developed by Sir Frederic Bartle who became the propounder of the theory in 1932 who posits that people’s understanding and remembrance of events is shaped by their expectations or prior knowledge, and that the prior knowledge is presented mentally in some sorts of schematic structures. The profounder observes that when people are asked to repeat a story from memory, they often fill in details which are not included in the original but related to what they have already known based on their cultural background. The proponent identifies means on how to guide the reader in the actual reading comprehension as a process.

 

Literature Review 

Reading comprehension is one of the pillars of the act of reading (Lawal, 2019 Adele, 2021 Asemota, 2018) Obika, 2020)). When a person reads a text he engages in a complex array of cognitive processes. The reader is simultaneously using his awareness and understanding of phonemes, phonics and ability to comprehend or construct meaning from the text. This last component of the act of reading is reading comprehension. It is the most difficult and most important of the three. There are elements that make up the process of reading comprehension. In order to understand a text, the reader must be able to comprehend the vocabulary used in the piece of writing. Reading comprehension is one of the necessary subjects in the primary and secondary levels of education. The readers are expected to drive the real information incorporated by the author, accurately. The fluency and accuracy skills motivate

the children and create the tendency to read more. This provides the basis for the use of pre-reading activities as a strategy to teach reading comprehension to senior secondary students.

Reading comprehension is therefore the purpose of reading and remains an essential part of all learning. Comprehension can be conceptualized as the extraction of relevant knowledge from texts and consists of three elements; the reader, the text, and the purpose of reading. It is the interaction between text, readers, and purpose as well as the use of reading comprehension strategies that increase comprehension. Tompkins (2011) consequently defines reading comprehension as the level of understanding of a text/message. Reading comprehension is the interaction between the written words and the knowledge they elicit from sources outside the text or message.  Thus, reading comprehension is a cognitive process that is meant for decoding the meaning embedded in a text in order to understand what the author is communicating to their audience through the message. Without comprehension, reading is reduced to symbols that do not provide the reader with any information, and again, without comprehension, reading is nothing more than tracking symbols on a page with the readers’ eyes and sounding them out (Mahmoud, 2015).  

 

Effects of Pre-Reading Activities on Students ’Reading Comprehension  

Pre-reading activities are meant to give students the background knowledge they need in order to better understand a text when they interact with it. They are the activities that pupils are taken through to enable them to acquire skills for actual reading. Therefore, they are designed to prepare beginners for formal reading. Johnson (2010) states that pre-reading activities are a series of activities pupils are exposed to, as a way of preparing them for formal reading. For this reason, they can be viewed as essential tasks that should be carried out to activate learners’ schema and avoid any failures in text comprehension. Pupils familiarize themselves with the subject, vocabulary, or challenging structures in the passage through the use of pre-reading activities. Pre-reading exercises are particularly useful in fostering a love for reading and in introducing important cultural ideas. According to Ping (2014), pre-reading activities are essential to pupils’ later applications in school activities. They are exercises that give pupils the chance to decide whether to read more of a text in order to discover more intriguing ideas from it (Mikatama, 2019), bring about success in pupils’ comprehension (Malikhatul, 2019), has key impacts on reading comprehension. 

Pre-reading activities are essential for giving students the fundamental knowledge they need about texts, piquing their interest in reading texts, and keeping them in a reading environment throughout their formal learning stage (Osei, 2016). According to Hasan (2011), students’ schemata can be triggered during the pre-reading phase before the real reading stage, and this can improve their comprehension of written material. It is clear that pre-reading activities are very important in the reading class and have a good impact on pupils. Pre-reading activities, according to (Villanueva, 2022), include a variety of games, comparative picture studies, and picture-storytelling exercises that are typically helpful in assisting children in developing the reading abilities necessary for formal reading. These activities are enabling activities which give young readers the thorough grounding they need to plan activities and understand the reading material (Kim & Quinn, 2013). In this view, pre-reading activities uncover and elicit prior knowledge, and the purpose(s) for reading, and develop a knowledge foundation required for dealing with the content and structure of the contents provided (Maingi, 2018).  

Pre-reading activities set up and strengthen students’ foundation for reading materials, demonstrating the critical function pre-reading activities have in strengthening students’ focus and attention on the reading materials they will be reading (Franceschini, 2013). Without a doubt, the activities allow the child to gradually test out his emotional self, calm himself through emotional expression in a range of reading situations, and more easily pick up pre-reading skills (Abdulai, 2014). Pre-reading activities have drawn a lot of attention as the cornerstone techniques for introducing children to reading and maintaining their interest in texts (Maingi, 2018) and by employing these activities, readers are better prepared for the reading activities when they are motivated to read the text, which is a result of pre-reading activities. Additionally, because of their increased confidence, children are better able to complete the activity without expending too much effort, and they are more eager to participate in it. Furthermore, pre-reading activities add excitement to the activity, give the students a reason to read, and give the teacher an opportunity to assess how well the text can be understood with the aid of the activities assigned before/after reading (Osei, 2016). Hence, by providing pre-reading activities, teachers can help learners become successful readers (Dickson, 2022). The application of the pre-reading technique is effective in improving reading comprehension of narrative text (Mujahidah & Ramli, 2019) and increases reading performance.

Pre-reading activities have positive effects on students’ performance in reading comprehension (Rondon & Tomitch, 2020; Asgar, 2016) and can have positive effects on all students whether high-level or low-level, and all learners can benefit from the techniques (Hashemi, 2016). They are motivational (Nahid &Asgar, 2016), and improve students’ comprehension of texts because pre-reading strategies activate students’ prior knowledge and facilitate L2 learners’ comprehension ability of the target text (Al Akremi (2016). Therefore, the wise use of pre-reading techniques is one primary step in ensuring efficient comprehension and a more successful reading (Febriantil. 2022). Based on the forgoing arguments and empirical evidence, the following hypotheses are stated:

H1: There is no significant difference in literal comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools H2: There is no significant difference in inferential comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools

Importance of Pre-Reading Activities to Students’ Achievement

Pre-reading activities are strategies or exercises designed to prepare students for engaging with a text. These activities offer several advantages, both in terms of enhancing comprehension and fostering interest. Here are the key benefits: 

It activates prior knowledge by helping the students connect their existing knowledge and experiences to the new text and makes the reading material more palatable and easier to understand. It Builds vocabulary: It introduces key terms and concepts before encountering them in the text and reduces the cognitive load during reading, allowing students to focus on comprehension. 

It establishes purpose by encouraging students to understand why they are reading the text and sets goals, such as identifying specific information, themes, or ideas. It Stimulates Interest by engaging students’ curiosity about the topic and makes them more motivated to read and explore the material.

It promotes predictive thinking in encouraging students to predict contents based on titles, headings, and visuals and develops critical thinking skills by making them actively anticipate what they will learn. It facilitates engagement: It activities like group discussions, brainstorming, or visual analysis, foster collaboration and creates a dynamic learning environment before reading. 

It reduces anxiety by familiarizing students with the text’s content or challenges this aspect can make it less intimidating and boosts confidence by preparing them for what lies ahead. It enhances comprehension: It prepares student to navigate the structure and ideas in the text and makes it easier to focus on deeper levels of understanding.  

 

Method and Procedure

 

Design, Population and Sample

The quasi-experimental research design was used in the current study. Specifically, the study adopted the pre-test post-test nonequivalent comparison group design. The population of this study was all SS2 students in public secondary schools in Karu Local Government Area in Nasarawa State. The population of all the secondary schools in Karu Local Government was one thousand nine hundred, ninety (1990) students. The sample schools for the study consisted of 103 students that were in SS2 at the time of the study in the designated schools.

Instrument

The Reading Comprehension Achievement Test (RCAT) was used to gather data for this study. The RCAT measured the two reading skills namely the literal skill, and inferential skill. The RCAT was adopted and adapted from SSCE English language 1 Examination of June 1992. 

 

Procedure

The pretest was administered for two days. Day one was for testing questions on literal comprehension while day two was used for testing questions on inferential comprehension. A comprehension passage was given and students were asked to answer five questions. 

 

Administration of the Treatment

Treatment was administered by the researcher in two experimental schools. Treatment consisted of reading comprehension achievement test. Students in the experimental group were taught using pre-reading activities while students in the control group were taught using normal school English lessons within the periods. Treatment lasted for the periods of 2 weeks which were delivered two times a week for 40 minutes, or a double period of 80 minutes.

 

Administration of Post-Test  

The researcher administered on the participants in both the experimental and control groups after the treatment. It was administered the same duration of time and day as the pre-test. The text items were as same as the pre-test as students were asked to use 30 minutes to answer the comprehension questions on the passage.  

 

Analyses

The research questions raised for this study were answered using the mean and standard deviation. By this, the significant difference between the experimental and control groups in the pre-test and post-test were determined.

Research Question One

What is the difference between the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups?

To determine the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of students in the experimental and control groups, mean and standard deviation were employed as presented in Table1.

Table 1: The Pre-test and Post-test Literal Comprehension Achievement Mean scores of SS II students in the Experimental and Control Groups

Group Pretest          Posttest  
 NMeanSDMean      SDMean Gain𝒙̅-Gain difference
Experimental  49  9.76  1.74  15.24       1.88              5.48    4.60
Control549.911.4810.69       1.060.88 

Table 1 shows the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in reading comprehension in the experimental and control groups. The experimental group obtained a pre-test mean score of 9.76   with a standard deviation of 1.74 and a post-test mean score of 15.24 with a standard deviation of 1.88, yielding a mean gain of 5.48 after exposure to pre-reading activities. The control group had a pre-test mean score of 9.91 with a standard deviation of 1.48 and post-test mean score of

10.69 with a standard deviation of 1.06, yielding a mean gain of 0.88 The result indicated that students in the experimental group had a higher mean gain score after exposure to pre-reading activities than those in the control group who were not given treatment. The mean gain difference was 4.60 in favour of the experimental group. This means that pre-reading activities did increase the students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

Research Question Two

What is the difference between the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups?

To determine the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of students in the experimental and control groups, mean and standard deviation were employed as presented in Table 2.

Table 2: The Pre-test and Post-test Inferential Comprehension Achievement Mean Scores of SS II Students in the Experimental and Control Groups

Group Pretest          Posttest  
 NMeanSDMean      SDMean Gain𝒙̅-Gain difference
Experimental  49  9.78  1.48  16.08       2.52              6.30    4.54
Control549.281.7611.04       0.731.76 

Table 2 shows the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups. The experimental group obtained a pre-test mean score of with 9.78 standard deviation of 1.48 and a post-test mean score of 16.08 with a standard deviation of 2.52, yielding a mean gain of 6.30 after exposure to pre-reading activities. The control group had a pre-test mean score of 9.28 with a standard deviation of 1.76 and post-test mean score of 11.04 with a standard deviation of 0.73, yielding a mean gain of 1.76 The result indicated that students in the experimental group had a higher mean gain score after exposure to pre-reading activities than those in the control group who were not given treatment. The mean gain difference was 4.54 in favour of the experimental group. This means that pre-reading activities did increase the students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

Hypotheses Hypothesis One

There is no significant difference between the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups.

Analysis of variance (ANCOVA) was employed in testing the null hypothesis on the pre-test and post-test literal achievement mean score of Secondary School Students in the experimental and control groups. This is presented in Table 3.  

Table 3: ANCOVA Result on Pretest and Posttest Literal Comprehension Achievement Mean Scores of SSII Students in the Experimental and Control Groups

SourceType II Sum of SquaresdfMean SquareFSig.Partial SquaredEta
Corrected Model728.256a2364.1281053.624.000.955 
Intercept53.294153.294154.210.000.607 
Achievement194.1501194.150561.783.000.849 
Group564.0021564.0021631.971.000.942 
Error34.560100.346    
Total17782.000103     
Corrected Total762.816102     

a. R Squared = .955 (Adjusted R Squared = .954)

The data were subjected to analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) having experimental and control groups to determine if a significant difference exists in the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SS II students in reading comprehension in the experimental and control groups. Table 3 shows that F (1, 100) = 1631.971, P < 0.05. Since the p-value of .000 is less than the 0.05 level of significance, the null hypothesis was rejected. This indicates that, there was a significant effect of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in the experimental group. The result further reveals an adjusted R squared value of .954 which means that 95.4 percent of the variation in the dependent variable which is students’ literal achievement is explained by variation in the treatment of pre-reading activities while the remaining is due to other factors not included in this study. Hence, we can say that pre-reading activities does improve students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

Hypothesis Two

There is no significant difference between the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups.

Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was employed in testing the null hypothesis on the pre-test and post-test mean scores inferential comprehension achievement of Secondary School Students in the experimental and control groups. This is presented in Table 4.  

Table 4: ANCOVA Result on Pretest and Posttest Inferential Comprehension Achievement Mean Scores of SSII Students in the Experimental and Control Groups

SourceType II Sum of Squares  dfMean SquareFSig. Partial SquaredEta
Corrected Model845.617a2422.808298.334.000 .856 
Intercept87.861187.86161.995.000 .383 
Achievement191.8761191.876135.388.000 .575 
Group536.7141536.714378.706.000 .791 
Error141.7231001.417     
Total19584.000103      
Corrected Total987.340102      

a. R Squared = .856 (Adjusted R Squared = .854)

The data were subjected to analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) having experimental and control groups to determine if a significant difference exists in the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SS II students in reading comprehension in the experimental and control groups. Table 4 shows that F (1, 100) = 378.706, P < 0.05. Since the p-value of .000 is less than the 0.05 level of significance, the null hypothesis was rejected. This indicates that, there was a significant effect of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in the experimental group. The result further reveals an adjusted R squared value of .854 which means that 85.4 percent of the variation in the dependent variable which is students’ inferential achievement is explained by variation in the treatment of pre-reading activities while the remaining is due to other factors not included in this study. Hence, we can say that pre-reading activities does improve students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

 

Discussion

The results from research question one revealed that literal comprehension skill of both control and experimental groups were mostly in the poor category at pretest. After treatment, however, the literal comprehension skill of the experimental group showed significant improvement in the literal comprehension skill of students in the control group. This finding is in consonance with Osei (2016), Nurdima (2018)), who found that pre-reading activities are essential for giving students the fundamental knowledge they need about texts, piquing their interest in reading texts, and keeping them in a reading environment throughout their formal learning stage. Results obtained from research question two showed that both control and experimental groups recorded low scores in inferential comprehension achievement test at pretest as both groups had high percentage of students in poor category. At posttest, the experimental group increased in inferential comprehension skills while the control group did not improve significantly. This finding supports the research of Paul and Christopher (2017) who found out that Inferential skill helps the students to realize the hidden concepts and the unstated relationship between the lines in a text and it is concerned with the ability of students to understand meaning that is not explicitly stated or explained in the text. Result from hypothesis one as presented on table 2 revealed that the experimental group improved in their literal comprehension scores after treatment unlike the control group which did not improve as indicated by the posttest. It means that pre-reading activities had effect on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in the experimental group than the control group. Finding from hypothesis two showed that the inferential comprehension achievement scores of the experimental group did significantly better than the control group after posttest when reading a text. Inferential comprehension is higher cognitive level of comprehension and it can only be attained when pre-reading activities are employed This view was corroborated by Naranjo (2021) who opined that; since inferential comprehension requires readers to read between the lines’ It is more challenging comprehension task. The results also agree with the views Agbevivi (2022) and Ramli, (2019) who agree that, comprehension strategies like prior knowledge for text content which are fundamental factors in gaining comprehension should be taught intentionally to learners.

Conclusion  

Pre-reading activity is the activity used to elicit students’ prior knowledge to the actual reading material. The activity is intended to provide students with required background knowledge that will be needed to have a better comprehension when they interact with a text. Pre-reading has to do with what a learner brings to the reading which can affect how he/she understands what he reads. Pre-reading activities is, therefore, an effective strategy of teaching reading comprehension because of its gains it yielded to students in the experimental group. This study has established the fact that pre-reading activities have significant effects on students’ reading comprehension achievement. When the right strategy and activity are employed to teach reading comprehension among students, the number of failures would be reduced drastically. Based on the significant gains recorded by the experimental group at posttest as compared to the control group whose posttest scores did not significantly improve, it is clear from the findings that pre-reading activities can have impact on the students’ reading comprehension achievement. Findings from the study also established that the gain scores which reflected on the experimental group was a result of the use of pre-reading activities.

References

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An Autoregressive Moving Average Model for Short-Term Prediction of Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes Among Farmers in Benue State

Citation

Agada, J., Kuhe, D. A., & Anthony, O. N. (2026). An Autoregressive Moving Average Model for Short-Term Prediction of Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes Among Farmers in Benue State. International Journal of Research, 13(4), 255–278. https://doi.org/10.26643/ijr/edupub/22Style

APA

John Agada1, David Adugh Kuhe 2 and Ojochegbe Noah Anthony 3*

1Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Rev, Fr. Moses Orshio Adasu University Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria

2Department of Statistics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria

3Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Rev, Fr. Moses Orshio Adasu University Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria

Corresponding Author: Email: davidkuhe@gmail.com; Tel: 2348064842229

ABSTRACT

This study employs an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model to forecast the short-term incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (Type 2 Diabetes) among farmers in Benue State, Nigeria. The data was collected from the Benue State Epidemiological Unit, Makurdi, and covered a 20-year period from January 2005 to June 2025. The study employed descriptive statistics and normality measures, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and ARMA (p,q) model as the principal analytical techniques and procedures used to examine the data. The descriptive statistics indicated moderate variability in diabetes cases over the years, while the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirmed the stationarity of the series in level. Model choice based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and Hannan–Quinn Criterion (HQC) identified the ARMA(3,3) model as the best fit for forecasting diabetic cases in the study area. The model’s high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.8905) and statistically significant parameters (p < 0.05) demonstrated its robustness and predictive accuracy. Diagnostic checks using autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation, and the Ljung–Box Q-statistics showed that the residuals behaved like white noise, indicating a well-specified model. Forecast evaluations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) confirmed that the model accurately good for predicting out-of-sample values. The forecast for July 2025 to June 2027 revealed a potential average of approximately 6,420 diabetes cases per month among farmers, with expected fluctuations over time. The study underscored the growing public health concern of diabetes among the farming population in Benue State and its implications for agricultural productivity and postharvest losses. The study concluded that predictive modeling can serve as a vital tool for health planners to design early intervention strategies, integrate health management with agricultural development, and enhance the overall well-being of rural farmers.

Keywords: Diabetes, ARIMA, Time Series Forecasting, Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes, Farmers, Benue State, Public Health, Postharvest Losses

1.0       INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus, often simply referred to as diabetes, is a group of metabolic disorders characterized by high blood sugar levels over a prolonged period. The two main types of diabetes are type-1 diabetes, which results from the body’s inability to produce insulin, and Type-2 diabetes develops when the body either becomes resistant to insulin or produces insufficient insulin to control blood sugar levels effectively. Diabetes mellitus is a multifaceted metabolic condition marked by high concentrations of glucose (sugar) in the bloodstream Glucose is a crucial source of energy for cells, and insulin, a hormone produced by the pancreas, plays a central role in regulating its uptake into cells. In diabetes mellitus, this regulation is disrupted, leading to persistent hyperglycemia (high blood sugar) (American Diabetes Association, 2022).

Diabetes mellitus is a significant public health concern worldwide, with its prevalence increasing steadily over the past few decades. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF, 2019), an estimated 537 million adults aged 20-79 years were living with diabetes globally in 2021 and this number is projected to rise to 783 million by 2045. The prevalence of diabetes varies by region, with higher rates observed in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in urban areas undergoing rapid socioeconomic development and lifestyle changes. (ADA, 2022).

In Nigeria, the prevalence is estimated at 7% and 11.35% in South-south zone. The Diabetes Association of Nigeria (DAN) reviewed that, mortality rate of diabetes from insufficient management far outweighs that of HIV/AIDs, Malaria and Cancer (Olamoyegun et al., 2024)

Diabetes mellitus is significantly Impacting farmers in Benue State with prevalence rate among yam farming population estimated at 24.9% and mortality rate of 8.61% and as led to reduced labor productivity, economic impact and health complications (Teran, A.D.. 2017)

Diabetes is associated with numerous complications that can affect nearly every organ system in the body. These complications includes Microvascular: Retinopathy (vision loss) neuropathy (nerve damage), nephropathy (kidney damage), and Microvascular: cardiovascular disease (such as heart attack and stroke), others are foot ulcers and amputations. The burden of diabetes-related complications is substantial, leading to increased medical costs, reduced quality of life, and higher risk of premature mortality (ADA, 2022).

Type-2 diabetes, also known as non-insulin dependent diabetes, is a long-term condition that affects how the body processes sugar (glucose), which is an important source of energy. In this condition, the body either becomes resistant to insulin, a hormone that helps move sugar into cells, or doesn’t produce enough insulin to keep blood sugar levels normal (Sun et al., 2021). Unlike type-1 diabetes, where the immune system attacks and destroys insulin-producing cells in the pancreas, type-2 diabetes usually develops slowly over time. While it was once mostly seen in adults, more children and teenagers are now being diagnosed, largely due to increasing obesity and less active lifestyles (Sun et al., 2021).

A major characteristic of type-2 diabetes is insulin resistance, which means the body’s cells don’t respond to insulin as they should. When this happens, the pancreas tries to make more insulin to help move sugar into the cells. However, over time, the pancreas may struggle to keep up with this increased demand. As a result, sugar starts to accumulate in the blood, causing high blood sugar levels (Cloete, 2022).

Several determinants contributes to the risk of developing type-2 diabetes, including obesity, particularly excess fat around the abdomen (central obesity), A sedentary lifestyle, unhealthy eating habits—like eating too many sugary and processed foods—having a family history of diabetes, getting older (especially after 45), and belonging to certain ethnic groups are all factors that can increase the risk of developing diabetes (ADA, 2022).

In Addition to insulin resistance, type-2 diabetes can also involve problems with the pancreas, the organ that makes insulin. Sometimes, the pancreas doesn’t produce enough insulin to keep blood sugar levels in check, making high blood sugar worse (Desai & Deshmukh, 2020).

Symptoms of type-2 diabetes often develop slowly and can include increased thirst, frequent urination, fatigue, blurred vision, slow wound healing, and repeated infections. In the early stages, some people may not notice any symptoms at all, which is why regular screenings are essential (IDF, 2019).

Treatment for type-2 diabetes aims to maintain blood sugar levels within a target range to prevent serious health problems and complications. This typically involves lifestyle modifications such as regular exercise, healthy eating habits (including portion control and selecting nutrient-rich foods), weight management, and monitoring blood sugar levels. (Desai & Deshmukh, 2020).

The management and treatment of type-2 diabetes can impose financial burdens on individuals, families, and healthcare systems. In regions where healthcare costs are primarily borne by the individual or are not adequately covered by insurance, the expenses associated with diabetes care can divert resources away from agricultural investments and productivity-enhancing measures. This can directly impact agricultural communities with reduced investment into agricultural produces, reduced income and crop loss thereby affecting their livelihood (Huang et al., 2016).

Diabetes Mellitus is diagnosed when certain blood sugar levels are met or exceeded. Specifically, a person may be diagnosed if their A1C is 6.5% or higher, which reflects average blood glucose over the past few months. Alternatively, if fasting blood sugar is 126 mg/dL or higher, or if a 2-hour blood sugar reading during an oral glucose tolerance test reaches 200 mg/dL or more, a diagnosis may be made. Additionally, if an individual has a random blood sugar of 200 mg/dL or higher along with symptoms like excessive thirst, frequent urination, or unexplained weight loss, they may also be diagnosed with diabetes (Jaeger et al., 2025).

Agricultural activities, like applying chemical fertilizers and pesticides, can have environmental consequences that can indirectly impact diabetes risk factors. For instance, exposure to chemicals such as glyphosate or organophosphates used in farming has been associated with a higher likelihood of developing metabolic disorders. Additionally, environmental factors such as air pollution and climate change may exacerbate diabetes risk factors and health outcomes, potentially affecting agricultural productivity and crop yields (whiting et al., 2011). Overall, while the direct impact of type-2 diabetes on agricultural productivity and postharvest losses may be limited, the interplay between diabetes, dietary patterns, healthcare access, and environmental factors can have broader implications for agricultural communities and food systems. Addressing the complex relationship between health, agriculture, and the environment requires a holistic approach that considers socioeconomic factors, public health interventions, and sustainable agricultural practices (Whiting et al., 2011).

Overall, while the direct impact of type-2 diabetes on agricultural productivity and postharvest losses may be limited, the interplay between diabetes, dietary patterns, healthcare access, and environmental factors can have broader implications for agricultural communities and food systems. Addressing the complex relationship between health, agriculture, and the environment requires a holistic approach that considers socioeconomic factors, public health interventions, and sustainable agricultural practices (Huang et al., 2016).

This study therefore attempts to extend the existing literature and contribute to the existing body of knowledge by modeling and forecasting non insulin dependent diabetes among farmers in Benue State using autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) time series model with more recent data.

2.0       MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1       Method of Data Collection

The data utilized in this research work are monthly secondary time series data on morbidity incidence of type-2 diabetes in Benue state for the period of January, 2005 June, 2025 making a total of 234 observations. The data was collected from Benue State Epidemiological unit, Makurdi. The data was transformed to natural logarithms using the following formula:

where  is the confirmed type-2 diabetes series observation indexed by time , while  is the natural logarithm. Hence forth  will be regarded as a series.

2.2 Methods of Data Analysis

Find below the statistical tools employed in the analysis of data in this work.

3.2.1 Descriptive statistics and normality measures

The mean of any given set of data can be computed as follows:

The sample standard deviation of any given set of data over a given period of time is computed using the formula:

where  is the sample mean,  is the sample size.

Jarque-Bera test is a normality test of whether a given sample data have the skewness and kurtosis similar to that of a normal distribution. The test was proposed by Jarque and Bera (1980, 1987) and test the null hypothesis that the series is normally distributed. Given any data set, the test statistic JB is defined as:

where  is the sample skewness denoted as:

and  is the sample kurtosis given below:

whereT is the total number of observations. The JB normality test checks the following pair of hypothesis:

and  (i.e.,  follows a normal distribution)

and  (i.e.,  does not follows a normal distribution).

The test rejects the null hypothesis if the p-value of the JB test statistic is less than  level of significance.

2.2.2 Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test

The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test helps to identify if a time series is stationary or has a unit root, indicating a persistent trend over time (Dickey and Fuller, 1979).

 It accounts for higher-order correlations by assuming the series follows an AR(p) process and incorporates lagged differences of the series into the regression to enhance the test’s precision.

.

where are optional exogenous regressors which may consist of constant, or a constant and trend, and are parameters to be estimated,β values arelagged difference terms and the are assumed to be white noise. The null and alternative hypotheses are written as:

                                                                                        (8)

and evaluated using the conventional ratio for

where  is the estimate of  and “the coefficient standard error is denoted as  

2.2.3 Portmanteau test

A Portmanteau test also called he Ljung-Box Q-statistic test is used to determine whether there is any remaining serial correlation or autocorrelation in the residuals of a time series. The test checks the following pairs of hypotheses:

 (all lags correlations are zero)

 (there is at least one lag with non-zero correlation). The test statistic is given by:

where

denotes the autocorrelation estimate of squared standardized residuals at  lags. T is the sample size, Q is the sample autocorrelation at lag k. We reject  if p-value is less than  level of significance (Ljung and Box, 1979).

2.3 Time Series Models Specification

To specify an ARIMA model which is the model framework use in this study, we first specify autoregressive (AR) model, moving average (MA) model, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model before specifying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. These models are specified as follows.

2.3.1 The autoregressive (AR) model

A stochastic time series process {} is an autoregressive process of order p, denoted AR() if it satisfied the difference equation

where  is a white noise and  are constants to be determined.

2.3.2 Moving average (MA) model

A time series {} which satisfies the difference equation

where  are fixed constants with  as white noise is called a moving average process of order q, denoted MA().

2.3.3 Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model

A stochastic time series process {} which results from a linear combination of autoregressive and moving average processes is called an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process of order p, q, denoted ARMA () if it satisfies the following difference equation:

where are fixed constants associated with the AR terms and  are fixed constants associated with the MA terms with  being a white noise. The stationarity of an ARMA () process is guaranteed if the roots of the polynomial

 lie outside the unit circle.

An ARMA () model is specified as:

 2.3.4 Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model

Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) or Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model in which differences have been taken are collectively called Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average or ARIMA models. A time series {} is said to follow an integrated autoregressive moving average model if the th difference  is a stationary ARMA process. If  follows an ARMA(p, q) model, we say that {} is an ARIMA (p, d, q) process. For practical purposes, we can usually take  or at most 2.

Consider then an ARIMA (p, 1, q) process, with , we have

In terms of the observed series,

)

2.4 Model Order Selection

We use the following information criteria for model order selection in conjunction with log likelihood function: Akaike information criterion (AIC) due to Akaike (1978), Schwarz information Criterion (SIC) due to (Schwarz, 1978) and Hannan-Quinn information Criterion (HQC) due to (Hannan, 1980). The formula for the information criteria are:

where is the number of free parameters to be estimated in the model, T is the number of observations and L is the likelihood function defined as:

Thus given a set of estimated ARMA models for a given set of data, the preferred model is the one with the minimum information criteria and maximum log likelihood.

2.5 Model Forecast Evaluation

We employed Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) accuracy measures to select an optimal model mode that is both parsimonious and accurately forecast the data based on minimum values of the accuracy measures.

2.5.1 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

The Root Mean Square Error is a statistical tool for measuring the accuracy of a forecast method. It is computed as:

Where  is the forecast value of the series and  is the actual series and  is the number of forecast observations.

2.5.2 Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

The mean absolute error (MAE) is a statistical tool for measuring the average size of the errors in a collection of predictions, without taking their directions into account. It is measured as the average absolute difference between the predicted values and the actual values and is used to assess the effectiveness of a model. It is given as:

where”  is the actual value of the series at time  is the forecasted value of the series and  is the number of observations. The lower the value of RMSE and MAE, the better the model is able to forecast future values.

3.0       RESULTS AND DISC0USSION

3.1 Summary Statistics and Normality Measures

This study seeks to provide a short-term prediction of non-insulin-dependent diabetes (Type-2 diabetes mellitus) among farmers in Benue State using the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model. Before model estimation, a preliminary analysis of the dataset was conducted to summarize its key characteristics and assess the normality of the distribution. Table 1 below presents the descriptive statistics and normality test results for the observed monthly diabetes cases.

Table 1: Summary Statistics and Normality Measures

VariableStatistic
Mean5571.321
Maximum9661.00
Minimum3624.000
Standard Deviation1769.088
Skewness0.010212
Kurtosis1.767498
Jarque-Bera Statistic15.57465
p-value0.000415
Number of Observations246

From the result of summary statistics and normality measures reported in Table 1 above, the mean value of approximately 5571 infection cases indicates the average number of recorded non-insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers during the study period, while the maximum and minimum values (9661 and 3624, respectively) show the range of variation in the data. The standard deviation (1769) suggests a relatively high level of fluctuation around the mean, implying moderate variability in the monthly incidence of diabetes cases.

The skewness value (0.010212), being close to zero, indicates that the distribution of the series is approximately symmetric. However, the kurtosis value (1.767498) is less than 3, signifying a platykurtic distribution, that is, the data are relatively flatter than a normal distribution with lighter tails.

The Jarque–Bera statistic (15.57465) with an associated p-value of 0.000415 is statistically significant at the 1% level, leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis of normality. This implies that the series does not follow a perfectly normal distribution, which is a common characteristic of real-world time series data.

Overall, the results suggest that while the data are fairly symmetric, they deviate slightly from normality, a factor to be considered when fitting and diagnosing the ARMA model for accurate short-term forecasting.

4.2 Graphical Examination of Diabetes Miletus Series

Examining the morbidity cases of diabetes mellitus is essential for identifying trends and patterns over time, which can provide insights into the progression and fluctuations of the disease within a population. By analyzing these visual representations, healthcare providers and policymakers can better understand peak periods, seasonal variations, and the impact of interventions. This information is crucial for planning targeted healthcare responses, optimizing resource allocation, and developing strategies to reduce disease incidence and manage complications, ultimately improving health outcomes for affected populations. The time plots of the level and log transform series of diabetes mellitus are plotted in Figures 1 and 2 respectively as shown below.

The time plots of the level series and log transformed series reported in Figures 1 and 2 below indicate that both series are covariance or weakly stationary which implies the absence of unit root in the series in level. This is indicated by the smooth trend of both series.

Figure 1: Time Series Plot of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from 2005 to 2025

Figure 2: Time Series Plot of Natural Log of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from 2005

            to 2025

4.3 Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test Result

To ensure the appropriateness of applying an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for short-term prediction of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, it is necessary to examine the time series properties of the data. A key requirement for ARMA modeling is that the underlying series must be stationary. Therefore, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test was conducted to determine whether the series  is stationary. Table 2 below presents the results of the ADF test under two specifications: with an intercept only, and with both intercept and trend.

The ADF statistics reported in Table 2 below for both model specifications (intercept only and intercept with trend) are -15.3344 and -15.4304, respectively. These values are far more negative than their corresponding 5% critical values (-2.8731 and -3.4283). In addition, the associated p-values are 0.0000, indicating strong statistical significance. Because the ADF test statistics are well below the critical values and the p-values are less than 0.05, the null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected under both model specifications. This confirms that the series stationary in its level form. Stationarity implies that the mean and variance of the diabetes case series remain stable over time, making it suitable for direct ARMA modeling without differencing. The strong evidence of stationarity enhances the reliability of subsequent short-term forecasts produced by the ARMA model.

Table 2: Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test Result

VariableOptionADF Test Statisticp-value5% Critical Value
Intercept only-15.33440.0000-2.8731
Intercept & Trend-15.43040.0000-3.4283

4.4 Autocorrelations and Partial Autocorrelations Functions of the Series

After confirming that the series of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State is stationary, the next step in the ARMA modeling process involves examining the autocorrelation structure of the series. The Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) are used to identify the dependence pattern between current and past observations, which guides the selection of appropriate autoregressive (AR) and moving-average (MA) orders.

Furthermore, the Ljung-Box Q-statistics were computed to test for the joint significance of autocorrelations up to various lags. This test determines whether the residuals are independently distributed — a key requirement for model adequacy. Table 3 below presents the ACF, PACF, and Ljung-Box Q-statistics results for the series while Figure 3 belowpresented the ACF and PACF plots of the series.

The results of ACF and PACF reported in Table 3 below and Figure 3 show that the autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) coefficients for all lags are small in magnitude, fluctuating around zero. This indicates the absence of significant serial correlation in the data. None of the autocorrelations exceed the approximate 95% confidence bounds (±0.1 for a large sample size of 246), suggesting that the time series behaves like a white-noise process.

The Ljung-Box Q-statistics and their corresponding p-values across all lags (p > 0.05) further confirm that there is no significant autocorrelation remaining in the residuals. This means that the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation cannot be rejected at any lag, implying that the series is adequately described by a stationary stochastic process (Ljung & Box, 1979).

Table 3: Autocorrelations and Ljung-Box Q-Statistics Test Results

LagACFPACFQ-Statisticsp-value
10.0140.0140.04580.831
2-0.019-0.0190.13380.935
30.0040.0050.13800.987
4-0.049-0.0500.74970.945
50.0220.0240.87470.972
60.0370.0341.21650.976
70.0220.0231.34200.987
80.0170.0151.41260.994
9-0.007-0.0051.42600.998
10-0.110-0.1074.56590.918
11-0.025-0.0224.72270.944
120.0780.0756.29440.901
13-0.008-0.0126.31150.934
14-0.017-0.0276.39070.956
150.0520.0557.09700.955
16-0.035-0.0227.42260.964
17-0.012-0.0087.45990.977
18-0.088-0.0939.52130.946
19-0.054-0.05010.3020.945
20-0.092-0.11412.5670.895
21-0.026-0.03212.7500.917
22-0.115-0.11516.3690.797
230.0070.00816.3810.838
24-0.053-0.07417.1650.842
25-0.056-0.03618.0320.841
26-0.047-0.05618.6430.851
270.0550.05719.4820.852
28-0.011-0.03219.5140.882
290.0600.05720.5110.876
300.0560.04221.3810.876
310.0400.06121.8280.888
32-0.001-0.01521.8280.912
33-0.027-0.00722.0360.927
34-0.109-0.12125.4320.855
35-0.056-0.07426.3420.854
360.0660.02527.6040.841

Figure 3: Plots of ACF and PACF of Log Transformed Series

Collectively, these findings suggest that the series is not driven by persistent temporal dependence, and any ARMA model fitted to the data should yield uncorrelated and well-behaved residuals. Therefore, the dataset is suitable for ARMA model identification and estimation, and the absence of significant autocorrelation validates the appropriateness of proceeding with short-term forecasting using the ARMA framework.

4.5 Model Order Selection

Following the establishment of stationarity and the absence of significant autocorrelation in the diabetes time series, various ARMA model orders were estimated to determine the most parsimonious and best-fitting specification for short-term prediction. Model selection was based on several statistical criteria, including the Log Likelihood (LogL), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and Hannan–Quinn Criterion (HQC). Generally, the preferred model is the one with the highest Log Likelihood and the lowest values of AIC, SIC, and HQC. Table 4 below presents the results of the model order selection process.

Among the twenty-four ARMA model specifications estimated, the ARMA(3,3) model exhibits the highest Log Likelihood value (-24.0103) and the lowest AIC (0.2552), SIC (0.3159), and HQC (0.2958) values. These results indicate that the ARMA(3,3) model provides the best balance between goodness-of-fit and parsimony.

Table 4:Model Order Selection using Log Likelihood and Information Criteria

S/nModelLogLAICSICHQC
1.ARMA(0,1)-34.45970.29640.33490.3079
2.ARMA(1,0)-34.81940.30060.33910.3121
3.ARMA(1,1)-32.94440.29340.33630.3107
4.ARMA(0,2)-34.41070.30420.34690.3214
5.ARMA(2,0)-35.12560.31250.35550.3298
6.ARMA(1,2)-32.92560.30140.35860.3245
7.ARMA(2,1)-33.29880.30570.36310.3288
8.ARMA(2,2)-30.37710.28990.36160.3188
9.ARMA(0,3)-34.40600.31220.36920.3352
10.ARMA(3,0)-35.46880.32480.38230.3480
11.ARMA(1,3)-28.09120.27010.36160.3089
12.ARMA(3,1)-32.90280.31190.38380.3409
13.ARMA(2,3)-30.37080.29810.38410.3328
14.ARMA(3,2)-30.53040.30070.38590.3354
15.ARMA(3,3)**-24.01030.25520.31590.2958
16.ARMA(0,4)-34.11570.31800.38930.3467
17.ARMA(4,0)-35.34920.33350.40560.3625
18.ARMA(1,4)-34.44660.33020.41590.3647
19.ARMA(4,1)-35.34320.34170.42820.3765
20.ARMA(2,4)-32.00990.31980.42010.3602
21.ARMA(4,2)-26.70270.27850.37950.3192
22.ARMA(3,4)-25.40650.27990.38990.3213
23.ARMA(4,3)-33.47970.34280.45810.3893
24.ARMA(4,4)-31.42530.29620.40600.3285

Therefore, based on the information criteria, the ARMA(3,3) model is selected as the optimal model for forecasting short-term variations in non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State. This suggests that both autoregressive and moving average components up to the third order significantly contribute to capturing the dynamic structure of the series.

4.6 Parameter Estimates of ARMA(3,3) Model

After selecting the ARMA(3,3) model as the optimal specification based on the information criteria, the model parameters were estimated to evaluate the dynamic relationship between past observations and random disturbances in the series of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State. Table 5 below presents the estimated coefficients of the ARMA(3,3) model, along with their corresponding standard errors, t-statistics, and p-values. Goodness-of-fit measures such as the R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, F-statistic, and Durbin–Watson statistic are also reported to assess the adequacy of the fitted model.

Table 5: Parameter Estimates of ARMA(3,3) Model

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-Statisticp-value
C8.7686640.017218509.27610.0000
AR(1)0.3660960.02464114.857130.0000
AR(2)0.3112030.02938210.591710.0000
AR(3)-0.9123590.024212-37.681660.0000
MA(1)-0.3728280.009593-38.862770.0000
MA(2)-0.3869230.009312-41.550860.0000
MA(3)0.9823890.007644128.51600.0000
R-squared0.890511 AIC0.255229
Adjusted R20.867389 SIC0.315852
F-statistic6.914400 HQC0.295759
Prob(F-stat.)0.000951 Durbin-Watson stat.2.011502

The model estimation results reported in Table 5 show that all autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) coefficients are statistically significant at the 1% level, as indicated by their very low p-values (p < 0.01). This implies that past values and past error terms up to the third lag significantly influence the current level of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers.

Specifically, the positive coefficients of AR(1) and AR(2) suggest a direct persistence effect, meaning that increases in diabetes cases in the immediate past periods tend to raise current cases. Conversely, the negative AR(3) coefficient indicates a corrective mechanism, implying that after about three periods, the series tends to revert toward its mean. The MA terms also show alternating positive and negative signs, suggesting that short-term shocks have both dampening and amplifying effects over time before dissipating.

The high R-squared (0.8905) and adjusted R-squared (0.8674) values indicate that approximately 89% of the variation in diabetes cases is explained by the model, signifying a very good fit. The F-statistic (6.9144) with a significant probability value (0.000951) confirms the overall significance of the model.The Durbin–Watson statistic (2.0115) is close to 2, suggesting the absence of serial correlation in the residuals, while the information criteria (AIC = 0.2552, SIC = 0.3159, HQC = 0.2958) reaffirm that the ARMA(3,3) model remains the most parsimonious and efficient choice.

Overall, the ARMA(3,3) model adequately captures the temporal dynamics and short-term fluctuations in non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, making it suitable for reliable short-term forecasting.

4.7 Model Diagnostic Checks

Following the estimation of the ARMA(3,3) model for predicting non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, diagnostic checks such as multicolinearity test and Ljung-Box Q-statistic tests were conducted to verify the adequacy of the fitted model. This assessment ensures that the residuals behave like white noise, uncorrelated, homoscedastic, and pattern-free over time. The test are presented in the following subsections.

4.7.1 Multicolinearity test result

Multicollinearity diagnostics were performed to make sure the variables in ARMA(3,3) model weren’t overlapping too much. Using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for each autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) term, the test assessed how multicollinearity might affect the stability and reliability of parameter estimates. Generally, VIF values above 10 indicate severe multicollinearity, values between 5 and 10 suggest moderate correlation, and values below 5 imply no serious concern. The results presented in Table 6 show both uncentered and centered VIF statistics for the ARMA(3,3) model parameters.

The results of multicolinearity test reported in Table 6 below reveal that all centered VIF values are considerably low, ranging between 1.11 and 2.55, which are far below the critical threshold of 10. This indicates that there is no serious multicollinearity among the explanatory variables (AR and MA terms) in the estimated ARMA(3,3) model.

Therefore, the estimated parameters are statistically reliable, and the standard errors are not inflated by multicollinearity. This implies that the ARMA (3,3) model is well-conditioned, and the coefficients can be interpreted with confidence.

Table 6: Test for Multicolinearity (Variance Inflation Factors)

 CoefficientUncenteredCentered
VariableVarianceVIFVIF
C 0.000296 1.018813 Na
AR(1) 0.000607 1.779456 1.779044
AR(2) 0.000863 2.552345 2.552344
AR(3) 0.000586 1.768375 1.768101
MA(1) 9.20E-05 1.257613 1.255458
MA(2) 8.67E-05 1.213557 1.203709
MA(3) 5.84E-05 1.121942 1.111356

4.7.2 Ljung-Box Q-statistic test result for serial correlation

The Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), and Ljung–Box Q-statistics were used to test for serial correlation. High p-values (greater than 0.05) for the Q-statistics indicate no significant autocorrelation, suggesting that the residuals are random and the model is well specified. Table 5 presents these diagnostic test results for the ARMA(3,3) model residuals.

The results of Q-statistic reported in Table 5 and the ACF as well as PACF plots reported in Figure 4 show that all residual autocorrelations (ACF and PACF) are very small and fluctuate closely around zero across all 36 lags. None of the autocorrelation coefficients appear significant, suggesting that the residuals from the ARMA(3,3) model are approximately white noise.

Furthermore, the Ljung–Box Q-statistics have p-values consistently greater than 0.05, indicating that the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation cannot be rejected at any lag. This confirms that there is no statistically significant serial correlation remaining in the residuals. In addition, the Durbin–Watson statistic from the model estimation (2.0115) supports this conclusion by indicating near-zero autocorrelation in the residuals.

Overall, these diagnostic results confirm that the ARMA(3,3) model is well specified, the residuals are independently and randomly distributed, and the model provides a statistically adequate fit to the data. Therefore, the model is suitable for reliable short-term forecasting of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State

Table 7: Autocorrelations and Ljung-Box Q-Statistic Test Results of Residuals

LagACFPACFQ-Statisticsp-value
1-0.024-0.0240.14150.707
2-0.012-0.0120.17600.916
3-0.069-0.0701.35580.716
40.0070.0031.36690.850
5-0.126-0.1285.32470.378
6-0.036-0.0485.65410.463
7-0.017-0.0245.72940.572
80.1420.12410.8120.213
9-0.042-0.04211.2540.259
100.0460.03211.8020.299
11-0.021-0.01511.9180.370
120.0520.04412.6280.397
13-0.0250.01212.7940.464
14-0.009-0.00812.8150.541
150.0620.08013.8040.540
160.0680.05315.0190.523
170.1120.14718.3160.369
180.1090.12721.4750.256
19-0.0080.02721.4930.310
20-0.087-0.06623.5290.264
21-0.066-0.03224.7070.260
22-0.0200.01024.8100.306
23-0.062-0.05725.8550.308
24-0.048-0.06426.4800.329
250.021-0.04426.5990.376
260.020-0.03726.7040.425
27-0.033-0.06927.0030.464
280.0650.05028.1560.456
290.0520.03028.8980.470
300.0620.04629.9690.467
310.0140.04030.0230.516
320.0100.01630.0530.565
330.0420.05030.5550.589
340.0030.00430.5580.637
35-0.039-0.01330.9940.662
36-0.008-0.00131.0140.705

Figure 4:Plot of Correlogram of Residuals of Estimated ARMA(3,3) Model

4.8 Forecast and Forecast Evaluation

To evaluate the predictive performance of the ARMA(3,3) model in forecasting non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, forecast accuracy measures were computed. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used to assess both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Lower values of these statistics indicate better model performance and predictive reliability. The result is presented in Table 8.

The results of forecast comparison reported in Table 8below show that the out-of-sample forecast achieved slightly lower RMSE (0.2671), MAE (0.2310), and MAPE (2.6490) values compared to the in-sample forecast (RMSE = 0.2715, MAE = 0.2446, MAPE = 2.6781). This suggests that the ARMA(3,3) model demonstrates strong predictive capability, with minimal forecast error and good generalization performance. The model selected in forecast mode, as denoted by the accuracy measures, provides reliable short-term out-of-sample predictions of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases.

Table 8: Forecast Comparison using Accuracy Measures

 RMSEMAEMAPE
In-Sample0.2715100.2446152.678116
Out-of-Sample**0.2671000.2310482.649005

Note: ** denotes forecast mode selected by accuracy measures.

4.8.1 Forecast of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from July, 2025 to June, 2027

To evaluate the short-term predictive performance of the ARMA(3,3) model, forecasts of non–insulin-dependent diabetes (Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus) cases among farmers in Benue State were generated for the period July 2025 to June 2027. The forecasts were computed in natural logarithmic form and then converted to actual population estimates. For each forecast, the standard error, lower confidence limit (LCL), and upper confidence limit (UCL) were calculated at a 95% confidence level, using  . These values provide a range within which the true number of diabetes cases is expected to fall with high probability, thereby indicating the reliability and uncertainty of the forecasts. The forecast result is reported in Table 9 below while the forecast graph is presented as Figure 5 below too.

Table 9: “Forecast of Diabetes Miletus Infection Cases in Benue State from July 2025-

            June, 2027″

Year: MonthForecast (natural log form)Actual Forecast (No. of Persons)
ForecastStd. errorLCLForecastUCL
2025:066.99678896
2025:078.774050.2712433799646411000
2025:088.726550.2716693619616510499
2025:098.782040.2716703826651611098
2025:108.771320.2720653782644710988
2025:118.801410.2726723893664411337
2025:128.745190.2726723680628110717
2026:018.760880.2727903738638010889
2026:028.745850.2734553677628510741
2026:038.797250.2734663871661611308
2026:048.773660.2734763781646211044
2026:058.778250.2740403794649211107
2026:068.736480.2741103638622610654
2026:078.768030.2741143755642610996
2026:088.768100.2744733752642611005
2026:098.797290.2746523862661611335
2026:108.760260.2746693722637610923
2026:118.761130.2748243724638110936
2026:128.745040.2751113662627910767
2027:018.783410.2751213805652511188
2027:028.777340.2751523782648611121
2027:038.782230.2754813798651711183
2027:048.747160.2754813667629310798
2027:058.760580.2754813717637810944
2027:068.763130.2757593724639410978
Total210.40663  154075 
Average8.766942917  6419.7917 

Note: For 95% confidence intervals, . LCL and UCL denote lower and upper confidence limits respectively.

Figure 5: Forecast Graph of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from July, 2025-June, 2027

The forecast results reported in Table 9 and Figure 5 above reveals that the predicted number of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State is expected to fluctuate moderately over the two-year forecast horizon (July 2025–June 2027). The monthly forecasts range between approximately 3,600 and 11,300 cases, with an overall average of about 6,420 cases per month and a total forecast of 154,075 cases during the study period. The relatively narrow confidence intervals across months suggest a high level of precision in the model’s predictions.

Overall, the ARMA(3,3) model demonstrates strong forecasting capability, indicating that diabetes prevalence among farmers in Benue State is likely to remain fairly stable with mild month-to-month variations over the forecast period.

4.9 Implications of the Study to Farmers and Postharvest Losses in Benue State

The implications of this study for farmers and postharvest losses in Benue State are significant from both public health and socio-economic perspectives. The findings, which forecast the prevalence of non–insulin-dependent diabetes (Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus) among farmers, suggest that a substantial portion of the agricultural workforce may experience declining health and productivity over time. Poor health conditions such as diabetes can reduce farmers’ physical capacity to engage in strenuous agricultural activities, particularly during critical periods like harvesting and processing. “This in turn increases the likelihood of postharvest losses, as crops may remain un-harvested or inadequately stored due to reduced labour efficiency and absenteeism resulting from illness”.

Moreover, “higher diabetes prevalence among farmers implies increased medical expenditures and a diversion of household income away from agricultural investment”, further compounding the problem of low productivity and waste. The study underscores the urgent need for integrated health and agricultural policies—including improved rural healthcare services, regular medical screening, health education on diet and lifestyle, and the promotion of labour-saving technologies—to mitigate the dual burden of disease and postharvest losses. Ultimately, addressing the health challenges of farmers is crucial for achieving food security, sustaining agricultural livelihoods, and enhancing overall economic resilience in Benue State.

4.0       Conclusion

The study demonstrates that the ARMA(3,3) model effectively forecasts the incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes among farmers in Benue State, Nigeria, The analysis revealed that the ARMA(3,3) model provided the best fit based on information criteria and diagnostic tests, with residuals behaving like white noise, indicating a well-specified and reliable model. The forecasts from July 2025 to June 2027 suggest a steady and relatively high incidence of diabetes cases among farmers, implying that the disease poses an ongoing public health concern within the agricultural population. This condition could adversely affect farmers’ productivity, increase medical costs, and indirectly contribute to higher postharvest losses due to reduced labour availability and inefficiencies in farm management. These findings highlight the interconnectedness between health and agricultural output, emphasizing that the burden of chronic diseases like diabetes extends beyond healthcare into the realm of food security and economic stability. Therefore, proactive health interventions and policy integration between the health and agricultural sectors are vital. Ensuring farmers’ wellness through preventive care, early detection, and education can significantly reduce the impact of diabetes and its broader economic consequences. The study provides empirical evidence to guide policymakers, healthcare providers, and agricultural development agencies in formulating context-specific strategies to improve both health outcomes and agricultural sustainability in Benue State.

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