Effects of Pre-Reading Activities on Senior Secondary Students’ Achievement in Reading Comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria

Citation

Musa, D. D., Jangebe, S. M., Muopshin, J., Muopshin, J., & Yabo, N. U. (2026). Effects of Pre-Reading Activities on Senior Secondary Students’ Achievement in Reading Comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria. International Journal of Research, 13(4), 279–292. https://doi.org/10.26643/ijr/edupub/23

Danjuma Dogara Musa*, Salisu Muhammad Jangebe, Jocelyn Muopshin, Nafisat Umar Yabo.

ddmusadagaske@gmail.com

Department of Language Education, Federal College of Education (Technical) Gusau, Zamfara State, Nigeria

Abstract:

The present study examined the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-Central which comprises Plateau, Benue, Niger, Kwara, Kogi and Nasarawa states. The study adopted the quasi-experimental research design. Specifically, the pre-test post-test non-equivalent comparison group design. The sample size of the study consisted of 103 senior secondary students (SS2) The sample was drawn using simple random and purposive sampling techniques. Reading Comprehension Achievement Test (RCAT). was used to gather data. The Reading Comprehension Achievement Test (RCAT) measured the two reading skills namely the literal and inferential comprehension. The data collected for the study were organized and interpreted using descriptive and inferential statistics. The research questions one to two were answered using the mean and standard deviation. Hypotheses one to two were tested using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The findings showed that pre-reading activities motivate and sustain students’ interest in the actual reading activity. They also activate the building of related information in such a way that new information is easily assimilated into learners’ existing fields of knowledge. Though pre-reading activities such as brainstorming, use of picture and predicting play a critical role in the reading comprehension classroom, the study revealed that a significant number of teachers do not use them. The few who do, neither use a variety of them nor use them regularly. The study recommends that curriculum developers and implementers should incorporate appropriate and regular pre-reading activities for assigned texts in the reading comprehension classroom.

Keywords: reading, pre-reading activities, reading comprehension, achievements.

Introduction

Reading comprehension refers to the ability to understand information presented in written form. It is a process of making predictions and confirming predictions. The ability to read and understand is, therefore, essential for academic learning because it is the foundation for success in all academic subjects. It is the essence and goal of reading, since the purpose of all reading is to gather meaning from the printed page. The ultimate goal of reading is for extraction of meaning from what the reader is able to read. It is the ability to read text, process it and understand its meaning.

Background and Statement of the Problem

Reading comprehension is the ability to read, internalize, understand, and interact with the text you are reading. It involves critical thinking and deductive reasoning to make meaning of an entire piece of writing. Reading comprehension skills are essential for students, professionals, and anyone who wants to read for pleasure or information. It’s not just about phonological awareness and reading words aloud; it encapsulates language skills such as grammar (syntax), vocabulary, and semantics, to understand the meaning of texts. You make inferences and form an opinion about the read text. Good reading comprehension involves creating images of the words you just read. Readers make connections to previous knowledge as they enjoy the text. They can comfortably answer comprehension questions and summarize parts of the writing or the entire text.

Without reading, ideas and facts stored up in printed materials and electronic sources cannot be tapped. In view of this, reading is regarded indispensable in education as it promotes cognitive growth (Beard, 2021).

Seeing the important role that English language plays as medium of communication in education in Nigeria, the ability to read and understand texts is central. Reading is one of the four basic skills of English language namely listening, speaking, reading and writing. It is the primary means through which students gain information across various subjects and discipline. It makes students understand and interpret text which helps to enhance their critical thinking. Reading exposes one to new ideas, culture, and perspective and increases one’s understanding of the world (Nwodo, 2019).

Researchers have consistently shown that both teachers and students face numerous challenges in teaching and learning reading comprehension. Many English language teachers in secondary schools lack specialized training in teaching reading strategies. According to Ajide (2020), many teachers rely on outdated methods that focus on literal comprehension and vocabulary drills rather than teaching inferential or evaluative reading skills. Teachers often adopt the read and answer method without guiding students through active reading strategies. Lack of familiarity with scaffolding techniques like prediction, vocabulary pre-teaching, pre-questioning, summarizing and previewing has effect on the students’ performance and achievement. The conventional method

employed by the teachers does not allow the students to employ various skills of reading that will aid their comprehension of the literal, inferential and critical among other skills.

In order to address the challenges of students’ achievement in reading comprehension, the following skills need to be taught systematically and intentionally which are literal comprehension and inferential comprehension.

Literal reading comprehension is an understanding of information and facts that are directly stated in the text. This ability is considered the first and most basic level of comprehending a text. The literal level is the most fundamental part of reading. Without understanding of literal meaning, it will be difficult for the students to answer questions on a passage that requires literal understanding. Inferential reading is the ability to realize the hidden concepts and the unstated relationship between the lines in a text. It is concerned with the ability of students to understand meaning that is not explicitly stated or explained in the text. Critical reading is a process of analysing, interpreting and sometimes evaluating. When students read critically, they use critical thinking skills to question the text. Critical reading helps the reader to have a deep understanding of the passage. It helps the reader to seek knowledge, develop ideas and to reflect on the objectives of the passage.

Most of the studies conducted concentrated on EFL classroom environments and at the tertiary, pre-tertiary, and preschool levels. There exists little current literature on the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension. This study, therefore, purposed tofind out the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria.

Aim and Objectives

The aim of this study was to ascertain the effects of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-Central, Nigeria.

RQ1: What is the difference in literal comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools?

RQ2: What is the difference in inferential comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools?

Scope of the Study

This research work was restricted to the effect of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in North-central Nigeria. Pre-reading activities such as brainstorming, pre-questioning, predicting were used to teach reading comprehension to senior secondary students. The variables of interest as contained in the research questions were the ability to answer literal comprehension questions, and identify inferential ideas.

Theoretical Framework

Schema theory was used for the study. The theory was first proposed by Immanuel Kant which was later developed by Sir Frederic Bartle who became the propounder of the theory in 1932 who posits that people’s understanding and remembrance of events is shaped by their expectations or prior knowledge, and that the prior knowledge is presented mentally in some sorts of schematic structures. The profounder observes that when people are asked to repeat a story from memory, they often fill in details which are not included in the original but related to what they have already known based on their cultural background. The proponent identifies means on how to guide the reader in the actual reading comprehension as a process.

Literature Review

Reading comprehension is one of the pillars of the act of reading (Lawal, 2019 Adele, 2021 Asemota, 2018) Obika, 2020)). When a person reads a text he engages in a complex array of cognitive processes. The reader is simultaneously using his awareness and understanding of phonemes, phonics and ability to comprehend or construct meaning from the text. This last component of the act of reading is reading comprehension. It is the most difficult and most important of the three. There are elements that make up the process of reading comprehension. In order to understand a text, the reader must be able to comprehend the vocabulary used in the piece of writing. Reading comprehension is one of the necessary subjects in the primary and secondary levels of education. The readers are expected to drive the real information incorporated by the author, accurately. The fluency and accuracy skills motivate

the children and create the tendency to read more. This provides the basis for the use of pre-reading activities as a strategy to teach reading comprehension to senior secondary students.

Reading comprehension is therefore the purpose of reading and remains an essential part of all learning. Comprehension can be conceptualized as the extraction of relevant knowledge from texts and consists of three elements; the reader, the text, and the purpose of reading. It is the interaction between text, readers, and purpose as well as the use of reading comprehension strategies that increase comprehension. Tompkins (2011) consequently defines reading comprehension as the level of understanding of a text/message. Reading comprehension is the interaction between the written words and the knowledge they elicit from sources outside the text or message. Thus, reading comprehension is a cognitive process that is meant for decoding the meaning embedded in a text in order to understand what the author is communicating to their audience through the message. Without comprehension, reading is reduced to symbols that do not provide the reader with any information, and again, without comprehension, reading is nothing more than tracking symbols on a page with the readers’ eyes and sounding them out (Mahmoud, 2015).

Effects of Pre-Reading Activities on Students ’Reading Comprehension

Pre-reading activities are meant to give students the background knowledge they need in order to better understand a text when they interact with it. They are the activities that pupils are taken through to enable them to acquire skills for actual reading. Therefore, they are designed to prepare beginners for formal reading. Johnson (2010) states that pre-reading activities are a series of activities pupils are exposed to, as a way of preparing them for formal reading. For this reason, they can be viewed as essential tasks that should be carried out to activate learners’ schema and avoid any failures in text comprehension. Pupils familiarize themselves with the subject, vocabulary, or challenging structures in the passage through the use of pre-reading activities. Pre-reading exercises are particularly useful in fostering a love for reading and in introducing important cultural ideas. According to Ping (2014), pre-reading activities are essential to pupils’ later applications in school activities. They are exercises that give pupils the chance to decide whether to read more of a text in order to discover more intriguing ideas from it (Mikatama, 2019), bring about success in pupils’ comprehension (Malikhatul, 2019), has key impacts on reading comprehension.

Pre-reading activities are essential for giving students the fundamental knowledge they need about texts, piquing their interest in reading texts, and keeping them in a reading environment throughout their formal learning stage (Osei, 2016). According to Hasan (2011), students’ schemata can be triggered during the pre-reading phase before the real reading stage, and this can improve their comprehension of written material. It is clear that pre-reading activities are very important in the reading class and have a good impact on pupils. Pre-reading activities, according to (Villanueva, 2022), include a variety of games, comparative picture studies, and picture-storytelling exercises that are typically helpful in assisting children in developing the reading abilities necessary for formal reading. These activities are enabling activities which give young readers the thorough grounding they need to plan activities and understand the reading material (Kim & Quinn, 2013). In this view, pre-reading activities uncover and elicit prior knowledge, and the purpose(s) for reading, and develop a knowledge foundation required for dealing with the content and structure of the contents provided (Maingi, 2018).

Pre-reading activities set up and strengthen students’ foundation for reading materials, demonstrating the critical function pre-reading activities have in strengthening students’ focus and attention on the reading materials they will be reading (Franceschini, 2013). Without a doubt, the activities allow the child to gradually test out his emotional self, calm himself through emotional expression in a range of reading situations, and more easily pick up pre-reading skills (Abdulai, 2014). Pre-reading activities have drawn a lot of attention as the cornerstone techniques for introducing children to reading and maintaining their interest in texts (Maingi, 2018) and by employing these activities, readers are better prepared for the reading activities when they are motivated to read the text, which is a result of pre-reading activities. Additionally, because of their increased confidence, children are better able to complete the activity without expending too much effort, and they are more eager to participate in it. Furthermore, pre-reading activities add excitement to the activity, give the students a reason to read, and give the teacher an opportunity to assess how well the text can be understood with the aid of the activities assigned before/after reading (Osei, 2016). Hence, by providing pre-reading activities, teachers can help learners become successful readers (Dickson, 2022). The application of the pre-reading technique is effective in improving reading comprehension of narrative text (Mujahidah & Ramli, 2019) and increases reading performance.

Pre-reading activities have positive effects on students’ performance in reading comprehension (Rondon & Tomitch, 2020; Asgar, 2016) and can have positive effects on all students whether high-level or low-level, and all learners can benefit from the techniques (Hashemi, 2016). They are motivational (Nahid &Asgar, 2016), and improve students’ comprehension of texts because pre-reading strategies activate students’ prior knowledge and facilitate L2 learners’ comprehension ability of the target text (Al Akremi (2016). Therefore, the wise use of pre-reading techniques is one primary step in ensuring efficient comprehension and a more successful reading (Febriantil. 2022). Based on the forgoing arguments and empirical evidence, the following hypotheses are stated:

H₁: There is no significant difference in literal comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools H₂: There is no significant difference in inferential comprehension achievement between treatment and control groups of SS2 students in public secondary schools

Importance of Pre-Reading Activities to Students’ Achievement

Pre-reading activities are strategies or exercises designed to prepare students for engaging with a text. These activities offer several advantages, both in terms of enhancing comprehension and fostering interest. Here are the key benefits:

It activates prior knowledge by helping the students connect their existing knowledge and experiences to the new text and makes the reading material more palatable and easier to understand. It Builds vocabulary: It introduces key terms and concepts before encountering them in the text and reduces the cognitive load during reading, allowing students to focus on comprehension.

It establishes purpose by encouraging students to understand why they are reading the text and sets goals, such as identifying specific information, themes, or ideas. It Stimulates Interest by engaging students’ curiosity about the topic and makes them more motivated to read and explore the material.

It promotes predictive thinking in encouraging students to predict contents based on titles, headings, and visuals and develops critical thinking skills by making them actively anticipate what they will learn. It facilitates engagement: It activities like group discussions, brainstorming, or visual analysis, foster collaboration and creates a dynamic learning environment before reading.

It reduces anxiety by familiarizing students with the text’s content or challenges this aspect can make it less intimidating and boosts confidence by preparing them for what lies ahead. It enhances comprehension: It prepares student to navigate the structure and ideas in the text and makes it easier to focus on deeper levels of understanding.

Method and Procedure

Design, Population and Sample

The quasi-experimental research design was used in the current study. Specifically, the study adopted the pre-test post-test nonequivalent comparison group design. The population of this study was all SS2 students in public secondary schools in Karu Local Government Area in Nasarawa State. The population of all the secondary schools in Karu Local Government was one thousand nine hundred, ninety (1990) students. The sample schools for the study consisted of 103 students that were in SS2 at the time of the study in the designated schools.

Instrument

The Reading Comprehension Achievement Test (RCAT) was used to gather data for this study. The RCAT measured the two reading skills namely the literal skill, and inferential skill. The RCAT was adopted and adapted from SSCE English language 1 Examination of June 1992.

Procedure

The pretest was administered for two days. Day one was for testing questions on literal comprehension while day two was used for testing questions on inferential comprehension. A comprehension passage was given and students were asked to answer five questions.

Administration of the Treatment

Treatment was administered by the researcher in two experimental schools. Treatment consisted of reading comprehension achievement test. Students in the experimental group were taught using pre-reading activities while students in the control group were taught using normal school English lessons within the periods. Treatment lasted for the periods of 2 weeks which were delivered two times a week for 40 minutes, or a double period of 80 minutes.

Administration of Post-Test

The researcher administered on the participants in both the experimental and control groups after the treatment. It was administered the same duration of time and day as the pre-test. The text items were as same as the pre-test as students were asked to use 30 minutes to answer the comprehension questions on the passage.

Analyses

The research questions raised for this study were answered using the mean and standard deviation. By this, the significant difference between the experimental and control groups in the pre-test and post-test were determined.

Research Question One

What is the difference between the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups?

To determine the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of students in the experimental and control groups, mean and standard deviation were employed as presented in Table1.

Table 1: The Pre-test and Post-test Literal Comprehension Achievement Mean scores of SS II students in the Experimental and Control Groups

Group		Pretest		Posttest
	N	Mean	SD	Mean SD	Mean Gain	𝒙̅-Gain difference
Experimental	49	9.76	1.74	15.24 1.88	5.48	4.60
Control	54	9.91	1.48	10.69 1.06	0.88

Table 1 shows the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in reading comprehension in the experimental and control groups. The experimental group obtained a pre-test mean score of 9.76 with a standard deviation of 1.74 and a post-test mean score of 15.24 with a standard deviation of 1.88, yielding a mean gain of 5.48 after exposure to pre-reading activities. The control group had a pre-test mean score of 9.91 with a standard deviation of 1.48 and post-test mean score of

10.69 with a standard deviation of 1.06, yielding a mean gain of 0.88 The result indicated that students in the experimental group had a higher mean gain score after exposure to pre-reading activities than those in the control group who were not given treatment. The mean gain difference was 4.60 in favour of the experimental group. This means that pre-reading activities did increase the students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

Research Question Two

What is the difference between the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups?

To determine the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of students in the experimental and control groups, mean and standard deviation were employed as presented in Table 2.

Table 2: The Pre-test and Post-test Inferential Comprehension Achievement Mean Scores of SS II Students in the Experimental and Control Groups

Group		Pretest		Posttest
	N	Mean	SD	Mean SD	Mean Gain	𝒙̅-Gain difference
Experimental	49	9.78	1.48	16.08 2.52	6.30	4.54
Control	54	9.28	1.76	11.04 0.73	1.76

Table 2 shows the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups. The experimental group obtained a pre-test mean score of with 9.78 standard deviation of 1.48 and a post-test mean score of 16.08 with a standard deviation of 2.52, yielding a mean gain of 6.30 after exposure to pre-reading activities. The control group had a pre-test mean score of 9.28 with a standard deviation of 1.76 and post-test mean score of 11.04 with a standard deviation of 0.73, yielding a mean gain of 1.76 The result indicated that students in the experimental group had a higher mean gain score after exposure to pre-reading activities than those in the control group who were not given treatment. The mean gain difference was 4.54 in favour of the experimental group. This means that pre-reading activities did increase the students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

Hypotheses Hypothesis One

There is no significant difference between the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups.

Analysis of variance (ANCOVA) was employed in testing the null hypothesis on the pre-test and post-test literal achievement mean score of Secondary School Students in the experimental and control groups. This is presented in Table 3.

Table 3: ANCOVA Result on Pretest and Posttest Literal Comprehension Achievement Mean Scores of SSII Students in the Experimental and Control Groups

Source	Type II Sum of Squares	df	Mean Square	F	Sig.	Partial Squared	Eta
Corrected Model	728.256^a	2	364.128	1053.624	.000	.955
Intercept	53.294	1	53.294	154.210	.000	.607
Achievement	194.150	1	194.150	561.783	.000	.849
Group	564.002	1	564.002	1631.971	.000	.942
Error	34.560	100	.346
Total	17782.000	103
Corrected Total	762.816	102

a. R Squared = .955 (Adjusted R Squared = .954)

The data were subjected to analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) having experimental and control groups to determine if a significant difference exists in the pre-test and post-test literal comprehension achievement mean scores of SS II students in reading comprehension in the experimental and control groups. Table 3 shows that F (1, 100) = 1631.971, P < 0.05. Since the p-value of .000 is less than the 0.05 level of significance, the null hypothesis was rejected. This indicates that, there was a significant effect of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in the experimental group. The result further reveals an adjusted R squared value of .954 which means that 95.4 percent of the variation in the dependent variable which is students’ literal achievement is explained by variation in the treatment of pre-reading activities while the remaining is due to other factors not included in this study. Hence, we can say that pre-reading activities does improve students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

Hypothesis Two

There is no significant difference between the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SSII students in the experimental and control groups.

Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was employed in testing the null hypothesis on the pre-test and post-test mean scores inferential comprehension achievement of Secondary School Students in the experimental and control groups. This is presented in Table 4.

Table 4: ANCOVA Result on Pretest and Posttest Inferential Comprehension Achievement Mean Scores of SSII Students in the Experimental and Control Groups

Source	Type II Sum of Squares	df	Mean Square	F	Sig.	Partial Squared	Eta
Corrected Model	845.617^a	2	422.808	298.334	.000	.856
Intercept	87.861	1	87.861	61.995	.000	.383
Achievement	191.876	1	191.876	135.388	.000	.575
Group	536.714	1	536.714	378.706	.000	.791
Error	141.723	100	1.417
Total	19584.000	103
Corrected Total	987.340	102

a. R Squared = .856 (Adjusted R Squared = .854)

The data were subjected to analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) having experimental and control groups to determine if a significant difference exists in the pre-test and post-test inferential comprehension achievement mean scores of SS II students in reading comprehension in the experimental and control groups. Table 4 shows that F (1, 100) = 378.706, P < 0.05. Since the p-value of .000 is less than the 0.05 level of significance, the null hypothesis was rejected. This indicates that, there was a significant effect of pre-reading activities on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in the experimental group. The result further reveals an adjusted R squared value of .854 which means that 85.4 percent of the variation in the dependent variable which is students’ inferential achievement is explained by variation in the treatment of pre-reading activities while the remaining is due to other factors not included in this study. Hence, we can say that pre-reading activities does improve students’ achievement in reading comprehension.

Discussion

The results from research question one revealed that literal comprehension skill of both control and experimental groups were mostly in the poor category at pretest. After treatment, however, the literal comprehension skill of the experimental group showed significant improvement in the literal comprehension skill of students in the control group. This finding is in consonance with Osei (2016), Nurdima (2018)), who found that pre-reading activities are essential for giving students the fundamental knowledge they need about texts, piquing their interest in reading texts, and keeping them in a reading environment throughout their formal learning stage. Results obtained from research question two showed that both control and experimental groups recorded low scores in inferential comprehension achievement test at pretest as both groups had high percentage of students in poor category. At posttest, the experimental group increased in inferential comprehension skills while the control group did not improve significantly. This finding supports the research of Paul and Christopher (2017) who found out that Inferential skill helps the students to realize the hidden concepts and the unstated relationship between the lines in a text and it is concerned with the ability of students to understand meaning that is not explicitly stated or explained in the text. Result from hypothesis one as presented on table 2 revealed that the experimental group improved in their literal comprehension scores after treatment unlike the control group which did not improve as indicated by the posttest. It means that pre-reading activities had effect on senior secondary students’ achievement in reading comprehension in the experimental group than the control group. Finding from hypothesis two showed that the inferential comprehension achievement scores of the experimental group did significantly better than the control group after posttest when reading a text. Inferential comprehension is higher cognitive level of comprehension and it can only be attained when pre-reading activities are employed This view was corroborated by Naranjo (2021) who opined that; since inferential comprehension requires readers to read between the lines’ It is more challenging comprehension task. The results also agree with the views Agbevivi (2022) and Ramli, (2019) who agree that, comprehension strategies like prior knowledge for text content which are fundamental factors in gaining comprehension should be taught intentionally to learners.

Conclusion

Pre-reading activity is the activity used to elicit students’ prior knowledge to the actual reading material. The activity is intended to provide students with required background knowledge that will be needed to have a better comprehension when they interact with a text. Pre-reading has to do with what a learner brings to the reading which can affect how he/she understands what he reads. Pre-reading activities is, therefore, an effective strategy of teaching reading comprehension because of its gains it yielded to students in the experimental group. This study has established the fact that pre-reading activities have significant effects on students’ reading comprehension achievement. When the right strategy and activity are employed to teach reading comprehension among students, the number of failures would be reduced drastically. Based on the significant gains recorded by the experimental group at posttest as compared to the control group whose posttest scores did not significantly improve, it is clear from the findings that pre-reading activities can have impact on the students’ reading comprehension achievement. Findings from the study also established that the gain scores which reflected on the experimental group was a result of the use of pre-reading activities.

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An Autoregressive Moving Average Model for Short-Term Prediction of Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes Among Farmers in Benue State

Citation

Agada, J., Kuhe, D. A., & Anthony, O. N. (2026). An Autoregressive Moving Average Model for Short-Term Prediction of Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes Among Farmers in Benue State. International Journal of Research, 13(4), 255–278. https://doi.org/10.26643/ijr/edupub/22Style

APA

John Agada¹, David Adugh Kuhe² and Ojochegbe Noah Anthony^3*

¹Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Rev, Fr. Moses Orshio Adasu University Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria

²Department of Statistics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria

³Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Rev, Fr. Moses Orshio Adasu University Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria

Corresponding Author: Email: davidkuhe@gmail.com; Tel: 2348064842229

ABSTRACT

This study employs an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model to forecast the short-term incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (Type 2 Diabetes) among farmers in Benue State, Nigeria. The data was collected from the Benue State Epidemiological Unit, Makurdi, and covered a 20-year period from January 2005 to June 2025. The study employed descriptive statistics and normality measures, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and ARMA (p,q) model as the principal analytical techniques and procedures used to examine the data. The descriptive statistics indicated moderate variability in diabetes cases over the years, while the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirmed the stationarity of the series in level. Model choice based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and Hannan–Quinn Criterion (HQC) identified the ARMA(3,3) model as the best fit for forecasting diabetic cases in the study area. The model’s high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.8905) and statistically significant parameters (p < 0.05) demonstrated its robustness and predictive accuracy. Diagnostic checks using autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation, and the Ljung–Box Q-statistics showed that the residuals behaved like white noise, indicating a well-specified model. Forecast evaluations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) confirmed that the model accurately good for predicting out-of-sample values. The forecast for July 2025 to June 2027 revealed a potential average of approximately 6,420 diabetes cases per month among farmers, with expected fluctuations over time. The study underscored the growing public health concern of diabetes among the farming population in Benue State and its implications for agricultural productivity and postharvest losses. The study concluded that predictive modeling can serve as a vital tool for health planners to design early intervention strategies, integrate health management with agricultural development, and enhance the overall well-being of rural farmers.

Keywords: Diabetes, ARIMA, Time Series Forecasting, Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes, Farmers, Benue State, Public Health, Postharvest Losses

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus, often simply referred to as diabetes, is a group of metabolic disorders characterized by high blood sugar levels over a prolonged period. The two main types of diabetes are type-1 diabetes, which results from the body’s inability to produce insulin, and Type-2 diabetes develops when the body either becomes resistant to insulin or produces insufficient insulin to control blood sugar levels effectively. Diabetes mellitus is a multifaceted metabolic condition marked by high concentrations of glucose (sugar) in the bloodstream Glucose is a crucial source of energy for cells, and insulin, a hormone produced by the pancreas, plays a central role in regulating its uptake into cells. In diabetes mellitus, this regulation is disrupted, leading to persistent hyperglycemia (high blood sugar) (American Diabetes Association, 2022).

Diabetes mellitus is a significant public health concern worldwide, with its prevalence increasing steadily over the past few decades. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF, 2019), an estimated 537 million adults aged 20-79 years were living with diabetes globally in 2021 and this number is projected to rise to 783 million by 2045. The prevalence of diabetes varies by region, with higher rates observed in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in urban areas undergoing rapid socioeconomic development and lifestyle changes. (ADA, 2022).

In Nigeria, the prevalence is estimated at 7% and 11.35% in South-south zone. The Diabetes Association of Nigeria (DAN) reviewed that, mortality rate of diabetes from insufficient management far outweighs that of HIV/AIDs, Malaria and Cancer (Olamoyegun et al., 2024)

Diabetes mellitus is significantly Impacting farmers in Benue State with prevalence rate among yam farming population estimated at 24.9% and mortality rate of 8.61% and as led to reduced labor productivity, economic impact and health complications (Teran, A.D.. 2017)

Diabetes is associated with numerous complications that can affect nearly every organ system in the body. These complications includes Microvascular: Retinopathy (vision loss) neuropathy (nerve damage), nephropathy (kidney damage), and Microvascular: cardiovascular disease (such as heart attack and stroke), others are foot ulcers and amputations. The burden of diabetes-related complications is substantial, leading to increased medical costs, reduced quality of life, and higher risk of premature mortality (ADA, 2022).

Type-2 diabetes, also known as non-insulin dependent diabetes, is a long-term condition that affects how the body processes sugar (glucose), which is an important source of energy. In this condition, the body either becomes resistant to insulin, a hormone that helps move sugar into cells, or doesn’t produce enough insulin to keep blood sugar levels normal (Sun et al., 2021). Unlike type-1 diabetes, where the immune system attacks and destroys insulin-producing cells in the pancreas, type-2 diabetes usually develops slowly over time. While it was once mostly seen in adults, more children and teenagers are now being diagnosed, largely due to increasing obesity and less active lifestyles (Sun et al., 2021).

A major characteristic of type-2 diabetes is insulin resistance, which means the body’s cells don’t respond to insulin as they should. When this happens, the pancreas tries to make more insulin to help move sugar into the cells. However, over time, the pancreas may struggle to keep up with this increased demand. As a result, sugar starts to accumulate in the blood, causing high blood sugar levels (Cloete, 2022).

Several determinants contributes to the risk of developing type-2 diabetes, including obesity, particularly excess fat around the abdomen (central obesity), A sedentary lifestyle, unhealthy eating habits—like eating too many sugary and processed foods—having a family history of diabetes, getting older (especially after 45), and belonging to certain ethnic groups are all factors that can increase the risk of developing diabetes (ADA, 2022).

In Addition to insulin resistance, type-2 diabetes can also involve problems with the pancreas, the organ that makes insulin. Sometimes, the pancreas doesn’t produce enough insulin to keep blood sugar levels in check, making high blood sugar worse (Desai & Deshmukh, 2020).

Symptoms of type-2 diabetes often develop slowly and can include increased thirst, frequent urination, fatigue, blurred vision, slow wound healing, and repeated infections. In the early stages, some people may not notice any symptoms at all, which is why regular screenings are essential (IDF, 2019).

Treatment for type-2 diabetes aims to maintain blood sugar levels within a target range to prevent serious health problems and complications. This typically involves lifestyle modifications such as regular exercise, healthy eating habits (including portion control and selecting nutrient-rich foods), weight management, and monitoring blood sugar levels. (Desai & Deshmukh, 2020).

The management and treatment of type-2 diabetes can impose financial burdens on individuals, families, and healthcare systems. In regions where healthcare costs are primarily borne by the individual or are not adequately covered by insurance, the expenses associated with diabetes care can divert resources away from agricultural investments and productivity-enhancing measures. This can directly impact agricultural communities with reduced investment into agricultural produces, reduced income and crop loss thereby affecting their livelihood (Huang et al., 2016).

Diabetes Mellitus is diagnosed when certain blood sugar levels are met or exceeded. Specifically, a person may be diagnosed if their A1C is 6.5% or higher, which reflects average blood glucose over the past few months. Alternatively, if fasting blood sugar is 126 mg/dL or higher, or if a 2-hour blood sugar reading during an oral glucose tolerance test reaches 200 mg/dL or more, a diagnosis may be made. Additionally, if an individual has a random blood sugar of 200 mg/dL or higher along with symptoms like excessive thirst, frequent urination, or unexplained weight loss, they may also be diagnosed with diabetes (Jaeger et al., 2025).

Agricultural activities, like applying chemical fertilizers and pesticides, can have environmental consequences that can indirectly impact diabetes risk factors. For instance, exposure to chemicals such as glyphosate or organophosphates used in farming has been associated with a higher likelihood of developing metabolic disorders. Additionally, environmental factors such as air pollution and climate change may exacerbate diabetes risk factors and health outcomes, potentially affecting agricultural productivity and crop yields (whiting et al., 2011). Overall, while the direct impact of type-2 diabetes on agricultural productivity and postharvest losses may be limited, the interplay between diabetes, dietary patterns, healthcare access, and environmental factors can have broader implications for agricultural communities and food systems. Addressing the complex relationship between health, agriculture, and the environment requires a holistic approach that considers socioeconomic factors, public health interventions, and sustainable agricultural practices (Whiting et al., 2011).

Overall, while the direct impact of type-2 diabetes on agricultural productivity and postharvest losses may be limited, the interplay between diabetes, dietary patterns, healthcare access, and environmental factors can have broader implications for agricultural communities and food systems. Addressing the complex relationship between health, agriculture, and the environment requires a holistic approach that considers socioeconomic factors, public health interventions, and sustainable agricultural practices (Huang et al., 2016).

This study therefore attempts to extend the existing literature and contribute to the existing body of knowledge by modeling and forecasting non insulin dependent diabetes among farmers in Benue State using autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) time series model with more recent data.

2.0 MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1 Method of Data Collection

The data utilized in this research work are monthly secondary time series data on morbidity incidence of type-2 diabetes in Benue state for the period of January, 2005 June, 2025 making a total of 234 observations. The data was collected from Benue State Epidemiological unit, Makurdi. The data was transformed to natural logarithms using the following formula:

where is the confirmed type-2 diabetes series observation indexed by time , while is the natural logarithm. Hence forth will be regarded as a series.

2.2 Methods of Data Analysis

Find below the statistical tools employed in the analysis of data in this work.

3.2.1 Descriptive statistics and normality measures

The mean of any given set of data can be computed as follows:

The sample standard deviation of any given set of data over a given period of time is computed using the formula:

where is the sample mean, is the sample size.

Jarque-Bera test is a normality test of whether a given sample data have the skewness and kurtosis similar to that of a normal distribution. The test was proposed by Jarque and Bera (1980, 1987) and test the null hypothesis that the series is normally distributed. Given any data set, the test statistic JB is defined as:

where is the sample skewness denoted as:

and is the sample kurtosis given below:

whereT is the total number of observations. The JB normality test checks the following pair of hypothesis:

and (i.e., follows a normal distribution)

and (i.e., does not follows a normal distribution).

The test rejects the null hypothesis if the p-value of the JB test statistic is less than level of significance.

2.2.2 Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test

The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test helps to identify if a time series is stationary or has a unit root, indicating a persistent trend over time (Dickey and Fuller, 1979).

It accounts for higher-order correlations by assuming the series follows an AR(p) process and incorporates lagged differences of the series into the regression to enhance the test’s precision.

where are optional exogenous regressors which may consist of constant, or a constant and trend, and are parameters to be estimated,β values arelagged difference terms and the are assumed to be white noise. The null and alternative hypotheses are written as:

(8)

and evaluated using the conventional ratio for

where is the estimate of and “the coefficient standard error is denoted as “

2.2.3 Portmanteau test

A Portmanteau test also called he Ljung-Box Q-statistic test is used to determine whether there is any remaining serial correlation or autocorrelation in the residuals of a time series. The test checks the following pairs of hypotheses:

(all lags correlations are zero)

(there is at least one lag with non-zero correlation). The test statistic is given by:

where

denotes the autocorrelation estimate of squared standardized residuals at lags. T is the sample size, Q is the sample autocorrelation at lag k. We reject if p-value is less than level of significance (Ljung and Box, 1979).

2.3 Time Series Models Specification

To specify an ARIMA model which is the model framework use in this study, we first specify autoregressive (AR) model, moving average (MA) model, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model before specifying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. These models are specified as follows.

2.3.1 The autoregressive (AR) model

A stochastic time series process {} is an autoregressive process of order p, denoted AR() if it satisfied the difference equation

where is a white noise and are constants to be determined.

2.3.2 Moving average (MA) model

A time series {} which satisfies the difference equation

where are fixed constants with as white noise is called a moving average process of order q, denoted MA().

2.3.3 Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model

A stochastic time series process {} which results from a linear combination of autoregressive and moving average processes is called an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process of order p, q, denoted ARMA () if it satisfies the following difference equation:

where are fixed constants associated with the AR terms and are fixed constants associated with the MA terms with being a white noise. The stationarity of an ARMA () process is guaranteed if the roots of the polynomial

lie outside the unit circle.

An ARMA () model is specified as:

2.3.4 Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model

Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) or Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model in which differences have been taken are collectively called Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average or ARIMA models. A time series {} is said to follow an integrated autoregressive moving average model if the ^th difference is a stationary ARMA process. If follows an ARMA(p, q) model, we say that {} is an ARIMA (p, d, q) process. For practical purposes, we can usually take or at most 2.

Consider then an ARIMA (p, 1, q) process, with , we have

In terms of the observed series,

)

2.4 Model Order Selection

We use the following information criteria for model order selection in conjunction with log likelihood function: Akaike information criterion (AIC) due to Akaike (1978), Schwarz information Criterion (SIC) due to (Schwarz, 1978) and Hannan-Quinn information Criterion (HQC) due to (Hannan, 1980). The formula for the information criteria are:

where is the number of free parameters to be estimated in the model, T is the number of observations and L is the likelihood function defined as:

Thus given a set of estimated ARMA models for a given set of data, the preferred model is the one with the minimum information criteria and maximum log likelihood.

2.5 Model Forecast Evaluation

We employed Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) accuracy measures to select an optimal model mode that is both parsimonious and accurately forecast the data based on minimum values of the accuracy measures.

2.5.1 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

The Root Mean Square Error is a statistical tool for measuring the accuracy of a forecast method. It is computed as:

Where is the forecast value of the series and is the actual series and is the number of forecast observations.

2.5.2 Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

The mean absolute error (MAE) is a statistical tool for measuring the average size of the errors in a collection of predictions, without taking their directions into account. It is measured as the average absolute difference between the predicted values and the actual values and is used to assess the effectiveness of a model. It is given as:

where” is the actual value of the series at time is the forecasted value of the series and is the number of observations. The lower the value of RMSE and MAE, the better the model is able to forecast future values.

3.0 RESULTS AND DISC0USSION

3.1 Summary Statistics and Normality Measures

This study seeks to provide a short-term prediction of non-insulin-dependent diabetes (Type-2 diabetes mellitus) among farmers in Benue State using the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model. Before model estimation, a preliminary analysis of the dataset was conducted to summarize its key characteristics and assess the normality of the distribution. Table 1 below presents the descriptive statistics and normality test results for the observed monthly diabetes cases.

Table 1: Summary Statistics and Normality Measures

Variable	Statistic
Mean	5571.321
Maximum	9661.00
Minimum	3624.000
Standard Deviation	1769.088
Skewness	0.010212
Kurtosis	1.767498
Jarque-Bera Statistic	15.57465
p-value	0.000415
Number of Observations	246

From the result of summary statistics and normality measures reported in Table 1 above, the mean value of approximately 5571 infection cases indicates the average number of recorded non-insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers during the study period, while the maximum and minimum values (9661 and 3624, respectively) show the range of variation in the data. The standard deviation (1769) suggests a relatively high level of fluctuation around the mean, implying moderate variability in the monthly incidence of diabetes cases.

The skewness value (0.010212), being close to zero, indicates that the distribution of the series is approximately symmetric. However, the kurtosis value (1.767498) is less than 3, signifying a platykurtic distribution, that is, the data are relatively flatter than a normal distribution with lighter tails.

The Jarque–Bera statistic (15.57465) with an associated p-value of 0.000415 is statistically significant at the 1% level, leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis of normality. This implies that the series does not follow a perfectly normal distribution, which is a common characteristic of real-world time series data.

Overall, the results suggest that while the data are fairly symmetric, they deviate slightly from normality, a factor to be considered when fitting and diagnosing the ARMA model for accurate short-term forecasting.

4.2 Graphical Examination of Diabetes Miletus Series

Examining the morbidity cases of diabetes mellitus is essential for identifying trends and patterns over time, which can provide insights into the progression and fluctuations of the disease within a population. By analyzing these visual representations, healthcare providers and policymakers can better understand peak periods, seasonal variations, and the impact of interventions. This information is crucial for planning targeted healthcare responses, optimizing resource allocation, and developing strategies to reduce disease incidence and manage complications, ultimately improving health outcomes for affected populations. The time plots of the level and log transform series of diabetes mellitus are plotted in Figures 1 and 2 respectively as shown below.

The time plots of the level series and log transformed series reported in Figures 1 and 2 below indicate that both series are covariance or weakly stationary which implies the absence of unit root in the series in level. This is indicated by the smooth trend of both series.

Figure 1: Time Series Plot of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from 2005 to 2025

Figure 2: Time Series Plot of Natural Log of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from 2005

to 2025

4.3 Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test Result

To ensure the appropriateness of applying an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for short-term prediction of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, it is necessary to examine the time series properties of the data. A key requirement for ARMA modeling is that the underlying series must be stationary. Therefore, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test was conducted to determine whether the series is stationary. Table 2 below presents the results of the ADF test under two specifications: with an intercept only, and with both intercept and trend.

The ADF statistics reported in Table 2 below for both model specifications (intercept only and intercept with trend) are -15.3344 and -15.4304, respectively. These values are far more negative than their corresponding 5% critical values (-2.8731 and -3.4283). In addition, the associated p-values are 0.0000, indicating strong statistical significance. Because the ADF test statistics are well below the critical values and the p-values are less than 0.05, the null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected under both model specifications. This confirms that the series stationary in its level form. Stationarity implies that the mean and variance of the diabetes case series remain stable over time, making it suitable for direct ARMA modeling without differencing. The strong evidence of stationarity enhances the reliability of subsequent short-term forecasts produced by the ARMA model.

Table 2: Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test Result

Variable	Option	ADF Test Statistic	p-value	5% Critical Value
	Intercept only	-15.3344	0.0000	-2.8731
	Intercept & Trend	-15.4304	0.0000	-3.4283

4.4 Autocorrelations and Partial Autocorrelations Functions of the Series

After confirming that the series of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State is stationary, the next step in the ARMA modeling process involves examining the autocorrelation structure of the series. The Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) are used to identify the dependence pattern between current and past observations, which guides the selection of appropriate autoregressive (AR) and moving-average (MA) orders.

Furthermore, the Ljung-Box Q-statistics were computed to test for the joint significance of autocorrelations up to various lags. This test determines whether the residuals are independently distributed — a key requirement for model adequacy. Table 3 below presents the ACF, PACF, and Ljung-Box Q-statistics results for the series while Figure 3 belowpresented the ACF and PACF plots of the series.

The results of ACF and PACF reported in Table 3 below and Figure 3 show that the autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) coefficients for all lags are small in magnitude, fluctuating around zero. This indicates the absence of significant serial correlation in the data. None of the autocorrelations exceed the approximate 95% confidence bounds (±0.1 for a large sample size of 246), suggesting that the time series behaves like a white-noise process.

The Ljung-Box Q-statistics and their corresponding p-values across all lags (p > 0.05) further confirm that there is no significant autocorrelation remaining in the residuals. This means that the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation cannot be rejected at any lag, implying that the series is adequately described by a stationary stochastic process (Ljung & Box, 1979).

Table 3: Autocorrelations and Ljung-Box Q-Statistics Test Results

Lag	ACF	PACF	Q-Statistics	p-value
1	0.014	0.014	0.0458	0.831
2	-0.019	-0.019	0.1338	0.935
3	0.004	0.005	0.1380	0.987
4	-0.049	-0.050	0.7497	0.945
5	0.022	0.024	0.8747	0.972
6	0.037	0.034	1.2165	0.976
7	0.022	0.023	1.3420	0.987
8	0.017	0.015	1.4126	0.994
9	-0.007	-0.005	1.4260	0.998
10	-0.110	-0.107	4.5659	0.918
11	-0.025	-0.022	4.7227	0.944
12	0.078	0.075	6.2944	0.901
13	-0.008	-0.012	6.3115	0.934
14	-0.017	-0.027	6.3907	0.956
15	0.052	0.055	7.0970	0.955
16	-0.035	-0.022	7.4226	0.964
17	-0.012	-0.008	7.4599	0.977
18	-0.088	-0.093	9.5213	0.946
19	-0.054	-0.050	10.302	0.945
20	-0.092	-0.114	12.567	0.895
21	-0.026	-0.032	12.750	0.917
22	-0.115	-0.115	16.369	0.797
23	0.007	0.008	16.381	0.838
24	-0.053	-0.074	17.165	0.842
25	-0.056	-0.036	18.032	0.841
26	-0.047	-0.056	18.643	0.851
27	0.055	0.057	19.482	0.852
28	-0.011	-0.032	19.514	0.882
29	0.060	0.057	20.511	0.876
30	0.056	0.042	21.381	0.876
31	0.040	0.061	21.828	0.888
32	-0.001	-0.015	21.828	0.912
33	-0.027	-0.007	22.036	0.927
34	-0.109	-0.121	25.432	0.855
35	-0.056	-0.074	26.342	0.854
36	0.066	0.025	27.604	0.841

Figure 3: Plots of ACF and PACF of Log Transformed Series

Collectively, these findings suggest that the series is not driven by persistent temporal dependence, and any ARMA model fitted to the data should yield uncorrelated and well-behaved residuals. Therefore, the dataset is suitable for ARMA model identification and estimation, and the absence of significant autocorrelation validates the appropriateness of proceeding with short-term forecasting using the ARMA framework.

4.5 Model Order Selection

Following the establishment of stationarity and the absence of significant autocorrelation in the diabetes time series, various ARMA model orders were estimated to determine the most parsimonious and best-fitting specification for short-term prediction. Model selection was based on several statistical criteria, including the Log Likelihood (LogL), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and Hannan–Quinn Criterion (HQC). Generally, the preferred model is the one with the highest Log Likelihood and the lowest values of AIC, SIC, and HQC. Table 4 below presents the results of the model order selection process.

Among the twenty-four ARMA model specifications estimated, the ARMA(3,3) model exhibits the highest Log Likelihood value (-24.0103) and the lowest AIC (0.2552), SIC (0.3159), and HQC (0.2958) values. These results indicate that the ARMA(3,3) model provides the best balance between goodness-of-fit and parsimony.

Table 4:Model Order Selection using Log Likelihood and Information Criteria

S/n	Model	LogL	AIC	SIC	HQC
1.	ARMA(0,1)	-34.4597	0.2964	0.3349	0.3079
2.	ARMA(1,0)	-34.8194	0.3006	0.3391	0.3121
3.	ARMA(1,1)	-32.9444	0.2934	0.3363	0.3107
4.	ARMA(0,2)	-34.4107	0.3042	0.3469	0.3214
5.	ARMA(2,0)	-35.1256	0.3125	0.3555	0.3298
6.	ARMA(1,2)	-32.9256	0.3014	0.3586	0.3245
7.	ARMA(2,1)	-33.2988	0.3057	0.3631	0.3288
8.	ARMA(2,2)	-30.3771	0.2899	0.3616	0.3188
9.	ARMA(0,3)	-34.4060	0.3122	0.3692	0.3352
10.	ARMA(3,0)	-35.4688	0.3248	0.3823	0.3480
11.	ARMA(1,3)	-28.0912	0.2701	0.3616	0.3089
12.	ARMA(3,1)	-32.9028	0.3119	0.3838	0.3409
13.	ARMA(2,3)	-30.3708	0.2981	0.3841	0.3328
14.	ARMA(3,2)	-30.5304	0.3007	0.3859	0.3354
15.	ARMA(3,3)**	-24.0103	0.2552	0.3159	0.2958
16.	ARMA(0,4)	-34.1157	0.3180	0.3893	0.3467
17.	ARMA(4,0)	-35.3492	0.3335	0.4056	0.3625
18.	ARMA(1,4)	-34.4466	0.3302	0.4159	0.3647
19.	ARMA(4,1)	-35.3432	0.3417	0.4282	0.3765
20.	ARMA(2,4)	-32.0099	0.3198	0.4201	0.3602
21.	ARMA(4,2)	-26.7027	0.2785	0.3795	0.3192
22.	ARMA(3,4)	-25.4065	0.2799	0.3899	0.3213
23.	ARMA(4,3)	-33.4797	0.3428	0.4581	0.3893
24.	ARMA(4,4)	-31.4253	0.2962	0.4060	0.3285

Therefore, based on the information criteria, the ARMA(3,3) model is selected as the optimal model for forecasting short-term variations in non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State. This suggests that both autoregressive and moving average components up to the third order significantly contribute to capturing the dynamic structure of the series.

4.6 Parameter Estimates of ARMA(3,3) Model

After selecting the ARMA(3,3) model as the optimal specification based on the information criteria, the model parameters were estimated to evaluate the dynamic relationship between past observations and random disturbances in the series of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State. Table 5 below presents the estimated coefficients of the ARMA(3,3) model, along with their corresponding standard errors, t-statistics, and p-values. Goodness-of-fit measures such as the R-squared, Adjusted R-squared, F-statistic, and Durbin–Watson statistic are also reported to assess the adequacy of the fitted model.

Table 5: Parameter Estimates of ARMA(3,3) Model

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	p-value
C	8.768664	0.017218	509.2761	0.0000
AR(1)	0.366096	0.024641	14.85713	0.0000
AR(2)	0.311203	0.029382	10.59171	0.0000
AR(3)	-0.912359	0.024212	-37.68166	0.0000
MA(1)	-0.372828	0.009593	-38.86277	0.0000
MA(2)	-0.386923	0.009312	-41.55086	0.0000
MA(3)	0.982389	0.007644	128.5160	0.0000
R-squared	0.890511		AIC	0.255229
Adjusted R²	0.867389		SIC	0.315852
F-statistic	6.914400		HQC	0.295759
Prob(F-stat.)	0.000951		Durbin-Watson stat.	2.011502

The model estimation results reported in Table 5 show that all autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) coefficients are statistically significant at the 1% level, as indicated by their very low p-values (p < 0.01). This implies that past values and past error terms up to the third lag significantly influence the current level of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers.

Specifically, the positive coefficients of AR(1) and AR(2) suggest a direct persistence effect, meaning that increases in diabetes cases in the immediate past periods tend to raise current cases. Conversely, the negative AR(3) coefficient indicates a corrective mechanism, implying that after about three periods, the series tends to revert toward its mean. The MA terms also show alternating positive and negative signs, suggesting that short-term shocks have both dampening and amplifying effects over time before dissipating.

The high R-squared (0.8905) and adjusted R-squared (0.8674) values indicate that approximately 89% of the variation in diabetes cases is explained by the model, signifying a very good fit. The F-statistic (6.9144) with a significant probability value (0.000951) confirms the overall significance of the model.The Durbin–Watson statistic (2.0115) is close to 2, suggesting the absence of serial correlation in the residuals, while the information criteria (AIC = 0.2552, SIC = 0.3159, HQC = 0.2958) reaffirm that the ARMA(3,3) model remains the most parsimonious and efficient choice.

Overall, the ARMA(3,3) model adequately captures the temporal dynamics and short-term fluctuations in non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, making it suitable for reliable short-term forecasting.

4.7 Model Diagnostic Checks

Following the estimation of the ARMA(3,3) model for predicting non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, diagnostic checks such as multicolinearity test and Ljung-Box Q-statistic tests were conducted to verify the adequacy of the fitted model. This assessment ensures that the residuals behave like white noise, uncorrelated, homoscedastic, and pattern-free over time. The test are presented in the following subsections.

4.7.1 Multicolinearity test result

Multicollinearity diagnostics were performed to make sure the variables in ARMA(3,3) model weren’t overlapping too much. Using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) for each autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) term, the test assessed how multicollinearity might affect the stability and reliability of parameter estimates. Generally, VIF values above 10 indicate severe multicollinearity, values between 5 and 10 suggest moderate correlation, and values below 5 imply no serious concern. The results presented in Table 6 show both uncentered and centered VIF statistics for the ARMA(3,3) model parameters.

The results of multicolinearity test reported in Table 6 below reveal that all centered VIF values are considerably low, ranging between 1.11 and 2.55, which are far below the critical threshold of 10. This indicates that there is no serious multicollinearity among the explanatory variables (AR and MA terms) in the estimated ARMA(3,3) model.

Therefore, the estimated parameters are statistically reliable, and the standard errors are not inflated by multicollinearity. This implies that the ARMA (3,3) model is well-conditioned, and the coefficients can be interpreted with confidence.

Table 6: Test for Multicolinearity (Variance Inflation Factors)

	Coefficient	Uncentered	Centered
Variable	Variance	VIF	VIF
C	0.000296	1.018813	Na
AR(1)	0.000607	1.779456	1.779044
AR(2)	0.000863	2.552345	2.552344
AR(3)	0.000586	1.768375	1.768101
MA(1)	9.20E-05	1.257613	1.255458
MA(2)	8.67E-05	1.213557	1.203709
MA(3)	5.84E-05	1.121942	1.111356

4.7.2 Ljung-Box Q-statistic test result for serial correlation

The Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), and Ljung–Box Q-statistics were used to test for serial correlation. High p-values (greater than 0.05) for the Q-statistics indicate no significant autocorrelation, suggesting that the residuals are random and the model is well specified. Table 5 presents these diagnostic test results for the ARMA(3,3) model residuals.

The results of Q-statistic reported in Table 5 and the ACF as well as PACF plots reported in Figure 4 show that all residual autocorrelations (ACF and PACF) are very small and fluctuate closely around zero across all 36 lags. None of the autocorrelation coefficients appear significant, suggesting that the residuals from the ARMA(3,3) model are approximately white noise.

Furthermore, the Ljung–Box Q-statistics have p-values consistently greater than 0.05, indicating that the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation cannot be rejected at any lag. This confirms that there is no statistically significant serial correlation remaining in the residuals. In addition, the Durbin–Watson statistic from the model estimation (2.0115) supports this conclusion by indicating near-zero autocorrelation in the residuals.

Overall, these diagnostic results confirm that the ARMA(3,3) model is well specified, the residuals are independently and randomly distributed, and the model provides a statistically adequate fit to the data. Therefore, the model is suitable for reliable short-term forecasting of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State

Table 7: Autocorrelations and Ljung-Box Q-Statistic Test Results of Residuals

Lag	ACF	PACF	Q-Statistics	p-value
1	-0.024	-0.024	0.1415	0.707
2	-0.012	-0.012	0.1760	0.916
3	-0.069	-0.070	1.3558	0.716
4	0.007	0.003	1.3669	0.850
5	-0.126	-0.128	5.3247	0.378
6	-0.036	-0.048	5.6541	0.463
7	-0.017	-0.024	5.7294	0.572
8	0.142	0.124	10.812	0.213
9	-0.042	-0.042	11.254	0.259
10	0.046	0.032	11.802	0.299
11	-0.021	-0.015	11.918	0.370
12	0.052	0.044	12.628	0.397
13	-0.025	0.012	12.794	0.464
14	-0.009	-0.008	12.815	0.541
15	0.062	0.080	13.804	0.540
16	0.068	0.053	15.019	0.523
17	0.112	0.147	18.316	0.369
18	0.109	0.127	21.475	0.256
19	-0.008	0.027	21.493	0.310
20	-0.087	-0.066	23.529	0.264
21	-0.066	-0.032	24.707	0.260
22	-0.020	0.010	24.810	0.306
23	-0.062	-0.057	25.855	0.308
24	-0.048	-0.064	26.480	0.329
25	0.021	-0.044	26.599	0.376
26	0.020	-0.037	26.704	0.425
27	-0.033	-0.069	27.003	0.464
28	0.065	0.050	28.156	0.456
29	0.052	0.030	28.898	0.470
30	0.062	0.046	29.969	0.467
31	0.014	0.040	30.023	0.516
32	0.010	0.016	30.053	0.565
33	0.042	0.050	30.555	0.589
34	0.003	0.004	30.558	0.637
35	-0.039	-0.013	30.994	0.662
36	-0.008	-0.001	31.014	0.705

Figure 4:Plot of Correlogram of Residuals of Estimated ARMA(3,3) Model

4.8 Forecast and Forecast Evaluation

To evaluate the predictive performance of the ARMA(3,3) model in forecasting non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State, forecast accuracy measures were computed. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used to assess both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Lower values of these statistics indicate better model performance and predictive reliability. The result is presented in Table 8.

The results of forecast comparison reported in Table 8below show that the out-of-sample forecast achieved slightly lower RMSE (0.2671), MAE (0.2310), and MAPE (2.6490) values compared to the in-sample forecast (RMSE = 0.2715, MAE = 0.2446, MAPE = 2.6781). This suggests that the ARMA(3,3) model demonstrates strong predictive capability, with minimal forecast error and good generalization performance. The model selected in forecast mode, as denoted by the accuracy measures, provides reliable short-term out-of-sample predictions of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases.

Table 8: Forecast Comparison using Accuracy Measures

	RMSE	MAE	MAPE
In-Sample	0.271510	0.244615	2.678116
Out-of-Sample**	0.267100	0.231048	2.649005

Note: ** denotes forecast mode selected by accuracy measures.

4.8.1 Forecast of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from July, 2025 to June, 2027

To evaluate the short-term predictive performance of the ARMA(3,3) model, forecasts of non–insulin-dependent diabetes (Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus) cases among farmers in Benue State were generated for the period July 2025 to June 2027. The forecasts were computed in natural logarithmic form and then converted to actual population estimates. For each forecast, the standard error, lower confidence limit (LCL), and upper confidence limit (UCL) were calculated at a 95% confidence level, using . These values provide a range within which the true number of diabetes cases is expected to fall with high probability, thereby indicating the reliability and uncertainty of the forecasts. The forecast result is reported in Table 9 below while the forecast graph is presented as Figure 5 below too.

Table 9: “Forecast of Diabetes Miletus Infection Cases in Benue State from July 2025-

June, 2027″

Year: Month	Forecast (natural log form)		Actual Forecast (No. of Persons)
Year: Month	Forecast	Std. error	LCL	Forecast	UCL
2025:06	6.9967	—	—	8896	—
2025:07	8.77405	0.271243	3799	6464	11000
2025:08	8.72655	0.271669	3619	6165	10499
2025:09	8.78204	0.271670	3826	6516	11098
2025:10	8.77132	0.272065	3782	6447	10988
2025:11	8.80141	0.272672	3893	6644	11337
2025:12	8.74519	0.272672	3680	6281	10717
2026:01	8.76088	0.272790	3738	6380	10889
2026:02	8.74585	0.273455	3677	6285	10741
2026:03	8.79725	0.273466	3871	6616	11308
2026:04	8.77366	0.273476	3781	6462	11044
2026:05	8.77825	0.274040	3794	6492	11107
2026:06	8.73648	0.274110	3638	6226	10654
2026:07	8.76803	0.274114	3755	6426	10996
2026:08	8.76810	0.274473	3752	6426	11005
2026:09	8.79729	0.274652	3862	6616	11335
2026:10	8.76026	0.274669	3722	6376	10923
2026:11	8.76113	0.274824	3724	6381	10936
2026:12	8.74504	0.275111	3662	6279	10767
2027:01	8.78341	0.275121	3805	6525	11188
2027:02	8.77734	0.275152	3782	6486	11121
2027:03	8.78223	0.275481	3798	6517	11183
2027:04	8.74716	0.275481	3667	6293	10798
2027:05	8.76058	0.275481	3717	6378	10944
2027:06	8.76313	0.275759	3724	6394	10978
Total	210.40663			154075
Average	8.766942917			6419.7917

Note: For 95% confidence intervals, . LCL and UCL denote lower and upper confidence limits respectively.

Figure 5: Forecast Graph of Diabetes Miletus in Benue State from July, 2025-June, 2027

The forecast results reported in Table 9 and Figure 5 above reveals that the predicted number of non–insulin-dependent diabetes cases among farmers in Benue State is expected to fluctuate moderately over the two-year forecast horizon (July 2025–June 2027). The monthly forecasts range between approximately 3,600 and 11,300 cases, with an overall average of about 6,420 cases per month and a total forecast of 154,075 cases during the study period. The relatively narrow confidence intervals across months suggest a high level of precision in the model’s predictions.

Overall, the ARMA(3,3) model demonstrates strong forecasting capability, indicating that diabetes prevalence among farmers in Benue State is likely to remain fairly stable with mild month-to-month variations over the forecast period.

4.9 Implications of the Study to Farmers and Postharvest Losses in Benue State

The implications of this study for farmers and postharvest losses in Benue State are significant from both public health and socio-economic perspectives. The findings, which forecast the prevalence of non–insulin-dependent diabetes (Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus) among farmers, suggest that a substantial portion of the agricultural workforce may experience declining health and productivity over time. Poor health conditions such as diabetes can reduce farmers’ physical capacity to engage in strenuous agricultural activities, particularly during critical periods like harvesting and processing. “This in turn increases the likelihood of postharvest losses, as crops may remain un-harvested or inadequately stored due to reduced labour efficiency and absenteeism resulting from illness”.

Moreover, “higher diabetes prevalence among farmers implies increased medical expenditures and a diversion of household income away from agricultural investment”, further compounding the problem of low productivity and waste. The study underscores the urgent need for integrated health and agricultural policies—including improved rural healthcare services, regular medical screening, health education on diet and lifestyle, and the promotion of labour-saving technologies—to mitigate the dual burden of disease and postharvest losses. Ultimately, addressing the health challenges of farmers is crucial for achieving food security, sustaining agricultural livelihoods, and enhancing overall economic resilience in Benue State.

4.0 Conclusion

The study demonstrates that the ARMA(3,3) model effectively forecasts the incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes among farmers in Benue State, Nigeria, The analysis revealed that the ARMA(3,3) model provided the best fit based on information criteria and diagnostic tests, with residuals behaving like white noise, indicating a well-specified and reliable model. The forecasts from July 2025 to June 2027 suggest a steady and relatively high incidence of diabetes cases among farmers, implying that the disease poses an ongoing public health concern within the agricultural population. This condition could adversely affect farmers’ productivity, increase medical costs, and indirectly contribute to higher postharvest losses due to reduced labour availability and inefficiencies in farm management. These findings highlight the interconnectedness between health and agricultural output, emphasizing that the burden of chronic diseases like diabetes extends beyond healthcare into the realm of food security and economic stability. Therefore, proactive health interventions and policy integration between the health and agricultural sectors are vital. Ensuring farmers’ wellness through preventive care, early detection, and education can significantly reduce the impact of diabetes and its broader economic consequences. The study provides empirical evidence to guide policymakers, healthcare providers, and agricultural development agencies in formulating context-specific strategies to improve both health outcomes and agricultural sustainability in Benue State.

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Innovative Work Behaviour, Leadership, and Performance of Public Tertiary Institutions: A Proposed Framework

Michael Olalekan Adeoti & Yabagi, Bala Ahmed

Department of Business Administration, Federal Polytechnic, Bida, Nigeria.

Abstract

The aim of this study is to propose a framework and state propositions to be tested empirically in future studies. The researcher reviewed scholarly articles on the variables with the aim of stating propositions that are in agreement with theoretical perspectives and extant literature. Drawing from social exchange theory, this study proposed that there would be a positive relationship between innovative work behaviour and performance of public tertiary institutions. Further, a positive relationship between leadership styles (transformational and ethical) and performance of public tertiary institutions is predicted. This study recommends that management of public tertiary institutions and policy makers need to pay adequate attention to enhance productivity via encouragement of positive work attitudes and display of transformational abilities by the management of public tertiary institutions. In conclusion, this paper extends research on organizational performance by proposing a model that has the tendency to create a positive improvement in public sector educational institutions. However, there is a need for empirical studies to test the proposed relationships.

Keywords: Innovative work behaviour, transformational leadership, ethical leadership, and organizational performance.

Introduction

Innovative work behavior has a significant impact on company performance, indicating that the intentional application of new ideas within a company can greatly benefit its success. Innovation plays a crucial role in attracting customers, enabling a company to adapt, thrive, and remain competitive amidst various business challenges. According to Iqbal, Abid, Contreras, Hassan, and Zafar (2020), innovative work behaviour refers to the creation, introduction, and deliberate implementation of new ideas within a work role, group, or organization, with the aim of enhancing overall performance. The importance of fostering innovative work behavior can be supported by three key principles. First, employees often identify problems and propose creative solutions. Second, individuals who thrive in their work are more energized, increasing their propensity to engage in innovative behaviors. Third, creative individuals generate solutions that can be applied to similar situations, leading to improved performance.

This theory is supported by research conducted by Bos-Nehles and Veenendaal (2019) which highlighted the significant impact of innovative work behaviour on company performance. Further, encouraging employees to engage in innovative work behavior can have a positive and profound effect on a company’s overall success.

Research has demonstrated that changes in the workplace can foster innovative work behavior. Innovation involves the introduction of new ideas, practices, procedures, and techniques to individuals, groups, and organizations (Amirudin & Nugroho, 2022). This highlights the importance of leaders as role models in establishing an ethical work environment and cultivating a strong organizational reputation. However, without the presence of innovative behaviour, there can be a negative impact on employee performance. Even innovative companies can fail to reap the benefits of their innovative practices if they are not effectively implemented. A research conducted by Iqbal et al. (2020) have found that ethical leadership does not influence company performance with innovative work behaviour serving as the mediating variable.

Similarly, leadership determines the success and failure of any organization. The world is shifting towards an economy where the essential resource of an organization is its knowledge (Popli & Rizvi, 2016). Leadership style is the manner in which people are directed and motivated by a leader to achieve organizational goals. Leadership style in an organization is one of the key factors that play significant role in enhancing or retarding the interest and commitment of the individuals in the organization (Obiwuru, Okwu, & Nwankere, 2021). The leadership style adopted by organization enhances the achievement of corporate goals.

Empirically, Ojokuku, Odetayo and Sajuyigbe (2012) observed that leadership style is one of the determinants of the success and failure of any proactive organization. Also, Lawal, Kio, and Adebayo (2000) agreed that good leadership is a condition for effective accomplishment of organizational goals and objectives. Effective leadership style of management is a pre-requisite to organizational accomplishment (Uchenwamgbe, 2013). All over the world, organizations attribute their successes to leadership efficiency, that is, the leadership style of the supervisors has a considerable effect on organizational performance (Sun, 2019).

In a study conducted by McGrath and MacMillan (2000), it was reported that there is a significant relationship between leadership styles and organizational performance. Relationship between leadership style and organizational performance has been discussed often. Most research showed that leadership style has a significant effect on organizational performance, and different leadership styles may have a positive correlation or negative correlation with the organizational performance, depending on the variables used by the researchers (Ojokuku, Odetayo, & Sajuyigbe, 2012). The focus of the present study is on transformational and ethical leadership styles. It is imperative to choose these two styles because of the probability that the duo may influence organizational performance positively.

Ethical leadership has a significant impact on company performance due to its role as a coordinator, motivator, and catalyst that drives a company towards success. Ethical leadership is crucial and necessary for supporting a company’s achievement. Ethical leaders exhibit moral behaviour based on a set of values that guide their actions and behaviours, particularly when they hold positions of authority.

Many researchers have worked on leadership styles to estimate their effect on organizational performance (Ogbeide, Groves, & Cho, 2008). For instance, when the leaders give autonomy to the employees, they would be more loyal and motivated to perform efficiently which would enhance organizational productivity with better outcomes (Kim & Beehr, 2018).

Previous studies have focused on the relationship between leadership styles and employees’ productivity in private sectors (Arnett, Sandvik, & Sandvik, 2018; Roundy, Harrison, Khavul, PérezNordtvedt, & McGee, 2018). The researcher is of the view that there is no one best leadership style, the circumstance surrounding the leaders would dictate the right leadership style to adopt, whether transformational or ethical. Hence, the need to focus on how leadership styles affect organizational performance in the public sector in Nigeria.

Also, extant literature focused on negative behaviours such as employees’ deviant behaviour, counterproductive behaviour and intentions to quit among faculty members (Adeoti, Shamsudin & Wan, 2017; Geidam, Njoku, & Bako, 2010; Kura, Shamsudin, & Chauhan, 2015; Kura, Shamsudin, & Chauhan, 2016), but the present study focused on employees’ innovative work behaviour among faculty members and how such behaviours can enhance the performance of public tertiary institutions. Hence, the present study focused on positive work behaviour among faculty members instead of negative behaviours studied by previous researchers.

Conceptual Framework

Organizational Performance

Corporate performance and organizational efficacy are sometimes used interchangeably. Organizational effectiveness assesses how successfully a social system with constrained means and resources, like an organization, accomplishes its objectives without placing an undue burden on its members. When assessing performance, factors including productivity, flexibility, and inter-organizational conflicts are taken into account (Alshebami, 2021). An organization’s performance can be used to measure its level of production and efficacy. Leaders can determine whether these achievements have been realized or not by comprehending the overall performance of the company. Knowing the state of the business will make it simpler for you to create policies. Thus, company proprietors can manage and organize the business better. Business owners can promptly make decisions to enhance organizational functions if there are deficiencies.

Innovative Work Behaviour

Innovation is a complex process with many hazards, positive leadership behavior is considered a key factor in encouraging employee innovation (Hidayati et al., 2019). In this situation, employing innovative work behavior is seen as having benefits for the organization. It is also considered that companies cannot rely solely on the culture that has existed for a long time, but must construct a culture while maintaining the core values of the company. Then, as a driver of innovation within the company, employees are also expected to demonstrate innovative work behavior that can help the company accomplish its objectives and survive in the corporate world. Employees do this to maintain their positions in the company (Kuswati et al., 2021).

Change is an unavoidable thing in human lives. Innovation brings about undesired outcomes (Khan et al., 2022). Khan et al. (2022) propose that adopting an adhocratic culture can foster both innovation and performance, which are crucial for sustainable organizational success in today’s competitive markets.

Leadership

Leaders play a crucial role in ensuring stability, efficiency, and guiding organizations towards their goals. However, the traditional approach to leadership alone may no longer be sufficient in today’s society, as it can lead to ethical issues and social problems. In response, ethical leadership has emerged as a new requirement for leaders in modern organizations (Rosida & Wajdi, 2023). Ethical leadership encompasses both personal and interpersonal aspects, encompassing behaviors, decision-making processes, and relationships that adhere to ethical norms and values (Waskito et al., 2019).

Ethical leadership plays a significant role in providing purpose and motivation to followers within an organization, fostering their adaptability to change and enhancing the quality of work. It encompasses qualities, actions, and behaviors exhibited by leaders that have positive impacts on others. Key characteristics of ethical leaders include honesty, reliability, compassion, and fairness (Ahmad et al., 2022). In today’s dynamic work environment, where high performance is expected from employees, leaders must be responsive to the demands of change, including cultivating an organizational culture that embraces a distinct creative orientation.

Molnár et al. (2021) suggest that ethical leadership plays a role in motivating employees to channel their efforts and abilities towards their work and foster innovation. Ethical leaders emphasize factors that inspire employees to be creative and innovative in order to achieve collective objectives for the betterment of the team and the organization. Leaders are expected to meet the demands of change, which include fostering creativity and innovation. Previous research conducted by Iqbal et al. (2020) supports the notion that ethical leadership has an impact on promoting innovative work behavior.

Theoretical Framework

Social exchange theory

Exchange theorists suggest that human interactions are characterized by social economics, where people are concerned about the inputs they invest in relationships and the outcomes they receive from these relationships (Blau, 1964; Homans, 1961).

Blau’ s perspective is more economic. He argued that social interaction depends much on the anticipated reward. In other words, the next move one makes in enhancing (or degrading) the social relationship depends on what reward is likely to be received. In this manner, Blau argued that people learn to view and value the social relationships more and decide whether the social interaction should be maintained or otherwise.

In the official settings, the rewards could take the forms of supportive leadership, ftraining and development, compensation packages, career advancement, job security, accelerated promotion and more. It is the value of the rewards that determine people’s behaviour and responses toward the social relationship, which means that social relationships are governed by the norms of reciprocity (Gouldner, 1960). That is, people should return benefits given to them in a relationship.

In the present study, the researcher is of the view that the leadership styles exhibited by the management of public tertiary institutions (either transformational or ethical) may determine whether employees will contribute meaningfully or less to the organizational productivity. For instance, norm of reciprocity explains that if employees perceive that the leaders are supportive and ethical towards the employees; all things being equal, such employees may contribute positively to the enhancement of organizational performance.

Trait Theory

Trait theory of leadership is one of the earliest theories of leadership. It focused on the personal attributes of leaders, which comprise physical and personality characteristics, competencies and values. It views leadership mainly from the perspective of the individual leader. Basis of this approach is the assumption that traits produce patterns of behaviour that are coherent amidst the situations. Therefore, leadership traits are considered to be embedded characteristics that people are born with and that remain relatively stable over time. (Mumford, Zaccaro, Harding, Fleishman, & Reiter-Palmon, 2015).

Prior trait scholars studied the personality attributes that they believed were related to leadership effectiveness; an interest on researching exceptional historical figures. According to Fleenor (2021), early researchers viewed leadership as a uni-dimensional personality trait that could be reliably measured and was distributed normally throughout the population; that is an individual difference variable. Many of the early studies on the trait approach focused on the systematic investigation of the significant differences between leaders and followers. It assumes that individuals in higher-level positions possess more leadership traits than those in lower-level positions. To further buttress the fact, a large number of studies were conducted in an attempt to develop reliable and valid measures of leadership traits.

In the present study, transformational ability of a leader is a rare trait in most leaders but if public institutions must reclaim their lost glories, the leaders must be transformational. Also, the level of moral decadence in public tertiary institutions call for concerns. The researcher is of the opinion that ethical leadership is highly essential for improved productivity. Surprisingly, ethical traits are missing in most heads of public institutions in Nigeria as most Vice-Chancellors, Rectors, and College Provosts see their positions as means of financial enrichment for themselves, their family members and close allies.

Relationship between innovative work behaviour and organizational performance

According to Iqbal et al. (2020), Innovative Work Behavior (IWB) can be described as the purposeful generation, introduction, and application of fresh ideas within a work role, group, or organization, with the intention of enhancing the performance of that specific role, group, or organization. Individuals who perceive themselves as thriving in their work tend to exhibit greater levels of IWB compared to those who do not thrive. The presence of innovative work behavior has been shown in previous studies, including research by Iqbal et al. (2020), to have an impact on company performance.

Proposition 1: There is no relationship between innovative work behaviour and organizational performance

Relationship between leadership and organizational performance

According to Ukaidi (2016), leadership style and systemic behavior shifted away from the characteristics of the leader to the style the leader adopted. According to Rowe (2019), records from the style approach recommend that leaders who are devoted to democratic or participatory leadership style seem more successful, compared to managers that adopt autocratic or laissez faire leadership style of management. Complementing Rowe (2019), Yukl (2012) opined that participatory leadership is the best style of leadership in managing an organizational system of any type, and maintained that people react favorably to it in organizations by increased productivity, lower unit cost, good morale and improved labor management relation. However, Yukl (2012) hinted that the worst style of leadership is autocratic or authoritative leadership style which gives rise to high labor management conflicts.

There are different reasons why there should be relationship between leadership style and organizational performance. Today’s intensive and dynamic markets characterize innovation-based competition, price-performance rivalry, decreasing returns and the creative destruction of existing competencies (Venkata-raman 2018). Several studies have suggested that effective leadership behaviors can facilitate the improvement of performance when organizations face these new challenges (McGrath & MacMillan 2000; Teece, Pisano & Shuen 2018). Reviewing the effects of leadership on performance is paramount because leadership is viewed by some scholars as one of the key driving forces for improving a firm’s performance and productivity. According to (Avolio 1999 and Rowe 2019), effective leadership is seen as a major source of management development and sustained competitive advantage for organizational performance improvement (Obiwuru et al. 2021).

Zhu, Chew and Spangler (2005) opined that transactional leadership assists firms to actualize their objectives more efficiently by relating job performance to valued rewards and by guaranteeing that em-ployees have the resources needed to get the job done. McShane & Von-Glinow [2019] stressed that visionary leaders create a strategic insight of some future states, communicate that vision through fram-ing and use of metaphor, model the vision by acting consistently, and build commitment towards the vision (Obiwuru et al. 2021). Zhu et al. (2005) recommended that visionary leadership will result in high levels of cohesion, commitment, trust, motivation, and hence performance in the new organizational environments.

Prior studies have explored the impact of leadership and adhocracy culture in different contexts. Sanchez-Famoso et al. (2023) conducted research in small and medium-sized family companies, examining the integration of ethical leadership, internal social capital, and company performance. Gao, Zhao, and Qu (2020) investigated the effect of person-organization (PO) adhocracy value congruence on employee creativity using fit theory. Alheet et al. (2021) examined the influence of leadership style on innovative work.

According to Sarwar et al. (2020), an ethical leader is an individual who demonstrates moral behaviour both personally and within the corporate setting. Moral behavior is guided by a set of values that influence the actions and conduct of those in positions of authority. When leaders are perceived as trustworthy, considerate, and selfless, employees are more likely to connect with them, engage in positive interactions, and align their interests with the organization’s goals. Previous research by Kim and Thapa (2018) supports this theory, indicating that ethical leadership has a beneficial impact on firm performance.

According to a study by Sarwar et al. (2020), ethical leadership refers to individuals who demonstrate moral behavior both personally and within the organization. This theory is supported by research conducted by Kim and Thapa (2018), which found a positive impact of ethical leadership on firm performance.

Extant literature agreed that ethical leadership has significant impact on innovative work and organizational performance. Ethical leadership sets the tone for a culture that encourages and supports innovation among employees (Molnár et al., 2021; Jia et al., 2022).

Proposition 2: There is no relationship between transformational leadership style and organizational performance

Proposition 3: There is no relationship between ethical leadership style and organizational performance

Method

This research follows a quantitative approach to examine the relationship between innovative work behaviour, leadership style and organizational performance. Quantitative research is a research method rooted in positivism, which involves studying specific population or samples and gathering data via questionnaires (Bougie & Sekaran, 2017). However, the present study aims to make propositions because it is a conceptual paper in nature. Hence, the researcher explored electronic databases such as Google scholar, EBSCOhost, Emerald management plus and other related databases for scholarly articles on the variables with the aim of raising propositions in line with theoretical perspectives.

Research framework

Social exchange theory and past empirical studies agreed with the proposed conceptual framework. Specifically, social exchange theory (Blau, 1964) explains the positive relationship between leadership activities and organizational performance. Further, it is the value of leadership and people’s innovative behaviour and responses that determine the outputs of corporate entities. In other words, social relations are governed by the norms of reciprocity (Gouldner, 1960), which simply states that people would return benefits given to them or values they receive in a relationship. Figure 1.1 presents the conceptual framework.

Organizational performance

Innovative work behaviour

Leadership:

-Transformational

-Ethical leadership

Figure 1.

Conceptual framework

Conclusion

The implications of this research are significant for entities seeking to understand the effects of innovative work behaviour and both transformational and ethical leadership on organizational performance. The findings will provide valuable information for decision-making processes aimed at enhancing corporate performance and organizational success. For future research, it is recommended that future studies should focus on variables such as economic pressure and employees’ commitment, which were not examined in this study.

This study has proposed a framework guided by social exchange theory (Blau, 1964) with the aim of encouraging innovative work behaviour among faculty members in Nigerian public tertiary institutions. More so, management of public tertiary institutions are encouraged to adopt both transformational and ethical leadership approaches to instill innovative work behaviour that may enhance productivity among staff members. Lastly, the researcher is optimistic that future researchers will test the proposed model empirically.

References

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Geidam, A. D., Njoku, A. E., & Bako, B. (2011). Prevalence and nature of sexual assault among female students in a tertiary institution in Maiduguri, Nigeria: A cross sectional study. International Journal of Health Research, 3(4), 199-203.

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Kim, M. S., & Thapa, B. (2018). Relationship of ethical leadership, corporate social responsibility and organizational performance. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(2).

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The Managers’ Autocratic Leadership Style and Performance of Employees in Commercial Banks

Kavishemi, S

Assistant Lecturer, Department of Management, Faculty of Commerce and Management, Eastern University, Sri Lanka.

Abstract

This study’s primary goal is to look into the relationship between autocratic, leadership style and employees’ performance in commercial banks in the Eastern Province. 250 workers from 559 commercial banks in the Eastern Province replied for this study. Additionally, the researcher designs the sample using a simple random sampling procedure. Five Point Likert structured questionnaire was used as the data gathering tool. The performance of the employees was taken as the dependent variable and the autocratic leadership style was considered as independent variable. Univariate and correlation analysis were also performed on the obtained data using the SPSS version 23 software. The results indicated that, there is medium positive correlation between autocratic leadership style and employee performance.

Keywords: Autocratic leadership style, Employees’ performance

INTRODUCTION

Major managerial changes are being emerged in various organizations for ensuring their sustainability in the challenging world. In this perspective, manager needs to be competent person to manage these changes. Managers’ jobs are complex and varied, and they require a certain set of talents to carry out their responsibilities. It is impossible to overstate the significance of leadership in companies. The idea is important much as it affects an organization’s effectiveness and sustenance in the present and the future (Makambe & Moeng, 2020).

Leadership style plays a crucial role in administration since the way in which the manager uses the resources under their control to achieve goals is crucial (Adeyemi, 2004). In essence, these successes in organizations depend on three distinguishable leadership styles (Lunenberg & Ornstein, 1991). Therefore, there is no question that bank managers in the Eastern Province are under increasing pressure from different leadership styles. However, it appears that a lot of managers do not think about their leadership styles as factors in branch manager performance. The results of this study will help bank managers and community members everywhere improve leadership techniques in their workplaces. It will result in a positive effect on employees’ performance. It has been determined that managers are a key factor in the banks’ ongoing development, and as a result, the wellbeing of societies can also be strengthened through time. Leadership style is a leader’s approach to providing direction, implementing plans, and motivating people. Lewin (1939), determined that there were three basic leadership styles: Authoritarian (Autocratic), Participative (Democratic) and Delegative (Laissez-Faire).

In this situation, banks must build successful leadership using the right leadership styles. Different leadership styles have been implemented at the chosen banks, however this has led to conflict between managers and employees and, in some cases, a demotivation of workers. While some employees were resistant to various leadership styles because they didn’t understand how the styles affected employee performance, some managers opposed the adoption of certain leadership styles because they thought they diminished their authority. When compared to other banks, certain banks’ employees perform exceedingly poorly. As we have taken Eastern Province almost all there is no considerable insights or other reasons that affect employees’ performance, the substantial reason is bank managers’ leadership styles. There are insufficient number of studies that observe the relationship of the variables in the specialized context of banking sector. This indicates there is a clear empirical gap exists in this topic that needs to be evaluated. In Sri Lankan context, there are no studies regarding the managers’ autocratic leadership styles and Performance of Employees in Commercial Banks in The Eastern Province. This show there is a population gap in the related topic. Therefore, the study attempts to achieve the objectives below;

· To determine the level of autocratic leadership style of managers and performance of employees in commercial banks in the Eastern Province

· To identify the significant relationship between the autocratic leadership style of managers and performance of employees in commercial banks in the Eastern Province.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Autocratic Leadership Style: The terms “autocratic” and “authoritarian style” both refer to the kind of rulers who demand quick compliance without question (Iqbal, Anwar & Haiden, 2015). A system that fully empowers the leader while requiring little from the followers is known as an autocratic leadership style. According to Portugal & Yukul (1994), authoritarian leaders frequently exhibit the following five traits: They don’t consult the rest of the group while making decisions, the leaders decide all policies, how work will be done, what the followers’ responsibilities will be, and how technical and performance evaluation will be done. The authoritarian leadership style is another name for the autocratic leadership style, in which the leader has complete control over all decisions. The group’s leader instructs the members of the group on how to carry out tasks but does not keep open lines of communication with them. He or she neither delegated power to others nor allowed subordinates to influence policy (John, 2002).

Employee Performance: Performance is an important assessment for companies so that the company’s sustainability can be guaranteed (Zhang, 2010). Employee performance includes behavior that is under control but provides limits for irrelevant behavior. Meanwhile, the performance also assesses the active role of employees in carrying out obligations according to the formal contract given to them by the company (Biswas, 2009).

Manager: The manager is the center of power in this arrangement, and they are the only ones with the authority to decide on policies, practices, work assignments, and the administration of rewards and punishments (Mullins & Syam, 2014). Managers are members of an organization that either oversee one team or numerous teams in order to plan activities and boost productivity. Even if they aren’t senior leadership or executives, they effectively manage their teams to interpret and carry out senior leadership agendas (Risher, 2010).

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Figure 1: Conceptual Framework

Performance of Employees

Autocratic Leadership Style

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

(Source: Basit et al., 2017)

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

250 employees of commercial banks in the Eastern Province were surveyed using a standardized questionnaire to get primary data about their performance and the management style. Three categories are covered in the questionnaire: personal traits, leadership style, and employees’ performance. The questionnaire was also written in English.

Part I of the questionnaire asks for personal information, and Parts II and III ask for research-related information. Gender, civil status, the number of family members, and service years are all listed in Part I. Parts II and III discuss the study variables, autocratic leadership style and employee performance, respectively. Data were gathered by closed-ended statements, and the degree of agreement was determined using a 5-point Likert scale from 1 to 5 from each client’s perspective. According to the Likert scale, respondents’ levels of agreement with the following statements:

1 – Strongly Disagree

2 – Disagree

3 – Neutral

4 – Agree

5 – Strongly Agree

In this study, the Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient (CAC) has been used for analyzing the reliability instrument. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, this has employed univariate and bivariate analysis to analyze the collected data in SPSS.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Authoritarian leadership style is also common in the banks of the Eastern province (MV=2.38914, SD=0.27426). This demonstrates that in some circumstances in the Eastern Province’s banks, authoritarianism is pervasive. Correlation (r) between autocratic leadership style and employees’ performance is 0.415 and significance at 0.01 levels (2-tailed) is 0.000. It is concluded that there is a medium positive relationship between autocratic leadership style and employees’ performance in Commercial Banks in Eastern Province.

According to David & Obadia (2017), authoritarian leadership is acquired by punishment, threat, demands, instructions, rules, and regulations. Authoritarian followers’ responsibilities include blindly and unquestioningly carrying out their leader’s orders. The duties of an authoritarian leader include the creation of unilateral rules, work delegation, and issue solving. Authoritarian leadership is acceptable when there is a constant influx of new employees, when there aren’t enough resources or time to make decisions, and when there is a need for close collaboration with other groups and organizations. Having an autocratic leadership style has little effect on how well staff in commercial banks in the Eastern Province perform. Due to the managers’ limited ability to control large groups of people, the employees’ familiarity with the banking environment, and the employees’ long-term employment up until retirement from service.

CONCLUSION

Autocratic leadership styles offer structure to organizations, establish clear rules, and can streamline communications. People who work under an autocratic leader will know exactly who to talk to and who they should ask for approval. Not only can this lead to improved organizational efficiency, it can enhance accountability. The style of autocratic leadership has obstructive impact on employee performance. This means the productivity of workers would not increase by adopting an autocratic strategy. In addition to it; employees who are now becoming more knowledgeable, independent and competent can no longer accept autocratic leadership style.

LIST OF REFERENCES

Adeyemi, T.O. (2004). Educational Administration, an Introduction, Ado-Ekiti Green line Publishers.

Basit, A., Sebastian, V., & Hassan, Z. (2017). Impact of leadership style on employee performance (A Case study on a private organization in Malaysia). International Journal of Accounting & Business Management, 5(2), 112-130.

Biswas, S. (2009). HR practices as a mediator between organizational culture and transformational leadership: Implications for employee performance. Psychological Studies, 54, 114-123.

David A. O. Aunga and Obadia Masare (2017) Effect of leadership styles on teacher’s performance in primary schools of Arusha District Tanzania. International Journal of Educational Policy Research and Review 4(4), 42-52 Retrieved from ://www.journalissues.org/IJEPRR/https://doi.org/10.15739/IJEPRR.17.006 ISSN 2360-7076, retrieved on June 2017.

Iqbal, N., Anwar, S., & Haider, N. (2015). Effect of leadership style on employee performance. Arabian journal of business and management review, 5(5), 1-6.

John, C.M. (2002). Million leaders Mandate. Notebook one. Equip Publishers, America.

Lewin, K., Lippitt, R., & White, R. K. (1939). Patterns of aggressive behavior in experimentally created “social climates”. The Journal of social psychology, 10(2), 269-299.

Lunenberg, F.C. & Ornstein, A.C. (1991). Educational Administration Concepts and Practices.Belmont, C.A.: Wadworth.

Makambe, U., & Moeng, G. J. M. (2020). The effects of leadership styles on employee performance: a case of a selected commercial bank in Botswana. Annals of Management and Organization Research, 1(1), 39-50.

Mullins, R., & Syam, N. (2014). Manager–salesperson congruence in customer orientation and job outcomes: The bright and dark sides of leadership in aligning values. Journal of Personal Selling & Sales Management, 34(3), 188-205.

Portugal, E., & Yukl, G. (1994). Perspectives on environmental leadership. The Leadership Quarterly, 5(3-4), 271-276.

Risher, H. (2010). Don’t overlook frontline supervisors. Public Manager, 39(3), 74.

p class=”MsoNormal” style=”line-height: 24px;margin-left: 36pt;text-align: justify;text-indent: -36pt”>Zhang, J. (2010). Employee orientation and performance: An exploration of the mediating role of customer orientation. Journal of Business Ethics, 91, 111-121.

Nature and Extent of Nutrition Education Being Imparted to the Rural School Children by the Selected Stakeholders

Ankit Pal^1, Lenin Venu², Satyapriya³, Ananda K R^*4, Alok Dube⁵

^{1, 2, 3}Research Scholar, Agricultural Extension, ICAR- Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi.

^{4, 5}Research Scholar, Agricultural Extension, ICAR- Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi.

ABSTRACT

With an emphasis on the responsibilities played by teachers, parents, and Anganwadi workers, this study intends to analyse the existing practises of nutrition teaching in rural schools in Bihar, India. An ex-post facto research design was used for the study, which was carried out in the Bihar district of Arwal. Teachers, parents, and Anganwadi staff made up the 240 participants who were drawn at random. Data collection was done using questionnaires, which were pretested for validity and reliability. As well as identifying any gaps or areas for improvement, the obtained data were analysed to ascertain the common tactics and methodology utilised by educators, parents, and Anganwadi staff in delivering nutrition education. According to the study, parents used a variety of tactics to promote healthy eating habits in their kids, including giving them choices, giving nutritious foods catchy names, and making food appealing to the eye. For nutrition teaching, teachers mostly used lectures, discussions, and visual aids like nutrition charts and posters.

However, there were still certain areas that required improvement, such as more active parental involvement, student involvement in cooking projects, and teaching children how to read food labels. The study gives suggestions and ideas to improve the calibre and scope of nutrition education programmes in rural Bihar and offers insightful analyses of the practises of nutrition education currently in use. This study adds to the creation of focused interventions and support systems for boosting nutrition instruction in rural schools by filling in information gaps and identifying areas for improvement.

Keywords: Nutrition education, Rural schools, Teaching materials, Teachers, Parents, Anganwadi workers.

INTRODUCTION

It is impossible to exaggerate the value of nutrition education, particularly for the growth and development of children in rural regions. Understanding the type and scope of nutrition education being given to schoolchildren in Bihar, an Indian state noted for its primarily rural population, is of utmost importance. In this study, nutrition instruction in rural schools will be examined, with an emphasis on the responsibilities that teachers, parents, and Anganwadi workers play in this process. In order to encourage healthy eating habits, minimise malnutrition, and support general growth and development in children, nutrition education is essential. The need of education is even greater in rural communities when access to adequate healthcare and nutritional resources may be limited. To create effective methods for enhancing nutrition education among rural schoolchildren in Bihar, an evaluation of the current initiatives and the identification of potential gaps are important effective schools with pleasant school environments have made a big effort to connect with the families of their students in order to create outstanding cooperation. Maintain that for schools to be effective, there must be a strong and cooperative interaction between students, parents, teachers, and the community. (Sanders, 2009).

Teachers play a crucial role in determining how children learn in rural schools. They have the capacity to contribute significantly to the dissemination of nutrition information and the encouragement of wholesome eating practises. Designing targeted interventions and support systems requires a thorough understanding of how instructors integrate nutrition education into their curricula and the methods they use.

The eating habits and nutritional intake of a child are significantly influenced by parents as well. They are essential in preparing meals and setting up a setting that encourages healthy eating at home. We may learn more about the degree of awareness and engagement in families and pinpoint areas for development by examining the role of parents in nutrition education. A child’s eating habits will continue to improve if the family models the improvements in behaviour and shares the same influences. (Epstein et al., 2001).

Additionally, community health workers known as Anganwadi workers who are in charge of offering fundamental nutrition and health services play a critical role in rural areas. They frequently collaborate closely with schools and families, offering assistance and direction on numerous facets of young children’s nutrition and health. It can be useful to discover chances for collaboration and increase the overall impact of such initiatives by evaluating the involvement and training of Anganwadi staff in providing nutrition education.

In terms of nutrition and education, school gardens can assist kids and their families in both rural and urban settings. As a platform for learning, school gardens should be viewed as a way to promote nutrition and education rather than as a way to produce vast amounts of food or money. Students can learn how to grow, care for, harvest, and prepare healthful seasonal vegetables in the classroom, the garden, the kitchen, the school cafeteria, and the home. The experience increases the school community’s environmental, social, and physical wellness while fostering a greater understanding of how the natural world sustains us. The concept is supported by links to backyard gardens, which also provide opportunity for the school and the community to exchange information and expertise. (FAO, 2010 and 2015).

This study aims to fill the knowledge gap about the type and scope of nutrition instruction provided to rural Bihar schoolchildren. Its goal is to shed light on current practises and point out potential areas for change by looking at the responsibilities of teachers, parents, and Anganwadi workers. The results of this study can help stakeholders, including policymakers, educators, and educators, establish comprehensive and successful programmes to support nutrition education and enhance the general wellbeing of rural schoolchildren in Bihar.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

In order to encourage healthy eating habits and prevent malnutrition among schoolchildren, nutrition education is essential. However, there is a dearth of thorough knowledge about the type and scope of nutrition education being provided to schoolchildren by teachers, parents, and Anganwadi workers in rural areas of Bihar where malnutrition rates are frighteningly high. The efficacy of the current programmes for nutrition education and the degree of cooperation amongst various stakeholders are still unknown.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

1. Assess the nature and extent of nutrition education being delivered to rural school children, including the curriculum, teaching materials, and instructional approaches employed by teachers, parents, and Anganwadi workers.

2. Provide recommendations and strategies to enhance the quality and reach of nutrition education programs in rural Bihar.

RESEARCH QUESTION

1. To determine the nature and extent of nutrition education being imparted to the rural school children by the Parents?

2. To determine the nature and extent of nutrition education being imparted to the rural school children by the Teachers?

3. To determine the nature and extent of nutrition education being imparted to the rural school children by Anganwadi workers?

AREA OF THE STUDY

The research was conducted in the Arwal district of Bihar.

METHODOLOGY

The present study, with the main aim of determine the of nature and extent of nutrition education being imparted to the rural school children in Arwal district of Bihar was conducted adopting an ex-post facto research design. An ex-post factoresearch is a systematic empirical enquiry in which the researcher does not have direct control over the variables because their manifestations have already occurred or because they are inherently not manipulatable (Kerlinger, 1964).

Arwal district was purposively selected for the study. There are five blocks in the district. Three blocks will be randomly selected. From each block a cluster of rural schools was randomly selected and from each school cluster 30 children were randomly selected. Besides this, 90 parents of these selected children will be randomly selected. In addition, 30 teachers will be selected from these 3 schools clusters. Further 30 Anganwadi workers will be randomly selected. Total sample size of the study was 240.

Reading articles and examining textbooks helped create a question (item) bank, which was then thoroughly examined with the assistance of subject-matter specialists. The purpose of the questions was to assess the type and quantity of nutrition instruction being provided to rural schoolchildren. There were 43 items made in total for the relevance test. A knowledgeable panel of judges reviewed the item statements to determine their applicability and chose those that would be tested in the final exam. The 43 items were presented to a panel of 30 judges who were experts in extension education with the request that they evaluate the application of each item. The judges were asked to react using a five-point scale with ratings of 5, 4, 3, and 1, highly relevant, relevant, undecided, less relevant, and not relevant. The relevancy score for each item was calculated by adding the ratings on the scale for each judge’s comments. Two types of tests—relevancy percentage and frequency—were computed from the data for each item. The choices were made from the items that satisfied the minimum parameters (Relevancy% > 70, Relevancy Weightage > 0, and Mean relevancy score > 3.0). There were 17 total items chosen for parents, 16 for Parents and Anganwadi workers. The target population’s knowledge, practises, and behaviours about nutrition were to be evaluated through the use of these questions. Each question had two options for answers: “yes” or “no,” allowing for a binary response.

A representative sample of teachers, parents, and Anganwadi workers in rural Bihar were given the questionnaire as part of the data collection procedure. The questionnaire was pretested on a small pilot sample before to the actual data collection in order to improve the reliability and validity of the results. This made it easier to spot any questions that had questions that were unclear or had problems, which were then fixed to make the questions accurate and clear.

DATA ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION

Table 1 Nature and Extent of Nutrition Education Provided by the Parents (N=90)

Sl.no	Statement	f	%	Mean score	Rank
1	Do you allow your children to make choice between the healthy food?	54	60	0.60	VII
2	Do you use interesting names (word-play) for healthy food?	57	63.33	0.63	VI
3	Do you use red cherry, nuts, butter and cream on the food to make it very attractive?	84	93.33	0.93	I
4	Do you ever give the opportunity to children to help you in the kitchen?	69	76.66	0.76	III
5	Do you keep more healthy nutritious food rather than junk food in the almirah or fridge?	60	66.66	0.66	V
6	Do you give any rewards/ bait for eating healthy food?	63	70	0.70	IV
7	Do you tell the story of your children to encourage them to consume Bitter gourd, Bottle gourd, Pumpkin and other vegetables which don’t look good but very nutritious?	33	36.66	0.36	XII
8	Do you take the help of Tv programme (cartoon), Tv advertisement to aware your children about healthy food?	63	70	0.70	IV
9	Do you convince your children to keep fast on the eve of festivals?	24	26.66	0.26	XIV
10	When you go for trip with your children do you brings home made food with you?	36	40	0.40	XI
11	Does your children have breakfast, lunch and dinner with you?	27	30	0.30	XIII
12	Does your children watching Tv while eating food?	48	53.33	0.53	IX
13	Do you pray for God before eating food?	42	46.66	0.46	X
14	Do you give junk food in few quantities in order to force your children to eat more fruits, vegetables and dry products?	51	56.66	0.56	VIII
15	Do you stop your children when they eating more than enough?	51	56.66	0.56	VIII
16	While you making the healthy food do you pay attention on colour, appearance and taste of food?	60	66.66	0.66	V
17	Do you apply the tactic that if you finish your milk daily then we will go for fair?	75	83.33	0.83	II

According to the findings in table 1, a significant portion of parents (93.33%) admitted to using red cherries, nuts, butter, and cream on food to make it more aesthetically pleasing. This finding suggests that attempts have been made to increase the appeal of nutritious food. According to 83.33% of parents, the strategy of promising a trip to a fair if the child finishes their milk each day may encourage milk consumption.

A sizable percentage of parents (76.66%) gave their kids the chance to assist in meal preparation, showing a favourable interest in this activity. In order to promote healthy eating among their children, a sizable portion of parents (70%) used TV shows and commercials.

Table 2 Nature and Extent of Nutrition Education Provided by the Teachers (N=30)

Sl.no	Statements	f	%	Mean score	Rank
1	Do you use any Nutrition chart, poster or other visual tools to teach the students?	27	90	0.9	II
2	Do you take the help of books to teach the children about nutrition education?	26	86.66	0.86	III
3	Do you offer the various types of games to enhance the nutritional knowledge of the children?	24	80	0.80	V
4	Do you arrange any nutritional program or nutritional week to provide the nutrition education?	25	83.33	0.83	IV
5	Do you ever bring the students in the garden to aware them about nutritious food?	18	60	0.60	VII
6	Do you take the help of Anganwadi workers to provide the nutrition education of the students?	25	83.33	0.83	IV
7	Do you engage students with cooking projects?	16	53.33	0.53	IX
8	Do you ever arrange the meeting with parents of students to aware them about nutritious food?	17	56.66	0.56	VIII
9	Do you deliver lecture to teach the students?	28	93.33	0.93	I
10	Do you arrange any debates on the topic of healthy food among the children?	28	93.33	0.93	I
11	Do you provide any type of rewards/ Bait of children to consume the healthy food?	26	86.66	0.86	III
12	Do you give any type of punishment / threat, If student consume unhealthy food?	19	63.33	0.63	VI
13	Do you send the learning materials (related from nutrition) to parents to teach the children?	18	60	0.60	VII
14	Do you bring local chefs to your school to teach student about healthy eating practice and local foods?	25	83.33	0.83	IV
15	Do you teach the students that how to read food label so they have the skills to make healthy choices at the grocery store or home?	15	50	0.50	X
16	Do you apply taste-test method on the students to aware them about various nutritious food?	12	40	0.40	XI

Table 2 demonstrates the prevalence of lectures as a teaching strategy, with 93.33% of instructors using lectures to instruct students about nutrition. Similarly, 93.33% of teachers organised discussions among the students on issues related to healthy eating.

90% of educators said they instruct children about nutrition using charts, posters, or other visual aids. 86.66% of teachers who addressed the topic indicated using books as a resource for nutrition instruction. 86.66% of teachers said they offered incentives or rewards to entice kids to eat healthy.

Only 40% of teachers used the taste-test technique to inform students about different nutrient-dense foods. Lessons on how to read food labels so that consumers can make healthy choices at the grocery store or at home were only cited by 50% of teachers.

Table 3 Nature and Extent of Nutrition Education Provided by the Anganwadi Workers (N=30)

S.no	Statements	f	%	Mean score	Rank
1	Do you use any Nutrition chart, poster or other visual tools to teach the students?	30	100	1	I
2	Do you take the help of books to teach the children about nutrition education?	30	100	1	I
3	Do you offer the various types of games to enhance the nutritional knowledge of the children?	29	96.66	0.96	II
4	Do you arrange any nutritional program or nutritional week to provide the nutrition education?	17	56.66	0.56	VII
5	Do you ever bring the students in the garden to aware them about nutritious food?	12	40	0.40	X
6	Do you take the help of Anganwadi workers to provide the nutrition education of the students?	24	80	0.80	V
7	Do you engage students with cooking projects?	13	43.33	0.43	IX
8	Do you ever arrange the meeting with parents of students to aware them about nutritious food?	29	96.66	0.96	II
9	Do you deliver lecture to teach the students?	30	100	1	I
10	Do you arrange any debates on the topic of healthy food among the children?	25	83.33	0.83	IV
11	Do you provide any type of rewards/ Bait of children to consume the healthy food?	24	80	0.80	V
12	Do you give any type of punishment / threat, if student consume unhealthy food?	15	50	0.50	VIII
13	Do you send the learning materials (related from nutrition) to parents to teach the children?	19	63.33	0.63	VI
14	Do you bring local chefs to your school to teach student about healthy eating practice and local foods?	27	90	0.90	III
15	Do you teach the students that how to read food label so they have the skills to make healthy choices at the grocery store or home?	12	40	0.40	X
16	Do you apply taste-test method on the students to aware them about various nutritious food?	12	40	0.40	X

Table 3 reveals that (100%) of the Anganwadi staff members claimed to have taught the pupils about nutrition using charts, posters, or other visual aids. Similarly, 100% of the employees said they used books to teach kids about nutrition education. All of the employees (100%) stated that they gave lectures to pupils about nutrition.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of the staff reported using different games to improve the kids’ dietary awareness. Organising meetings with parents to spread awareness of nutrient-dense foods was reported by a sizable majority of employees (96.66%). 90% of the staff members indicated that the school invited local chefs to teach kids about good eating habits and regional foods.

DISCUSSION OF THE RESULT

The eating habits and nutritional awareness of children are greatly influenced by parents. The findings show that parents use a variety of methods to teach their children about nutrition. Parents frequently use techniques like letting kids make choices, giving nutritious food intriguing names, and making food look appealing. These procedures show a sincere effort to involve kids and make eating well interesting to them. The less frequent use of storytelling and persuading kids to keep fasts on festival eves, however, raises the possibility that these strategies may not be generally acknowledged or prioritised by parents. Similar studies from the FAO (2010, 2015) imply that the home, kitchen, cafeteria at school, and garden are all educational settings where children can learn how to domesticate, care for, harvest, and prepare healthful seasonal vegetables.

The results also provide insight into the practises now used by teachers, who are also very important in nutrition instruction. The findings demonstrate how nutrition education is delivered through a variety of resources, including visual aids, books, games, and programmes. This result is consistent with Kim and Kim’s (2014) study that there were differences in the goals, topics, delivery methods, and effective strategies used in nutrition education for kids. In terms of nutrition education, the needs of teachers and parents were very different.

These strategies show off a thorough and engaging teaching strategy. But there is still opportunity for development in some areas. For instance, only a small portion of teachers assign cooking projects to their pupils, despite the fact that this might give them excellent hands-on experience. To improve the efficacy of nutrition education, additional emphasis can be placed on engaging parents and teaching kids how to read food labels.

The research on nutrition education given by Anganwadi personnel reveals a wide range of methods. The usage of nutrition charts, posters, books, and lectures shows that nutrition education is delivered in an organised manner. Additionally, efforts to give hands-on and interactive learning opportunities are indicated by the planning of nutritional programmes, participation in cooking projects, and involvement of local chefs. Although less frequently reported, setting up parent meetings and using taste-testing techniques both point to possible areas for improvement in the overall nutrition education programme. This result is in line with Murlidharan’s (1984) assertion that the majority of parents are unable to provide their children with much stimulation due to their own limitations. Therefore, if we want these kids to succeed in adulthood, compensating schooling for them seems to be crucial.

CONCLUSION

With a focus on the responsibilities played by teachers, parents, and Anganwadi workers, this research study sought to analyse the existing practises of nutrition teaching in rural Bihar schools. The findings showed that parents use a variety of tactics to encourage their kids to eat well. However, certain customs were less widespread, such as fasting on the eves of festivals or promoting the eating of healthy vegetables through storytelling. These results underline the necessity of focused initiatives to improve parental nutrition education procedures. It was discovered that teachers use a variety of teaching techniques to impart nutrition knowledge, including the use of visual aids, books, games, and debates. By offering fundamental nutrition and health services, Anganwadi workers have a big impact in rural communities.

It is important to highlight that while this study was carried out in the Bihar district of Arwal, it is possible that the conclusions cannot be applied to other areas. Gaining a more thorough grasp of nutrition education practises in rural India might benefit from additional research in various districts and states.

RECOMMENDATION

1. To persuade educators and Anganwadi workers to keep using these tools, and to equip them with additional resources to increase their efficiency.

2. Teachers and Anganwadi staff members must to be encouraged to include such activities in their curricula and make use of regional resources, such planning field trips to area gardens or inviting local chefs, to generate interesting learning opportunities.

3. By offering training courses and chances for professional growth, you can provide them the abilities and information they need to conduct nutrition education successfully.

4. It is advised to incorporate nutrition principles across many courses and situations to create a thorough approach to nutrition teaching.

REFRENCE

Epstein LH, Gordy CC, Raynor HA. (2001). Increasing fruit and vegetable intake and decreasing fat and sugar intake in families at risk for childhood obesity. Obesity research (serial on the Internet).;9(3):171–8.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2010). A new deal for school gardens. FAO: Rome. http://www. fao.org/docrep/013/i1689e/i1689e00.pdf.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Swensson LFJ. (2015). Institutional Procurement of Food from Smallholder Farmers: The Case of Brazil. FAO: Rome. http://www.fao.org/3/a-bc569e.pdf.

Kerlinger, F.M. Foundations of behavioral research. New York: Holt, Rinehart, & Winstron, 1964.

Kim, N.H. and Kim, M.H. (2014). The Comparison of Perceptions and Needs for Nutrition Education between Early Childhood Teachers and Parents. The Korean Journal of Food and Nutrition, 27(1):66–74. Retrieved on 04.12.2021 from https://doi.org/10.9799/KSFAN.2014.27.1.066

Murlidharan,R.(1984).Preschool Education: Profile of Child in India. Report of Early Childhood Education. National Institute of Public Cooperation and Child Development, NIPCCD New Delhi.

Sanders, M. G. & Sheldon, S. B. (2009). Principals matter: A guide to school, family, and community partnerships. Corwin: A SAGE Company.

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Effect of Religiosity, Tax Knowledge and Public Governance Quality on Taxpayers' Compliance in Southwest, Nigeria

Bukola Elizabeth Abiola¹, Olusola Esther Igbekoyi (Ph.D)²^,, Kolawole Mohammed Akande^3*,

Oluyemi Ayodeji Olayisade⁴

^1,3,4Department of Accounting, College of Social and Management Science, Afe Babalola University, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria

²Department of Accounting, Faculty of Administration and Management Sciences, Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the effect of religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality on taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria. Descriptive research of a survey type was adopted and the study covered all the registered 23,289 SMEs across all the states in the Southwest region of Nigeria; out of which, 393 was sampled using proportionate and convenience sampling techniques. A close ended questionnaire was used to elicit the needed information from the sampled respondents across the study location. Pearson correlation and simple linear regression were used to analysis the responses of the respondents. However, before the administration of the instrument, validity and reliability of the instrument were carried out. It was discovered that religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality have a positive and significant effect on tax compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria. Based on the discoveries made, it was concluded that there is a statistically significant effect of religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality on taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that effort must be made by governments at all levels to engage in activities that indicates their sense of accountability to Nigerians. The perception of quality of governance should be improved by imbibing the tenets of representative democracy which will encourage tax payers to comply with tax laws and regulations.

Keywords: Religiosity, Tax Knowledge, Public Governance Quality, Taxpayers’ Compliance

1. Introduction

Tax compliance is the fulfillment of tax regulations by the taxpayers. According to Cong (2018), tax compliance is the transparent accountability of taxpayers to tax authorities. Tax compliance simply means making timely payments, generating, and submitting tax information to the relevant tax authorities according to tax laws (Benno, Markus & Alison, 2017). Voluntary compliance with tax regulations by taxpayers explains their eagerness to be patriotic and contribute their quota to the development of society. The failure of taxpayers to dully comply with tax regulations suggests that taxpayers might be committing an act of noncompliance. Non-compliance of taxpayers with tax laws will not only affect the operational activities of the government, it will equally affect the competitiveness of the nation.

The compliance level of taxpayers is suspected to be low in Nigeria, particularly those in the informal sector like owners and staff of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises. This category of people always finds it difficult to comply with tax laws and regulations since it will reduce the profit made. In the opinion of James, Zaimah and Kamil (2015), some citizens, specifically the entrepreneurs, find it uneasy to execute their civic duties by paying their taxes timely. Oladejo (2020) acknowledged this assertion in her speech at the meeting of World Bank that took place in Washington DC that there are many eligible taxpayers in Nigeria; out of which, only people in the formal sector have their taxes deducted at source and the remaining ones represent the self-employed who appeared not to be tax-cultured. This limits the capacity of the government to defray its growing expenses.

The competitiveness of countries heavily rests on their ability to generate expected revenues and embarks on developmental projects capable of enticing both local and foreign investors. Hence, tax compliance has long been debated universally and several studies have been conducted on the subject matter. Whichever aspect these studies focus on concerning the motives for people, corporations to meet or avoid their tax responsibilities, the general aim is the same, which is to explain issues surrounding tax policies in generating revenue to defray government expenses. Traditionally, a larger part of the studies on tax compliance focused on economic deterrence models where economic factors such as tax penalties, tax amnesty and tax audits are proposed as a means to improve the compliance level of taxpayers.

In this present day, this approach has been criticized by scholars who firmly believed in non-economic factors as a way to stimulate voluntary compliance of taxpayers. This is the focus of this study and it can be explained from two viewpoints. The first viewpoint sheds light on the external values of taxpayers, like the influence of governments’ actions on taxpayers that eventually determine their compliance level while the other one focused on the values which are internal to the individual (Ogiedu, 2020). These are values derived primarily from culture, religion, family and morale. While family and cultural values have been expansively studied in recent times, tax morale, it appeared that religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality as determinants of taxpayers’ compliance have not been explored in the Southwest region of Nigeria, particularly among Small and Medium Scale Enterprises.

Religiosity explains the pledge of individuals to their religions and also their level of obedience to the lessons of the religion. Dabor, Kifordu and Abukaker (2021) opined that in the initial stage of this method, the influence of religiosity on compliance has been neglected and that only recently has this factor been emphasized as something to be explored to provide a better understanding in terms of the attitudes of taxpayers towards tax compliance. This is perhaps because, irrespective of religion, spiritual faith is projected to offer a sound internal control for citizens to differentiate between bad and good attitudes.

Religiosity is anticipated to efficiently avert adverse behaviour and boost the positive attitudes of taxpayers. Hence, religiosity is supposed to positively stimulate taxpayers to willingly comply with tax regulations. Several studies have been conducted on the connection between religiosity and tax compliance. However, findings reported were mixed. For example, Harun Buahtyan, Kaium and Sawyer (2016) reported a negative relationship while Dina (2018), Nor (2018), Hakim, Safira and Muhammdah (2019), Agbetunde, Akinrinola and Anyahara (2020) and Abodher, Ariffin and Saad (2020) reported a positive relationship.

According to Alkhatib, Hamad and Hermas (2020), tax knowledge reveals that there is a link between taxpayers’ capacity to grasp tax rules and regulations and their ability to comply. Mohd. Rizal, Mohd, Rusyidi and Wan-Fadillah (2013) claimed that many SMEs are not conversant with tax laws and regulation hence, they perceive local authority charges are the same with government taxes. This misunderstanding has an influence on their compliance choice since they may believe that by paying council levies, they have paid tax and complied. Because of their failure to grasp tax law requirements, SMEs, many times, failed to pay their tax responsibilities, according to Kojo, Martin, Adombiru, Edisi and Akuetteh (2020). Worrisomely, available studies in this context reported mixed findings. While this discovery is in tandem with the reported findings of Adesina and Mohd. Rusyidi, and Wan Fadillah (2013), Uyioghosa (2016) and Kojo, Martin, Adombiru, Edisi and Akuetteh (2020) that tax knowledge has a positive effect on taxpayers’ compliance, it related inversely to the findings of Hantono (2021) who reported otherwise. This is a vacuum in literature that this study filled.

The quality of public governance is a general concern for citizens as it centers directly on the benefits of tax revenue. Mudathir (2019) described public governance as the organization and distribution of political goods in terms of basic social amenities, security, civil and political freedom and sound health system that can guarantee a good living for the citizens. It is of good quality if these political goods are provided as and when and thereafter influences the compliance level of taxpayers to tax laws and regulations. The quality of public governance is typically dependent on the ways the government exercises its authority to attain its purposes.

Quality public governance is assumed when state governments provide the expected political goods needed to improve the living standard of the populace. Findings reported on the connection between quality public governance and tax compliance are mixed and therefore motivate the researcher to further examine the subject matter. Harun, Buahtyan, Kaium and Sawyer (2016) and Lutfi and Hijattulah (2020) reported a negative effect while Oladejo (2020) reported that in the short run, government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality and control of corruption have a positive and significant effect on taxpayer compliance. He further reported that voice and accountability have a negative and statistically significant effect on tax compliance in Nigeria. James, Zaimah and Kamil (2015) and James (2017) discovered that taxpayers’ perception about tax service quality and public governance quality is significantly related to compliance behavior.

Apart from the mixed findings, available studies on the subject matter indicate that no single study captured all the state governments in the Southwest region of Nigeria. This is worrisome given that the region has the highest number of small businesses through which adequate revenue can be generated to improve the revenue pool of the government. In the same vein, only a few studies jointly captured religiosity, tax morale and quality public governance as non-economic factors to determine tax compliance in the chosen location for this study. This is a gap in literature that this study filled. Based on the gaps, the researcher will examine the effect of religiosity, tax morale and public governance quality on taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria.

Since studies on the subject matter are relatively few in the chosen location thus, the present study does not only add to the limited literature on the influence of religiosity, tax morale and public governance quality on tax compliance but also extends the work of other researchers in Nigeria. This study will add to the extant literature and shed light on the connection between the independent and dependent variables. Also, the findings of this study will be beneficial to policymakers, business owners, regulatory bodies and other scholars.

2. Literature Review and Hypothesis Development

Religiosity

Conceptually, religiosity is a multidimensional phenomenon that different scholars have conceptualized from different perspectives. Josephine (2017) posited that religiosity is broadly about religious involvement and orientation. He added that it includes ritualistic, intellectual, communal, moral, cultural, experiential, ideological, creedal, doctrinal and consequential dimensions. Sociologists of religion observed that an individual’s belief, experience, behaviour and sense of belonging often are not consistent with their actual religious beliefs, since there is much diversity in how one can be religious or not. According to Nor Raihana (2018), religiosity is the embodiment of individual attitude, vale and behaviour. Religiosity is personal life recognition of attitude and quality of life which follow religious values and become his/her belief. Religiosity is more concerned on the elements of noble values on religion than practice and ritual from religious formalities.

People who have high knowledge of religion can prevent an individual to have a negative attitude because if someone has strong religion, they will follow the law made by God and law in society. Mustapha (2020) posited that religiosity is an encouraging principle and commitment of individuals to act in society in a good way or bad way. Augustine (2017) defined religiosity as the level of commitment to one’s religion. Explaining this, religiosity is a personal attitude toward religion in general, not just one aspect of religion, but also encourages the person to become a religious person. More specifically, religiosity is individual to believe, consolidate and spiritualize the religious norms to become one. Thus. it becomes part of the conscience and identity of religiosity which included circumstances that encouraged the follower or believer of religious teaching to think, behave and act in accordance with the teachings of his religion.

Tax Knowledge

Tax knowledge is one of the many factors that contribute to a high level of compliance among taxpayers. Tax knowledge, according to James (2017), is the amount of awareness or sensitivity of taxpayers to tax policy. The methods through which taxpayers become aware of tax legislation and other tax-related information are referred to as tax knowledge. The level of formal general education received by taxpayers is a significant factor in their understanding of tax requirements, particularly in terms of registration and filling requirements. Citizens generally have little understanding about government real spending and the expense of government-provided public services (Pamella, 2020). As a result, taxpayers who lack tax knowledge are compelled to seek the help of tax professionals. Taxpayers’ understanding of taxation is one of the most important strategies to raise public awareness.

Hantoto (2021) defined tax knowledge as tax payers’ awareness of the policies that guide the operation of taxes in an economy. Fundamentally, individuals have a right to appropriate information about how a country’s tax system operates. Adesina and Uyioghosa (2016), on the other hand, claims that general education levels are strongly linked to tax avoidance. People who are well-informed about their duties to register as taxpayers and to record and pay their taxes correctly are examples of national and civic duty. The majority of individuals that have little comprehension of what tax laws entail or why the tax system is constructed and handled the way it is (Richmell, 2016).

Public Governance Quality

The concept of public governance is understood by different scholars as different things in different ways. The World Bank defined governance as a way of exercising power in managing a country’s economic and social development resources (Harun Buahtyan, Kaium & Sawyer, 2016). Public governance actually means the use of power by the government, that is, how the president and his ministers, senators, members of the House of Representatives and public services operate to promote democracy, accountability and transparency, formulate and implement good policies, effectively and efficiently manage Nigeria’s human and financial resources to achieve the country’s substantive development, to achieve economic prosperity and to alleviate poverty (Oladejo, 2020).

According to Oladejo (2020), governance is the process whereby a society makes crucial decisions, ascertains whom they involve and how an account is being rendered. Explaining this, governance comprises of complex procedures, mechanisms, relationships, institution and processes through which groups of individuals and citizens articulate their interests, practice their rights and commitments and mediate their differences. Governance is not all about how a social organization or government interact with their citizens (Ebenezer, et. al., 2019), but it relates more to the nation’s capability to serve citizens and other stakeholders of an economy, as well as the manner in which public functions are being carried out, management of public resources and exercising public regulatory powers. In this context, governance can be viewed as the institutions and traditions by which authority in a nation is exercised for the common good.

Taxpayers’ Compliance

Augustine (2017) argued that tax is a generalized exaction, which may be levied on one or more criteria upon individuals, or other legal entities. Corroborating this, Mustapha (2020) gave a more embracing meaning of tax by saying that tax is a compulsory levy or contribution made by the citizens to the state or even an alien, subject to the jurisdiction of the government, for reasons of residence or property and this contribution is for a general common use. As posited by Ebenezer, Alhassan and Erasmus (2019), tax is a compulsory levy imposed on a subject or upon his property by the government to provide security, social amenities and create conditions for the economic well-being of the society. Similarly, Renee (2019) defined tax as a form of levy imposed on all residents living in, as well as non-residents doing business within a tax jurisdiction.

Having conceptualized tax, compliance is a common concept that is applicable in every discipline. According to Agbetunde, Akinrinola and Anyahara (2020), compliance is the degree of conformity with a stated idea or assertion. Explain this, compliance is a common phenomenon used in agreement or conformity with a given terms and conditions at a given period of time. Richmell (2016) defined compliance as an act of obeying an instruction or order. Failure to abide with an established laws and order calls for sanction in every organization. This is not only applicable to the private organization but also to the society at large.

According to Agbetunde et al., (2020), compliance in relation to tax is the willingness of the tax payers to pay their taxes, duties and charges as and when due. Tax compliance simply means making timely payments, submitting and generating tax information to the relevant tax authorities according to the required format. Corroborating this, Peter and Rufus (2020) defined tax compliance as the transparent accountability of taxpayers to the tax authority. It is the willingness of an individual to conform with the relevant tax authorities by paying their charges. In support of the definition of Peter and Rufus (2020), Oladejo (2020) added that tax compliance is the reporting of all incomes and payment of all taxes by fulfilling the provisions of laws, regulations and court judgments. Explain this, tax compliance is a person’s act of filing their tax returns, declaring all taxable income accurately and disbursing all payable taxes within the stipulated period without having to wait for follow-up actions.

Conceptual Framework

Figure 1 gives the overview of the explained and explanatory variables.

Text Box: Tax Compliance among SMES Text Box: • Religiosity
• Tax Knowledge
• Public governance quality

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Fig 1: Conceptual Framework

Source: Author’s Compilation, 2021.

Theoretical Framework

Theoretically, this study is underpinned by social contract theory. As cited by Mangoting, Sukoharsonob, Rosidic and Nurkholisd (2015), this theory was propounded by Thomas Hobbes and Jean Jacques Rousseau. They went further to explain social contract as an implied agreement between the Government and the people she governed where the citizens give up some rights to the Government, for the Government to undertake some established responsibilities which the citizens would not be able to perform on their own. These rights include rights to properties, wealth, and movement among others. Therefore, the Government as part of its agreement has to create wealth for the citizens, provide security, infrastructural facilities and social amenities as a result of the rights that the citizens sacrificed to her.

In the view of Muhammed (2018), this theory is a branch of the social contract concept which believes that human beings in their nature are rational and selfish and tends to go to extreme lengths to ensure that maximum utility is obtained, including giving up some of their rights and rendering of resources of tax payments. From this perspective, there are two sides of this theory (rationality and selfishness). Human beings are rational in nature because everyone understands that achievement of utility could be an everlasting dream and not reality without making some sacrifices. They are selfish because they make demands in exchange for their sacrifice. Based on these views, it could be deduced that taxpayers are displeased when they play their assigned role by fulfilling their part of the contract, watching the Government not playing their expected roles.

From the perspective of taxpayers among small and medium scale enterprises, this theory sees taxes, as a means of exploiting the wealth of taxpayers by the Government. Thereby the social contract theory functions as a reminder to both parties involved in social contract that they have significant roles to be played which are beneficial to both parties (Renee, 2019). It should be noted that social contract is not expressly signed by both parties (i.e. the Government and the citizens), but it is implied by actions and constitutions. It is documented in Nigerian constitution that taxes should be paid by citizen, that the Government should provide security for her citizens, social amenities, employment, infrastructural facilities, and improved standard of living and that the citizens should comply with the established tax regulations.

This theory holds strong and accurate assumptions; however, it has been criticized based on some limitations. Firstly, it apportions a lot of power to the government to make laws, under the guise of protecting the public. Also, contract can be unfair for the people in most cases. The theory’s representation of humans is incorrect because it was established during the great upheaval and prolonged religious wars. Another critic of this theory is that it supposes that things are done out of selfish motives, ignoring the place of proper motivation in performance of people.

This theory finds great relevance to the study because it explains the reason for efficient tax administration, as well as other factors like tax compliance and tax evasion which influence tax yield. Social contract also highlights the implied agreement between the people and the government, where the people would give up their economic resources in form of tax payments, so that the government would recompense their contribution by providing social amenities and infrastructures. It takes cognizance of the fact that poor compensation from the government can make capable citizens evade tax which would reduce their compliance level and ultimately yield low tax revenue.

Empirical Review

Mohd. Rizal, Mohd. Rusyidi, and Wan Fadillah (2013) examined the role of religiosity in the relationship between tax education and tax knowledge towards tax compliance. Pearson correlation and hierarchical regression were adopted to test the hypotheses. 90.0 % of the respondents indicate that there are religious people. From analysis, it was discovered that the respondents’ tax compliance was lower compared to their education and knowledge towards tax.

James, Zaimah and Kamil (2015) conducted a study titled, public governance quality and tax compliance behavior in Nigeria: the moderating role of financial condition and risk preference. Using descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis method, the major finding of this study is that public governance quality has a significant positive relationship with tax compliance behavior. The study also indicates that risk preference has a strong negative moderating effect on the relationship between public governance quality and tax compliance behavior. Administration of income tax in Nigeria is characterized by low compliance level and therefore, there is no doubt that improvement in public governance quality would contribute significantly to reawakening the culture of tax compliance among individual taxpayers in Nigeria. The current study focuses on tax morale, religiosity, public governance quality as against the study under review that centered on public governance quality.

Adesina and Uyioghosa (2016) investigated the impacts of tax payers’ knowledge and penalties on tax compliance amongst small and medium enterprises in Nigeria using a survey research design. The data obtained from questionnaire were analyzed using the Ordinary Least Square regression method. The results showed that tax knowledge had a positive significant impact on tax compliance while tax penalty had insignificant positive impact on tax compliance.

Harun Buahtyan, Kaium and Sawyer (2016) examined the effect of governance quality and religiosity on tax compliance in Italy. Ordinary least squares have been used to analyze the data gathered covering the period of 2002–2015 based on the latest data of Tax Compliance. The results show the negative impact of governance quality and religiosity on Tax compliance. In Germany, Benno, Markus and Alison (2017) conducted a study titled, tax compliance, tax morale and governance quality. Using Pearson correlation analysis method, the study revealed a strong correlation between tax morale and tax evasion/compliance. Geographically, the study under review was conducted in Germany as against the current study being carried out Southwest, Nigeria.

Josephine (2017) investigated the determinants of tax compliance among small and medium enterprises in Nakuru central business district, Kenya. Data collected was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics with the aid of SPSS package. The findings of the study revealed that perceived opportunity for tax evasion has no statistically significant effect on tax compliance among SMEs. There exist a statistically insignificant, negative relationship between perceived opportunity for tax evasion and tax compliance. Tax knowledge and education has no statistically significant effect on tax compliance among SMEs, while there exists a statistically insignificant negative relationship between tax knowledge/education and tax compliance. The current study is an extension of the study under review as it examines the relationship between tax morale, religiosity, public governance quality and tax compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria.

James (2017) investigated the factors influencing tax payers’ compliance behaviour, evidence from Nigeria. The collected data were treated statistically using multiple regression analysis and other statistical techniques. The results reveal that taxpayers’ perception about tax service quality and public governance quality significantly related to the compliance behaviour. In addition, the effect of taxpayers’ financial condition strengthened the capacity of the compliance model in predicting taxpayers’ behaviour better and significantly moderated the influences of tax system structure, moral reasoning and occupation. The outcome of the study might not be outdated. This is as a result of change in power and economy system. On this basis, the current study is established.

Cong (2018) examined the relationship between tax administration, morale and compliance in small and medium enterprises in Lira municipality, Uganda. The study used descriptive and multiple regression analysis method. The study revealed that the level of tax compliance by SMEs operating in Lira Municipality is moderately low and as matter-of-fact tax to GDP ratio is a measure of compliance and this confirms that SMEs contributes little to the national treasury, it is therefore imperative that much has to be done in areas of tax administration and tax morale which are main determinants of tax compliance. The study also found out that taxpayer education and tax audit are positively correlated with tax compliance this therefore means that a boost in taxpayer education and tax audit would result into a positive increase in the level of tax compliance and subsequently boosting domestic revenue.

Okoye, Isenmila and Oseni (2018) investigate the effect of good governance on personal income tax compliance in Nigeria. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) was applied in testing the hypothesis. The study found a positive and statistically significant relationship between the independent variable (good governance) and the dependent variable (tax compliance) in Nigeria. While the study under review was conducted at the national level, the current study is delimited to Southwest, Nigeria.

Nor Raihana (2018) examined the influence of an individual’s internal value, religiosity compared to external values reflected in attitudes towards government, tax authority and society as well as the impact of threat of punishment on components of tax compliance, namely voluntary tax compliance, enforced tax compliance and tax avoidance attitude in Malaysia. Using descriptive and inferential statistical tools, religiosity appeared to have a statistically significant positive impact only on taxpayers’ willingness to voluntarily comply with tax laws. A different religiosity commitment appeared to influence a different tax compliance component, and religiosity was also evident as a moderating variable. The findings of this study shows that the taxpayers’ perceptions of the government and tax authority had stronger influences on their willingness to voluntarily comply with the tax laws compared to their religiosity. While the predicting variable is delimited to religiosity, the current study extends to include tax morale, religiosity and public governance quality.

Dina (2018) investigated the influence of religiosity towards tax compliance in micro small medium enterprises in Australia. The study employed a simple linear regression analysis method and revealed that religiosities have a positive significant effect on tax compliance among micro small and medium enterprises in Australia. Geographically, the study under review was conducted in Australia as against the current study being carried out in Southwest, Nigeria.

Hakim, Safira and Muhammdah (2019) examined the effect of intrinsic religiosity on voluntary compliance in Indonesia. Using regression analysis method, the study found that religiosity has significant influence on tax amnesty reporting and that religiosity also moderate the influence of guilt cognitions on taxpayer’s voluntary disclosure. The outcome of the study under review might not be tenable in Nigeria as a result of the difference in the geographical scope of the study.

Renee (2019) examined the role of religiosity in tax compliance in New Zealand. The study adopted correlation analysis method. The results found that most participants felt that religiosity can have a positive impact on tax compliance. Although religiosity can be influential on tax compliance, its perceived strength is low compared with other variables such as New Zealand’s source deduction (Pay as You Earn) system and civic duty.

Emmanuel and Anthony (2020) assess the suitability of religion and religiosity in small and medium-scale enterprises’ (SMEs) tax compliance in Ghanaian markets. Using descriptive statistical tools, the study revealed that Ghanaian religious notoriety does not explain SMEs’ tax compliance and that tax evasion is seen as ethical. Institutional, firm and entrepreneurs’ characteristics are important determinants of SMEs’ tax compliance. The current study intends to employ Pearson correlation and multiple regression analysis method as against the study under review that used descriptive statistical tools.

Oladejo (2020) determined the effect of public governance quality on tax compliance in Nigeria between 2008 and 2018. Collected data were analyzed using unit root test and Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). The result from the study showed that in the short run, four public governance indicators had positive significant effect on tax compliance in Nigeria. These are government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality and control of corruption. The result further showed that voice and accountability have a negative and statistically significant effect on tax compliance in Nigeria. The current study intends to employ Pearson Correlation and multiple regression analysis method as against the study under review that used unit root test and Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL).

Abodher, Ariffin and Saad (2020) adopted a structured questionnaire to examine the impact of Islam and Islamic religiosity on tax non-compliance behaviour among self-employed taxpayers in Libya. Structural equation modelling analysis of the data collected suggested that both Islamic religiosities exhibited significant positive relationship with tax non-compliance behaviour among self-employed Libya taxpayers. The outcome of the study under review might not be tenable in Nigeria as a result of the difference in the method of analysis employed for the study.

Lutfi and Hijattulah (2020) examined the relationship between taxpayers’ perception among SMEs in Yemen about the quality of public governance and their non-compliant behaviour in order to have better understanding of non-compliant behaviour. Using descriptive and inferential analysis method, the analysis reveals that public governance quality is perceived as low in Yemen. A simple regression analysis found that public governance quality has a significant negative influence on tax non-compliant behaviour. While the predicting variable is delimited to public governance quality and religiosity, the current study extends to include tax morale, religiosity and public governance quality.

Kojo, Martin, Adombiru, Edisi and Akuetteh (2020) examined the effect of dimensions of tax knowledge on tax compliance in the Ghanaian context using small and medium enterprises. The data was analysed using a structural equation modelling approach. The results of the study suggest that knowledge of tax rights and responsibilities, knowledge of employment income, and awareness of sanctions were found to have a positive and significant relationship with tax compliance. Knowledge of business income was not statistically related to tax compliance.

A survey of religiosity, tax morale and compliance among micro, small and medium scales enterprises in Nigeria was carried out by Agbetunde, Akinrinola and Anyahara (2020). Collected data were analysed using percentages, mean and regression. The study found that religiosity (total, not neither inter- nor intra-personal), as well as tax morale components (especially, sentiment, norms and value, taxpayers’ attitude and fairness of tax system, but not governance and trust), exerted a significant influence on tax compliance among operators of MSMEs in South-West, Nigeria. The current study is unique as it focuses on tax morale, religiosity, public governance quality and tax compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria.

Hantono (2021) examined the impact of tax knowledge, tax awareness, tax morale toward tax compliance boarding house tax. Multiple linear regression analysis shows that tax knowledge, tax awareness, and tax morale are significant toward tax compliance. The results of t-test showed that tax knowledge isn’t approved and indicates it has a significant impact on affecting tax compliance, tax awareness is approved, and indicates that it has less impact on tax compliance. Also, tax morale isn’t approved, indicating that it has a great impact on tax compliance.

3. Data and Methods

The study adopted descriptive research design of a survey type. This is considered appropriate because descriptive research describes situations in their normal settings as they occur and survey design allows every segment of the population to be represented through which inferences could be made. The study covered all the owners of SMEs in the Southwest region of Nigeria. According to SMEDAN national survey (2017), which is the latest, there are 23,289 SMEs across all the states in the Southwest region of Nigeria. The breakdown is given in table 1.

Table 1: Population of the Study

State(s)	SMEs
Lagos	8,395
Ogun	2,465
Oyo	6,131
Ondo	2,363
Osun	3,007
Ekiti	928
Total	23,289

Source: Author’s Compilation, 2021.

According to Yamane (1964) model, the sample size for this study was 393 respondents. The Yamane model (1964) formula is given as:

n =

Where:

n = sample size

N = the population size

e = level of significance

For the population of 23,289, the sample size based on the formula is:

n = = 393

The study adopted a proportionate and convenience sampling techniques. Proportionate sampling with the help of Bowley’s formula was used to determine the sample for each bank while convenience sampling technique was used to determine the respondents with which the questionnaires were administered to promote voluntary participation. Bowley’s formula is given thus:

n =

Where:

n = sample size of each faculty

n! = total sample size

N! = population of each faculty

N = population of the study

Table 2: Sample Size of Each of the Sampled States

State(s)	SMEs
Lagos	n = = 141
Ogun	n = =41
Oyo	n = =103
Ondo	n = =40
Osun	n = =51
Ekiti	n = =16
Total	393

Source: Author’s Computation, 2021.

A close ended questionnaire was used to elicit the needed information from the sampled respondents across the study location. Pearson correlation and simple linear regression were used to analysis the responses of the respondents. However, before the administration of the instrument, validity and reliability of the instrument were carried out. Face and content validity were used to assess the validity of the instrument while a polite study was carried out in kwara State to assess the reliability of the instrument through which 0.782, 0.822, 0.804 and 0.788 reliability co-efficient for religiosity, tax knowledge, quality public governance and taxpayers’ compliance respectively were obtained through cronbach alpha. The study adapted one of the models used by Nazaruddin (2019) to examine the role of religiosity and patriotism in improving taxpayers’ compliance. The model is given thus:

TPC= f(REL) – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – —— ———— – – – – — – – – – – – – – 3.1

Where:

TPC is Tax Compliance

REL is Religiosity

However, the model was adjusted with the aim of achieving the stated objectives. While tax compliance was retained as the outcome variable, tax knowledge and public governance quality were added to the initial predictor.

TPC= f(REL, TAK PGQ) – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – —— —…..——— – – – – — – – – – – – – – 3.2

Where:

TPC is Tax Compliance

REL is Religiosity

TAK is Tax Knowledge

PGQ is Public Governance Quality

Linear representation of the models:

……………………………………….. (3.3)

= Intercept of relationship in the model, u = Error term and is coefficient of the explanatory variables

It is expected that religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality will have a positive effect on tax compliance.

Model Specification

Measurement of Variables

Analysis of the Administered Questionnaire

Table 3: Analysis of the Administered Questionnaires

Questionnaires	Responses	Percentage (%)
Number of filled	360	91.6%
Number of Unfilled	0	0%
Number Not Returned	33	8.4%
Total	393	100%

Source: Field Survey, 2021

The result above reveals that out of the 393 questionnaires that were administered, 360 representing 91.6% were filled, while 7 representing 8.4% were not returned. This implies that the analysis of the items on the questionnaires was based on 360 respondents, being the number of the questionnaires correctly filled and returned.

Table 4: Pearson Correlation

	TAC	REL	TAK	PGQ
TAC	1.000000
REL	0.776756	1.000000
TAK	0.788093	0.341563	1.000000
PGQ	0.449772	0.308770	0.438001	1.000000

Source: Researcher’s Computation (2021).

Table 4 revealed that there is a positive relationship between TAC, REL, RAK and PGQ with correlation coefficient of 0.776756 for REL, 0.788093 for TAK and 0.449772 for PGQ. This indicates that the variables moved in similar directions across the sampled SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria. Similarly, the result also showed that there exists a positive relationship between REL, TAK and PGQ with the correlation coefficient of 0.941563 for TAK and 0.308770 for PGQ. Similarly, the relationship between TAK and PGQ was positive with correlation coefficient of 0.538001. Finally, the relationships between PGQ and other variables were positive. Looking at the correlation coefficient of relationship between the predictors that is not excessively high, it shows that there is no issue of multi-collinearity.

Table 5: Multiple Regression

Dependent Variable: tax compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria.

Variables	Coefficient	Std Error	T-Statistic	Prob.
C	4.968	0.362	13.736	0.000
Religiosity	0.354	0.051	6.891	0.000
Tax Knowledge	0.220	0.101	2.294	0.031
Public Governance Quality	0.243	0.093	3.526	0.001

Source: Author’s Computation, 2021. R – 0.742, Adjusted R-square – 0.551, F-statistics 47.487, P-value (F-stat) 0.000

The value of correlation coefficient (R) given to be 0.742 implies that there is a high relationship between taxpayers’ compliance and the predictors in terms of religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality. The adjusted R² value stood at 0.551 and this indicates that 55.1% of the systematic change in taxpayers’ compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria can be explained by religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality. An explanation of the remaining 44.9% variation in taxpayers’ compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria can be given by other factors not in this model. Religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality have a positive and significant effect on tax compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria to the tune of 0.354(p=0.000<0.05), 0.220(p=0.031<0.05) and 0.243(p=0.001<0.05) respectively. Thus, the null hypotheses indicating that there is no significant effect of religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality on taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria is rejected while the alternative hypotheses are accepted.

4. Data Presentation and discussion Findings

An attempt has been made to examine how taxpayers’ compliance could be influenced by religiosity, tax knowledge and quality public governance with the use of multiple regression. It was discovered that religiosity has a positive and significant effect on taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria to the tune of 0.354(p=0.000<0.05). This connotes that taxpayers’ compliance stand the chance of increasing by 35.4% with just a 1% increase in religiosity across the Southwest zone of Nigeria. By implication, this reflects that taxpayers’ compliance will increase with a reasonable increase in religiosity involvement and orientation. The positive and significant effect of religiosity on taxpayers’ compliance might be attributed to the general believes that people with high knowledge of religion and internalized its principles and values might find it necessary to always obey tax laws and regulations. This outcome gave credence to the tenets of social contract theory that religiosity can influence the rationality and selfishness of taxpayers to trust the government to fulfil its constitutional obligations. This outcome corroborated the discoveries of Hakim, Safira and Muhammdah (2019), Agbetunde, Akinrinola and Anyahara (2020) and Abodher, Ariffin and Saad (2020) that religiosity has a positive effect on taxpayers’ compliance. However, it failed to support the findings of Harun Buahtyan, Kaium and Sawyer (2016) that reported a negative effect of religiosity on taxpayers’ compliance.

Another discovery is that the effect of tax knowledge on taxpayers’ compliance is positive and significant to the tune of 0.220(p=0.031<0.05). This stipulates that a 1% increase in tax knowledge will amount to 22% increase in taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria. By inference, this finding explains that taxpayers in developing nations like Nigeria are naturally selfish and without adequate knowledge of tax laws and regulations alongside tax benefits, they might find it uneasy to pay their taxes as expected. This confirms the selfishness aspects of social contract theory that naturally people find it difficult to pay taxes, most especially in developing countries. The finding is positive and significant because the level of formal education received by taxpayers is a significant factor in their understanding of tax requirements, particularly in terms of registration and filling requirements. While this discovery is in tandem with the reported findings of Adesina and Mohd. Rusyidi, and Wan Fadillah (2013), Uyioghosa (2016) and Kojo, Martin, Adombiru, Edisi and Akuetteh (2020) that tax knowledge has a positive effect on taxpayers’ compliance, it related inversely to the findings of Hantono (2021) who reported otherwise.

The last discovery was that public governance quality has a positive and significant effect on taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria to the tune of 0.243(p=0.001<0.05) indicating that a 1% increase in public governance quality will generate 24.3% increase in taxpayers’ compliance. This outcome underscores that the compliance of taxpayers to contribute their quota in the provision of public needs must be backed by a certain level of confidence on public governance since. Taxpayers are more inclined to comply to tax laws if the exchange between the paid tax and the government performance are found to be unbiased. This finding established the discovery of James, Zaimah and Kamil (2015) and James (2017) that taxpayers’ perception about tax service quality and public governance quality is significantly related to compliance behavior. However, it negated the findings of Harun, Buahtyan, Kaium and Sawyer (2016) and Lutfi and Hijattulah (2020). They reported a negative effect of public governance quality on taxpayers’ compliance.

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

Available studies on the subject matter indicate that no single study captured all the state governments in the Southwest region of Nigeria. This is worrisome given that the region has the highest number of small businesses through which adequate revenue can be generated to improve the revenue pool of the government. In the same vein, only a few studies jointly captured religiosity, tax knowledge and quality public governance as non-economic factors to determine tax compliance in the study location. All these constituted a vacuum in literature that this study filled. Based on the discoveries made, it was concluded that there is a statistically significant effect of religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality on taxpayers’ compliance in Southwest, Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that:

The religious values held by citizens in Southwest zone of Nigeria can be used to encourage them to increase their willingness to comply with tax laws and regulations.

In order to improve taxpayers’ attitude, tax authorities should also continue the taxpayers’ education and enlightenment programmes regularly.

Effort must be made by governments at all levels to engage in activities that indicates their sense of accountability to Nigerians. The perception of quality of governance should be improved by actually imbibing the tenets of representative democracy which will encourage tax payers to comply.

Future researches need to expand the scope of the sample so that it can increase the generalization of the results.

Reference

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Effect of Religiosity, Tax Knowledge and Public Governance Quality on Taxpayers' Compliance in Southwest, Nigeria

Bukola Elizabeth Abiola¹, Olusola Esther Igbekoyi (Ph.D)²^,, Kolawole Mohammed Akande^3*,

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–>

Oluyemi Ayodeji Olayisade⁴

^1,3,4Department of Accounting, College of Social and Management Science, Afe Babalola University, Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria

²Department of Accounting, Faculty of Administration and Management Sciences, Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

Keywords: Religiosity, Tax Knowledge, Public Governance Quality, Taxpayers’ Compliance

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review and Hypothesis Development

Religiosity

Tax Knowledge

Public Governance Quality

Taxpayers’ Compliance

Conceptual Framework

Figure 1 gives the overview of the explained and explanatory variables.

Text Box: Tax Compliance among SMES <img alt="Text Box: • Religiosity
• Tax Knowledge
• Public governance quality
” height=”79″ src=”blob:https://draft.blogger.com/376589e3-c6db-4fa0-a2c4-642dc2f10d49″ v:shapes=”Rectangle_x0020_3″ width=”177″ />

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Fig 1: Conceptual Framework

Source: Author’s Compilation, 2021.

Theoretical Framework

Empirical Review

3. Data and Methods

Table 1: Population of the Study

State(s)	SMEs
Lagos	8,395
Ogun	2,465
Oyo	6,131
Ondo	2,363
Osun	3,007
Ekiti	928
Total	23,289

Source: Author’s Compilation, 2021.

According to Yamane (1964) model, the sample size for this study was 393 respondents. The Yamane model (1964) formula is given as:

n =

Where:

n = sample size

N = the population size

e = level of significance

For the population of 23,289, the sample size based on the formula is:

n = = 393

n =

Where:

n = sample size of each faculty

n! = total sample size

N! = population of each faculty

N = population of the study

Table 2: Sample Size of Each of the Sampled States

State(s)	SMEs
Lagos	n = = 141
Ogun	n = =41
Oyo	n = =103
Ondo	n = =40
Osun	n = =51
Ekiti	n = =16
Total	393

Source: Author’s Computation, 2021.

TPC= f(REL) – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – —— ———— – – – – — – – – – – – – – 3.1

Where:

TPC is Tax Compliance

REL is Religiosity

TPC= f(REL, TAK PGQ) – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – —— —…..——— – – – – — – – – – – – – – 3.2

Where:

TPC is Tax Compliance

REL is Religiosity

TAK is Tax Knowledge

PGQ is Public Governance Quality

Linear representation of the models:

……………………………………….. (3.3)

= Intercept of relationship in the model, u = Error term and is coefficient of the explanatory variables

It is expected that religiosity, tax knowledge and public governance quality will have a positive effect on tax compliance.

Model Specification

Measurement of Variables

Analysis of the Administered Questionnaire

Table 3: Analysis of the Administered Questionnaires

Questionnaires	Responses	Percentage (%)
Number of filled	360	91.6%
Number of Unfilled	0	0%
Number Not Returned	33	8.4%
Total	393	100%

Source: Field Survey, 2021

Table 4: Pearson Correlation

	TAC	REL	TAK	PGQ
TAC	1.000000
REL	0.776756	1.000000
TAK	0.788093	0.341563	1.000000
PGQ	0.449772	0.308770	0.438001	1.000000

Source: Researcher’s Computation (2021).

Table 5: Multiple Regression

Dependent Variable: tax compliance among SMEs in Southwest, Nigeria.

Variables	Coefficient	Std Error	T-Statistic	Prob.
C	4.968	0.362	13.736	0.000
Religiosity	0.354	0.051	6.891	0.000
Tax Knowledge	0.220	0.101	2.294	0.031
Public Governance Quality	0.243	0.093	3.526	0.001